Does crime-tourism nexus hold for Pakistan?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ahad ◽  
Zaheer Anwer ◽  
Wasim Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices

PurposeThe primary objective of this study is to investigate the linkage of tourism and crime for Pakistan along with exchange rates, terrorism and domestic prices in the presence of structural breaks over the period 1984–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe order of integration is tested through ADF and PP unit root tests. The robustness of unit root test is testified via structural break unit root test. Furthermore, the authors use Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test to confirm the existence of a long-term theoretical relationship among the variables. For the robustness of cointegration analysis, the authors also employ ARDL bound testing in the presence of structural break years. Moving forward, the authors apply VECM Granger causality to find out the direction of causality. Subsequently, variance decomposition approach and impulse response function are used to distinguish leader from the followers.FindingsThe unit root test shows that the order of integration is one, I(1). The cointegration analysis confirms the long-run relationship between underlying variables. The authors find inverse and significant impact of crime and exchange rate on tourism in the long run. On contrary, domestic prices play a positive and significant role to determine tourism in short and long run. Also, terrorism is found to be insignificant with negative impact. Further, the bidirectional causality between crime and tourism is observed in the long run. Similarly, unidirectional causality from terrorism to exchange and exchange rate to domestic price is observed in the short run.Originality/valueThe contemporary studies on crime-tourism nexus offer limited evidence, as they frequently suffer from omitted variable bias and ignore possible endogeneity issues. This study uses vector autoregressive models to overcome these biases. Similarly, the authors accommodate the role of structural break years through their analysis. Hence, the results offer more credible evidence. Moreover, the authors contribute to the existing tourism demand literature by adding crime as a potential determinate in case of Pakistan.

Dynamic linkages among developed, emerging and frontier capital markets of Asia-Pacific region

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nisha Mary Thomas ◽  
Smita Kashiramka ◽  
Surendra S. Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Thin Body ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Global Investors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between developed, emerging and frontier markets of the Asia-Pacific region during January 2000 to June 2016. Design/methodology/approach Zivot and Andrews’ unit root test is used to examine the existence of unit root in index series in the presence of a structural break. Gregory and Hansen’s test of cointegration is employed to examine the stable long-run relationship between the indices under study. Findings The results suggest that the emerging markets of China and Thailand and the frontier markets of Sri Lanka and Pakistan are fairly segmented from most of the markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Hence, these markets provide good diversification opportunities to global investors. Bidirectional cointegration analysis indicates that emerging and frontier markets influence developed markets. Hence, it can be inferred that the de facto position that only bigger markets influence small markets no longer holds true in the current environment. Practical implications The findings of this study will provide valuable inputs to global investors for creating an optimal investment portfolio. Originality/value This study does a comprehensive examination of market integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It also contributes to the thin body of work done on frontier markets. Unlike past studies, this paper analyzes the bidirectional cointegration relationship to examine if the notion that only bigger markets influence smaller markets holds true or not. Finally, this study employs advanced techniques of unit root test and cointegration test that consider structural breaks in the models.

A validity of environmental Kuznets curve under the role of urbanization, financial development index and foreign direct investment in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Farooq ◽  
Ahsan Anwar ◽  
Muhammad Ahad ◽  
Ghulam Shabbir ◽  
Zulfiqar Ali Imran
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

PurposeThis research aims to inspect the existence of the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC) in the presence of foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and urbanization throughout 1972–2018 for Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachFor time series analysis, Phillips and Perron (PP) and Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root tests are used to confirm the level of integration. For robustness, Kim and Perron (2009)’s structural break unit root test is employed, which identifies the order of integration in the presence of structural break years. Further, combined cointegration analysis is performed to confirm the existence of a long-run association between underlying variables. Furthermore, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis is employed for the robustness of the cointegration approach.FindingsThe cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. The authors find a positive and significant impact of urbanization, FD and foreign development on environmental degradation in the long run. Similarly, only FDI increases environmental degradation in the short run. In addition, the authors find an inverted U-shape relationship between economic growth and environmental quality which, further, confirms the presence of EKC in Pakistan.Originality/valueThis research contributes to applied economics in many ways: the combined effect of urbanization, FD, FDI and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is checked simultaneously. To avoid ambiguity, this study constructs the FD index through the principal component analysis (PCA). Moreover, the role of structural breaks has been considered through the analysis. Novel Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration analysis is employed to detect the existence of long-run relationships among underlying variables.

Exchange rate interest rate linkages in India: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 443-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri ◽  
Swati Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Empirical Reality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the linkages between exchange rate and interest rate in India using quarterly data from Q1 of 1996 to Q4 of 2014. Design/methodology/approach Stationarity properties of data are checked using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Dickey–Fuller test with GLS de-trending (DF-GLS) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests and Perron’s unit root test with structural breaks. Johansen Juselius and Gregory Hansen tests are applied to assess cointegration, and block exogeneity test is used to detect causality among variables. Findings The study finds long-run relationship among interest rate, rupee–dollar exchange rate, capital flows, intervention, inflation differential, money supply differentials, output differentials and trade-balance differentials. However, the interest rate does not explain movements in the exchange rate, directly and indirectly, via capital flows. Intervention by the Central Banks to stabilize exchange rate does not have implications for movements in interest rate. Research limitations/implications The study finds capital flows to be insensitive with respect to interest rates and hence thwarts International Monetary Fund ’s (IMF) claim of using interest rates as a tool to stabilize exchange rate. The much-debated conflict between exchange-rate stabilization and control over interest rates also does not hold up to the empirical reality of India. Originality/value The study augments the existing literature by taking into account the problem of structural break in the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. Three measures of interest rate are used to assess the robustness of results adding to their credibility compared to previous studies.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship Between Real Export, Real Import, Real Exchange Rate, Labor Force and Real Gross Domestic Product in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Shahrun Nizam Abdul Aziz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

This study examined short run and long run relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Specifically, it studied the relationship between real export, real import, labor force participation and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real GDP in Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. These variables were tested in various tests, namely, unit root test, granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR), Johansen Juselius test and Error Correction Term (ECT). The result revealed that all variables were non-stationary at the level form and stationary at first difference in ADF unit root test. The findings also exhibited the existence of bilateral relationships between real export and real GDP, real import and real GDP, as well as labor and real GDP. Nonetheless, there were no relationship found between REER and real GDP. On the other hand, in VAR, the lag optimum was lag 10 because it indicated the smallest value of AIC. Moreover, for Johansen Juselius cointegration test, it showed two cointegrated vector at both, 5% and 1%, level in trace test. In addition, Max-Eigen value test indicated two cointegrated vector at 0.05 and one cointegrated vector at 0.01. As for the Wald test, there were long run cointegration relationship between real GDP and its determinants, namely real export, real import, labor and REER. Apparently, Malaysia, as a small open economy, has relied heavily on foreign trade. Consequently, our domestic economic performance is susceptible to the changes in international markets and exchange rate. Therefore, suitable international policy implementation is vital to ensure Malaysian economy will be able to adjust to current global changes.

Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

Financial development, FDI and economic growth: evidence from Sudan

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1236-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdalla Sirag ◽  
Samira SidAhmed ◽  
Hamisu Sadi Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is widely believed to be contingent on the development of the financial sector. Nevertheless, as the possibility that the effect of financial development on growth being contingent on FDI has been neglected in existing literature, the authors have investigated it in this paper. In general, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and FDI on economic growth in Sudan using annual data from 1970 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach Since most of the macroeconomic variables are subject to unit root problem, the time series data are assessed using unit root and cointegration tests with/without structural break. Moreover, the study uses the fully modified ordinary least squares and the dynamic ordinary least squares techniques to estimate the long-run model. Findings The results of the cointegration tests provide evidence that a long-run relationship exists among variables even after accounting for the structural break. The results show that financial development and FDI are positive and significant in explaining economic growth in Sudan. Financial development is found to be more beneficial to economic growth than FDI. Moreover, the findings reveal that FDI leads to better economic performance through financial development. Interestingly, the findings of the study show that the effect of financial development on economic growth is further enhanced by the inflows of FDI. Research limitations/implications The government should focus on promoting FDI in more productive sectors. In addition, further cooperation with multinational enterprises is needed to increase FDI in the country. Originality/value This is the first paper that empirically examines both the interlinked impact of FDI on growth through financial development and the impact of financial development on economic growth through FDI in Sudan using appropriate econometric methods.

Effects of renewable energy consumption and trade on environmental pollution

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Karasoy ◽  
Selçuk Akçay
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of (non-renewable and renewable) energy consumption and trade on environmental pollution in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) setting in Turkey for the 1965–2016 period.Design/methodology/approachBesides conventionally used unit root tests, Zivot–Andrews unit-root test is also employed to account for a possible structural break. To investigate the interrelationships among the variables, the autoregressive distributed lag and the vector error correction methodologies are employed.FindingsThe results verify the EKC hypothesis. Moreover, increases in trade and non-renewable energy consumption rise carbon emissions in long run, while renewable energy consumption reduces it in both short- and long-run. The causality analysis reveals that there are bi-directional long-run causalities between non-renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and between trade and carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the renewable energy consumption-income nexus in both short- and long-run. For the non-renewable energy consumption-income nexus, the neutrality hypothesis holds only in short-run and the conservation hypothesis holds only in long-run.Originality/valueThis is the first study which incorporates both renewable energy consumption and trade into its environmental pollution model for Turkey. Moreover, by investigating short- and long-run causalities among the employed variables, more robust policy implications are put forward. Lastly, this study employs a longer sample period and considers a structural break in its models.

Does gender matter for the unemployment hysteresis effect among Asian countries?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Zheng Li ◽  
Chi Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Hysteresis Effect ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study aims to examine the unemployment hysteresis effects from the perspective of the heterogeneity of genders within Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the annual unemployment rate dataset of 12 Asian countries ranging from 1991–2020. Traditional unit root tests are initially employed to investigate the unemployment hysteresis effect. Considering the structural break and cross-section dependence problems, the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) and the Kapetanios–Snell–Shin (KSS) panel unit root test with Fourier functions have proven to be more applicable.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that the unemployment rate is stationary in most Asian regions for both females and males, which confirms the mean reversion process of the natural unemployment hypothesis. This suggests that these countries' unemployment rates are flexible to quickly revert to its long-run equilibrium determined by the labor markets. However, only the female unemployment rate in Pakistan and Nepal and adult female unemployment rates in these two economies present non-stationary series. In line with the unemployment hysteresis effect, it means shocks will leave a permanent impact on their labor market.Practical implicationsOn the one hand, in most of the Asian countries, it can be inferred that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment is temporary because the natural unemployment hypothesis holds. Therefore, policymakers may consider using monetary policy as a tool to control inflation and stimulate growth during a recession. Such policy measures should not have a long-run impact on unemployment or cause a permanent shift in the natural unemployment rate. On the other hand, the government should implement active labor protective programs such as education or training schemes, job search assistance programs and maternity protection, especially for female adults, to reduce the negative shocks in the economic downturn, which is beneficial for them away from being long-term unemployed. It is also necessary to improve the labor unions to reduce the discrimination between female and male labors.Originality/valueThis paper innovatively concentrates on the heterogeneity performances between genders about the unemployment hysteresis effect within Asian countries. Furthermore, taking into account the age-specific characteristics, the youth and adult unemployment rates have been investigated. Additionally, the approximation of bootstrap distribution and the advanced panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function are employed. Thereby, targeted policies for the government can be applied to reduce the discrimination and negative shocks on female adults in the labor market.

Determinants of foreign exchange reserve accumulation: empirical evidence from foreign exchange constrained economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher ◽  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Accumulation ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of foreign exchange reserve accumulation in a foreign exchange constrained economy, namely Ethiopia, over the period of 1981 up to 2017.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used. Besides, standard unit-root tests such as augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests are employed to check for the stationarity of the series.FindingsAccording to the results of unit-root tests, our variables are found to be a mixture of I(0) and I(1), and none of our series is I(2). The results of our ARDL model indicates, in the short run, foreign exchange reserve accumulation of Ethiopia is negatively and significantly affected by inflation rate and exchange rate. But, in the long run, inflation rate affects foreign exchange reserve positively and significantly. Additionally, in the long run, external debt affects foreign exchange reserve positively. Similar to its effect in the short run, exchange rate also affects foreign exchange reserve negatively in the long run.Originality/valueThis paper has its originality as it contributes in reasoning out the factors determining, both in the short-run and long-run, foreign exchange deficiency in any developing country with foreign exchange deficiency, taking Ethiopian economy as a case study, and fills the scarce literature on the determinants of foreign exchange reserve accumulation in a developing country.

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