scholarly journals Corporate performance volatility: a micro-level perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Elvis Kwame Agyapong
Keyword(s):  
Durable Goods ◽  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Performance Volatility

PurposeThis study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs error correction autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model (ECM) to examine how micro-level variables influence volatility associated with corporate performance in the short run.FindingsThis paper finds that disaggregated or micro-level variables examined, tend to exhibit features that are not readily apparent from the aggregate variable from which such variables are derived. For instance, reported empirical estimate suggests that, growth in expenditures on services and nondurable goods tend to lower volatility associated with corporate performance, whereas government expenditures and expenditures on durable goods rather worsens volatility associated with corporate performance, all things being equal. Additionally, presented empirical estimates further provide evidence suggesting that macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty significantly moderate or influence the extent to which disaggregated variables impact corporate performance volatility.Originality/valueCompared to related studies in the reviewed literature, this study rather examines volatility associated with corporate performance instead of the corporate performance indicator itself. Additionally, this paper also examines how disaggregated variable instead of aggregate variables impact such volatility. Finally, the moderating role of key macroeconomic conditions in such a relationship is also examined.

Corporate performance volatility and adverse macroeconomic conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causal Interaction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Performance Volatility

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse macroeconomic conditions in a bivariate causality analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to Granger causality analysis in verifying significant causal interactions if any, between corporate performance volatility and seven macroeconomic conditions or variables.FindingsThis study finds that economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have bidirectional causal interaction with corporate performance volatility. In addition, estimated results further suggest significant unidirectional causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and inflation expectations, exchange rate volatility, inflation and inflation uncertainty, with direction of causality running from the macroeconomic variables toward corporate performance volatility. This study, however, found no significant causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and recessionary probability or likelihood of recession.Practical implicationsThis study’s conclusions could have significant and critical policy implications for key corporate policymakers responsible for corporate performance strategy. Various causal interactions identified could inform policy framework and, subsequently, strategies geared toward minimizing volatility associated with performance during episodes of any of the various macroeconomic conditions examined in this study.Originality/valueThe uniqueness of this study stems from its focus on corporate performance volatility instead of corporate performance and potential causal interactions it might have with key adverse macroeconomic conditions, some of which have not been examined in previous studies according to reviewed literature.

Expectations, uncertainty and risk premium

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This study aims to examine short- and long-run effects of specific macroeconomic conditions on risk premium estimates on lending. Design/methodology/approach Empirical estimates are based on error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models. Findings The results suggest that, in the short run, inflation expectations, recession expectations and actual inflationary conditions tend to have a significant impact on risk premium estimates; in the long run, however, only inflation expectations and recession expectations are significant in risk premium estimates on lending. Originality/value This study examines how specific conditions of uncertainty and expectations influence variability in risk premium estimates on lending in the US economy.

Banking industry stability and investment dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Elvis Kwame Agyapong
Keyword(s):  
Banking Industry ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Dynamics ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Stability

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate how strands of differing investments influence stability in the banking industry using data from 37 countries in Sub-Sahara Africa from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses in the study were carried out using a two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation methodology. Findings Empirical results suggest that generally, growth in investments by governments, foreign investments and private domestic investments have a significant positive impact in stabilizing the banking industry. The empirical estimates further suggest that macroeconomic conditions such as macroeconomic uncertainty adversely affects the liquid reserve position of banks even during periods of appreciable growth in investments. Originality/value The authors present a different approach to the banking industry discourse. Instead of surmise the relationship with the direction of impact often emanating from the banking industry to other variables of interest or conditions, this study rather examines how investment dynamics among economies influence the stability of the banking industry overtime. In contrast to related studies, this study examines how strands of investment variables influence the stability of the banking industry. Specifically, this study is modeled to examine the extent to which variability in investment growth (using different investment variables) affect stability in the banking industry.

Inflation expectations, economic policy ambiguity and micro-level consumer behavior

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-395
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Average Consumer ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Level Analysis

Purpose This paper aims to augment existing literature by examining how specific macroeconomic conditions (economic policy uncertainty and inflation expectations) influence micro-level (instead of macro-level) behavioral dynamics exhibited by the average consumer. Design/methodology/approach This study conducted empirical analysis using structural vector autoregressive estimation technique. Findings The average consumer tends to exhibit significantly varied micro-level expenditure behavioral patterns not readily observed at the macro- or aggregate-level expenditures. For instance, this study finds that in the short run, inflation expectations tend to have a significant positive impact on both non-durable goods and service expenditures; the same condition, however, tends to have a negative impact on durable goods. Additionally, this study also finds that economic policy uncertainty, unlike inflation expectations, tends to constrain consumption expenditures at all micro levels with very significant variations in decline in expenditures made. Originality/value Unlike legion of empirical work based on macro-level analysis, this study adopts a micro-level analysis and also engages two macroeconomic conditions (inflation expectations and economic policy uncertainty) not already examined in existing studies.

scholarly journals Bank performance variability and strands of inflationary conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-253
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Hod Anyigba
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Key Performance Indicators ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Us

PurposeThis study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.FindingsEmpirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.Practical implicationsApart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.Originality/valueThe uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

Economic hardship and suicides

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 1348-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Korhonen ◽  
Mikko Puhakka ◽  
Matti Viren
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Simultaneous Estimation ◽  
Habit Persistence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of aggregate suicides in 15 OECD countries during 1960-2010 using an economic model where changes in the welfare of consumers play the critical role for determining the number of suicides. Design/methodology/approach The hardship index based on economic theory is developed. In estimating the model, the authors apply the Pesaran et al. (2001) approach that allows the simultaneous estimation of the long-run and short-run parameters. To make sure that the authors’ findings are not specific to their method, the authors also use the generalized method of moments estimation in the panel set-up. Findings The authors found a relatively strong positive relationship between macroeconomic conditions, especially changes in aggregate consumption, and suicides. The relationship appears to be robust also in terms of the various control variables cited in the literature. The hardship index which is based on the habit persistence model of consumption predicts and explains the long-term behavior of suicides in most of the countries. Thus, the hardship index is a better economic explanatory variable than the unemployment rate or other proxies describing economic conditions. Originality/value Marrying the economic theory and econometric methods produces a reasonable empirical model to explain the connection between aggregate economic conditions and suicides.

Granger-causes of the Ringgit-US dollar exchange rate after 2005

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-96
Author(s):  
Yoke Yue Kan ◽  
Markus Leibrecht
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Prior Literature

Purpose This study aims to investigate Granger-causal relations between the Ringgit-USD exchange rate and selected domestic and international economic variables after the flotation of the Ringgit beginning with 25 July 2005. Design/methodology/approach The study uses lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to test for Granger-causality. To visualize short-run dynamics in the Malaysian Ringgit (RM)-USD exchange rate to shocks in predictor variables, generalized impulse-response functions (Pesaran and Shin, 1998) are derived from the estimated LA-VAR models. Findings Results based on LA-VAR generalized impulse responses and data measured in daily frequency indicate strong Granger-causal relationships with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and oil prices. Evidence is also indicative for a causal relationship with the Shanghai Composite Index. Positive shocks in these three variables lead an appreciation of the Ringgit. Practical implications These results provide insights for policymakers in East Asia in their attempt to manage the floating of their currency. Originality/value The paper adds to existing empirical literature in three ways. First, it investigates the RM-USD exchange rate after its managed flotation beginning with 25 July 2005. Second, the study provides results for exchange rates measured in two frequencies, namely, daily and monthly. Third, the empirical LA-VAR model applied includes variables capturing economic and financial conditions in China. Prior literature puts a focus on macroeconomic conditions in the USA. Yet, since 2009, China has been the largest trading partner of Malaysia.

The effect of sentiment on commercial real estate returns: investor and occupier perspectives

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Shing Cheung ◽  
Joshua Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Estate Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeReal estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore impedes informed rational arbitrageurs to trade against mispricing. Thus, real estate returns are prone to sentiment-driven behaviours. Will the impacts on asset returns be identical for different types of sentiment?Design/methodology/approachThis study argues that not all sentiment effects are created equal. Using the bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this paper examines how occupier sentiment versus investor sentiment contributes to the short-run and long-run dynamics of commercial real estate returns in Australia.FindingsThe empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment and occupier sentiment influence return asymmetrically after macroeconomic conditions are controlled for.Practical implicationsThe sectoral analysis further reveals that sector-specific sentiment plays a significant role in explaining commercial real estate returns. Furthermore, notable improvement is found in producing more accurate prediction in returns, given that measures of occupier and investor sentiment are appropriately specified in the forecast.Originality/valueThis study is novel in the sense that it acknowledges the impacts of occupiers' and investors' sentiment may be fundamentally different. The unique innovation and contribution of this study to behavioural finance literature are based on a new dataset from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors which includes a survey-based measure of investor sentiment and occupier sentiment.

Shapeholders: managing them as allies, partners and significant constituents

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksiy Osiyevskyy ◽  
Vladyslav Biloshapka
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Social Activism ◽  
Business Success ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Relationships ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Common Interests ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The authors review the concept of building relationships with Shapeholders,: a broad group of players that have no financial stake in the company yet can substantively influence it. The process for doing this is the subject of a new book by Mark Kennedy, Shapeholders: Business success in the age of social activism. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine Mark Kennedy’s framework for managing the firm’s shapeholders, a model composed of seven basic steps (7A’s): Align with a purpose, Anticipate, Assess, Avert, Acquiesce, Advance common interests, and Assemble to win. Findings Managing corporate reputation in alliance with enlightened shapeholders is a potential defense against self-aggrandizing schemes to wantonly maximize shareholder value in the short run. Practical implications Managing shapeholders is part of the messy democratic process that works when power is apportioned fairly among those affected by a firm’s decisions, and this process underpins the winning business models of true market leaders. Social implications Stakeholders previously discredited as mere “mosquitos” have gained new power, particularly when their legitimate concerns and unfair treatment resonate with the interests of a significant segment of the public and influential shapeholders. Originality/value Shapeholders can create enormous opportunities for smart managers capable of effectively engaging with them.

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