scholarly journals An analysis of IT software and service exports from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hassan Malik ◽  
Nirmala Velan
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Given ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

PurposeThe aims of the paper are to investigate IT software and service export function for India. First, cointegration tests have been used to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship of the given variables. Second, long-run coefficients and associated error correction mechanism are estimated.Design/methodology/approachAnnual time series data on IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index have been used for the present study during the period 1980–2017. The data are collected from the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), Planning Commission of India, University Grants Commission (UGC) of India, real effective exchange rate (REER) database and World Bank development indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze both short-run and long-run dynamic behaviour of economic variables with appropriate asymptotic inferences.FindingsResults of the analysis show the stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the given variables. It is found that external demand, exchange rate, human capital and openness index have a substantial long-run impact on the IT software and service exports. We also found that the coefficient of error correction term is negative and significant at 1% of the level of significance, which confirms the existence of stable long-run relationship which means adjustment will take place when there is a short-run deviation to its long-run equilibrium after a shock.Research limitations/implicationsThere may be other determinants of software and service exports apart from those considered by the present study. Due to the non-availability of data, the study considers only important determinants that determine the software and service exports in India. The IT exports are an emerging and dynamic field of economic activity and the rate of change is so rapid that the relevance of individual factors may change over time. The study period is also limited to available data.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that policies directed at improving the performance of IT software and service exports should largely consider the long-run behaviour of these variables.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables including IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors, and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

scholarly journals Cointegration analysis of stock market index and exchange rate: The case of Serbian economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Milena Marjanović ◽  
Ivan Mihailović ◽  
Ognjen Dimitrijević
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Since the late 90's, the existence and direction of causality between the capital market and foreign exchange market have attracted significant attention of theoretical and empirical researchers. This is because both of these financial variables have an indisputable role in the development of each country's economy. In this paper we use Johansen procedure and Granger causality test to examine the existence and direction of short-run and long-run dynamics between the leading stock market index BELEX15 and RSD/EUR exchange rate in Serbia. Using ADF test we find that both series are integrated of order one, and since the value of Johansen trace statistics confirmed the existence of cointegration, we have proceeded with estimation of the VECM model. According to our VECM model, the BELEX15 index adjusts to the long-run equilibrium relationship at a rate of 11.72% in each period, while the exchange rate adjusts to the long-run equilibrium relationship at a rate of 2.73%. We also find that there is unidirectional causality and that the market index influences the exchange rate movements in the short-run in terms of Granger.

Growth impact of CO2 emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study. Findings – Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables. Originality/value – Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

An econometric study of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in South Asia: 1972-2009

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 182-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harishankar Vidyarthi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth for a panel of five South Asian economies namely India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal over the period 1972-2009 within multivariate framework. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality test based on panel vector error correction model to examine long-run equilibrium relationship and direction of causation in short run and long run between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in South Asia. Findings – Cointegration result indicates the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions for panel. Causality results suggest that bidirectional causality exist between energy consumption-GDP, and unidirectional causality from carbon emissions to GDP and energy consumption in long run. However, energy consumption causes carbon emissions in short run. Practical implications – Implementing energy efficiency measures and reducing dependence on fossils fuels by scaling up carbon free energy resources like nuclear, renewables including hydropower in energy mix is necessary for sustainable and inclusive growth in the region. Originality/value – South Asia economies need to sacrifice economic growth for reducing the carbon emissions in long run if the region dependence on fossils fuels including coal, oil and natural gas in energy mix continues at same pace.

Exchange rate and long-run price relationship in 19 selected European and LDCs

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-120
Author(s):  
Augustine Chuck Arize ◽  
Ebere Ume Kalu ◽  
Chinwe Okoyeuzu ◽  
John Malindretos
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand. Design/methodology/approach The research design is empirical and ex post facto. This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and error correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of long-run elasticities and the dynamics of the short-run adjustment of exchange rates to changes in domestic and foreign prices. Monthly data are used for the period 1980:1 through 2015:12 (i.e. 432 observations). Findings Results from long-run co-integration analysis, short-run error correction models and persistence profile analysis overwhelmingly confirm the validity of PPP in these two sets of countries regardless the disparity in their relative exchange rate and price characteristics. Research limitations/implications Curiously, several of these empirical studies and still many more, have focused their attention on the experiences of industrialized countries, with a few investigations devoted to LDCs. The evidence is even scarcer in Africa. Clearly, the acceptance of any hypothesis as a credible explanation of economic reality hinges on the robustness of the hypothesis across countries with different economic and institutional frameworks. Practical implications Knowledge of the extent to which exchange rate and relative prices can be linked in the long run is important for the design and management of inflation and the implementation of monetary policy. For instance, policy actions aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy can obtain results that are, at best, uncertain in the absence of correct characterization of the PPP dynamics. Moreover, structural and macroeconomic adjustment programs implemented in these countries to achieve economic growth and external competitiveness could be unsuccessful if flawed estimates of PPP exchange rates are retained. Originality/value Several empirical studies have been done to prove the validity or otherwise of the PPP. Unlike prior authors, this study makes a comparative study of the applicability of the PPP in selected LDC on one hand and European countries.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on Stock Market Returns Volatility in India.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

An empirical note on entrepreneurship and unemployment

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E Payne
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Capita Personal Income

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extend the existing literature on the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the unemployment rate (UR) in the use of the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity. Design/methodology/approach – Recently developed panel unit root tests with recognition of cross-sectional dependence and panel cointegration/error correction modeling techniques are applied to US States. Findings – The results indicate that the rate of entrepreneurship, the UR, and real per capita personal income are cointegrated. The panel error correction model reveals that bidirectional causality exists among the variables in both the short run and long run. With respect to entrepreneurship, an increase in the UR increases the rate of entrepreneurship, in turn, an increase in the rate of entrepreneurship lowers the UR. Moreover, the results also show a positive bidirectional relationship between the rate of entrepreneurship and real per capita personal income. Originality/value – Unlike other standard measures of entrepreneurship, this is the first empirical study of the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the UR using the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity.

An examination of the structure and dynamics of Singapore's maturing Central Area office market

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 485-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hin David Ho ◽  
Satyanarain Rengarajan ◽  
John Glascock
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Office Space ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Employment ◽  
Office Rent

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the structure and dynamics of Singapore's Central Area office market. A long-run equilibrium relationship is tested and a short-run adjustment error correction model are estimated, incorporating appropriate serial error correction. The long-run equation is estimated for office rent, with office employment and available stock. Design/methodology/approach – With the vector error correction model (VECM), the lagged rent, available stock, office employment, vacancy and occupied stock (OS) can impact the rental adjustment process. Equilibrium rent on the whole reacts positively to lagged rents, available stock, office employment, OS and negatively to vacancy rates (VC). Past levels of positive change in VC and rental growth can have negative effects on current OS. Findings – While good economic conditions signaled by increases in rents increase the supply of new stock (available space), higher rents and VC dampen the long-term occupied space (space absorption) in accordance with economic theory. Available stock can be forecasted by past rent and absorption levels owing to the developer's profit-driven nature. Research limitations/implications – An understanding of the interaction between the macroeconomic variables and the Central Area office market is useful to domestic and foreign investors and developers, who then can better evaluate their decision making in commercial real estate investment and development projects. Practical implications – It is implicit that the Singapore Central Area office market requires at least a year before any rental increase can potentially dampen the space demanded. Firms are attracted to locate there owing to agglomeration economies and they are willing to pay premium office rents in conjunction with office space intensification in the Central Area. Newly built space is positively affected by past rents. Urban Redevelopment Authority and private real estate developers should be wary of excess office sector vacancies by avoiding over supply, even though an increase in the supply of office space in the Central Area can have a positive impact on office rent in the longer term. Most of the office space development would tend to meet the demand in the long run. Rental stickiness is exemplified as rental changes are affected by lagged rent. Social implications – Policy makers are better enabled to stabilize the office sectors of the real estate market if so required. Originality/value – The paper adopts the VECM and validated by empirical evidence, to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term corrections underlying the dynamics of the Singapore Central office market. Delay in the restoration of equilibrium in real estate markets is attributed to factors like lease terms and supply lags.

Determinants of capital structure; a sector-level analysis for Indian manufacturing firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1033-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Non Parametric

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the determinants of capital structure and their long-run equilibrium relationships with firm-specific and macroeconomic indicators for Indian manufacturing firms.Design/methodology/approachThe study is conducted using the panel semi-parametric and non-parametric regression models to identify the key determinants of capital structure. Panel cointegration models are also employed for analyzing the long-run equilibrium association of capital structure with its determinants.FindingsThe study finds that each manufacturing sector has unique determinants of capital structure. The debt level is significantly affected by asset tangibility, growth opportunity, effective tax rate, non-debt tax shield, cash flow, profitability, firm size, foreign investment, government borrowing, economic growth, and interest rate. All these firm-specific and macroeconomic variables have strong long-run equilibrium relationship with capital structure as a whole.Practical Implication of the StudyThe study analyzes the determinants of capital structure for eight manufacturing sectors of India, which helps firm managers and policy-makers to identify appropriate factors that maximize firm value. The sector-specific features of firms may lead to a new path with regard to corporate governance and ownership structure to enhance stakeholder's satisfaction.Originality/valueThe use of semi-parametric and non-parametric panel regression models to analyze the determinants of capital structure, and the use of panel cointegration approach to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between the determinants and its factors are the unique contributions of the present research.

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