scholarly journals The determinants of capitalization rates: evidence from the US real estate markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Larriva ◽  
Peter Linneman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mortgage Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Fannie Mae ◽  
The Us ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Cap Rate

PurposeEstablishing the strength of a novel variable–mortgage debt as a fraction of US gross domestic product (GDP)–on forecasting capitalization rates in both the US office and multifamily sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe authors specifies a vector error correction model (VECM) to the data. VECM are used to address the nonstationarity issues of financial variables while maintaining the information embedded in the levels of the data, as opposed to their differences. The cap rate series used are from Green Street Advisors and represent transaction cap rates which avoids the problem of artificial smoothness found in appraisal-based cap rates.FindingsUsing a VECM specified with the novel variable, unemployment and past cap rates contains enough information to produce more robust forecasts than the traditional variables (return expectations and risk premiums). The method is robust both in and out of sample.Practical implicationsThis has direct implications for governmental policy, offering a path to real estate price stability and growth through mortgage access–functions largely influenced by the Fed and the quasi-federal agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It also offers a timely alternative to interest rate-based forecasting models, which are likely to be less useful as interest rates are to be held low for the foreseeable future.Originality/valueThis study offers a new and highly explanatory variable to the literature while being among the only to model either (1) transactional cap rates (versus appraisal) (2) out-of-sample data (versus in-sample) (3) without the use of the traditional variables thought to be integral to cap rate modelling (return expectations and risk premiums).

Decision time for ACEES Group LLC: to buy or to lease?

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 394-426
Author(s):  
Sanjay Kudrimoti ◽  
Raminder Luther ◽  
Sanjay Jain
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Business Students ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Business Incubator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Valuation

Synopsis As the move from the business incubator loomed, Abdul Khan had to decide where his business should relocate to. ACEES Group LLC, a small consulting firm, had grown from three friends working out of Abdul Khan’s house to a 20-person firm generating more than a million dollars in revenue within five years. This growth had necessitated the need for a larger and more prominent place. Although Abdul knew he did not want to renew the lease at the incubator, and he did not want to move his business too far from its current location, but the decision he had to make was whether ACEES Group should lease a commercial place or buy its own property. He was particularly torn because the real estate prices had fallen considerably, and were now on the mend and interest rates were still low. Research methodology The primary source of materials in the case was an interview with the owner (pseudo name: Abdul Khan). The owner wishes to remain anonymous. The financial statements of the firm produced in the case have been modified by a fixed factor so as to disguise the actual numbers but not materially alter the information in any fashion. Other secondary sources of materials include information about the business incubator program, the MBE certification and its benefits through the State of Florida, real estate and lease rates in Central Florida and other economic information. Relevant courses and levels This case is primarily intended for undergraduate students taking a course in entrepreneurship, real estate investments or financial management, with emphasis on real estate valuation, cash flow forecasting and/or valuation of business. Students should be familiar with time value of money concepts, understand the concept of NPV and IRR, and preferably be comfortable in the use of Excel. This instructor manual provides all calculations of space needs analysis, and discounted cash flow analysis for lease vs buy analysis. A few suggestions to discuss qualitative aspects of this decision making are also included.

Spatial effects and non-linearity in hedonic modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Cajias ◽  
Sebastian Ertl
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Hedonic Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Out Of Sample

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the asymptotic properties and prediction accuracy of two innovative methods proposed along the hedonic debate: the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and the generalized additive model (GAM). Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the asymptotic properties of linear, spatial and non-linear hedonic models based on a very large data set in Germany. The employed functional form is based on the OLS, GWR and the GAM, while the estimation methodology was chosen to be iterative in forecasting, the fitted rents for each quarter based on their 1-quarter-prior functional form. The performance accuracy is measured by traditional indicators such as the error variance and the mean squared (percentage) error. Findings The results provide evidence for a clear disadvantage of the GWR model in out-of-sample forecasts. There exists a strong out-of-sample discrepancy between the GWR and the GAM models, whereas the simplicity of the OLS approach is not substantially outperformed by the GAM approach. Practical implications For policymakers, a more accurate knowledge on market dynamics via hedonic models leads to a more precise market control and to a better understanding of the local factors affecting current and future rents. For institutional researchers, instead, the findings are essential and might be used as a guide when valuing residential portfolios and forecasting cashflows. Even though this study analyses residential real estate, the results should be of interest to all forms of real estate investments. Originality/value Sample size is essential when deriving the asymptotic properties of hedonic models. Whit this study covering more than 570,000 observations, this study constitutes – to the authors’ knowledge – one of the largest data sets used for spatial real estate analysis.

Asset concentration in the US agricultural balance sheet: a relative information approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-512
Author(s):  
Gulcan Onel ◽  
Jaclyn Kropp ◽  
Charles B. Moss
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
State Level ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inequality Measures ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose Over the past four decades, real values of farm real estate and the share of assets on farmers’ balance sheets attributed to farm real estate have increased. The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that explain the concentration of the US agricultural balance sheet around a particular asset, farm real estate, and the extent to which the degree of asset concentration varies across United States Department of Agriculture production regions. Design/methodology/approach State-level data from 48 states and entropy-based inequality measures are used to examine changes in asset distributions (real estate vs non-real estate assets) both within and between regions over time. Findings The agricultural balance sheet is found to concentrate into real estate in the USA over the period 1960-2003 with the rate of concentration varying across production regions. In some regions, the concentration is mainly due to changes in real estate prices, while in other regions concentration is also driven by changes in real estate holdings or changes in total factor productivity. Originality/value This study formally estimates the degree to which the concentration of balance sheet items can be explained by the observed changes in farm real estate prices relative to observed changes in agricultural factor productivity or changes in farm real estate holdings. The computed regional differences in asset concentration and its main drivers have implications for changes in equity and solvency positions of farmers as well as agricultural lenders’ risk exposure.

The dynamics of housing affordability and housing demand analysis in Ankara

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 828-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akin Öztürk ◽  
Yunus Emre Kapusuz ◽  
Harun Tanrıvermiş
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type

Purpose Information about the current and future composition of the population in terms of household size and the desired housing preferences provides a good foundation for determining current and future housing needs. The policy-makers and developers can also use such knowledge as a starting point in their housing and commercial real estate investment decisions. In Turkey, urbanization and housing issues have accompanied the growth of industrialization. Within the scope of the country’s urbanization history, various instruments have been used to solve the lack of housing issues. The constructed houses should be accessible or affordable by fixed-income earners in the middle and lower socio-economic classes, who are mostly excluded. In particular, the real estate development sector has taken manageable risks by closely following the changing social and economic conditions and developing a variety of housing concepts. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the housing sector situation and affordability issues and then use time series analysis to present relationships between macroeconomic factors and housing demand in Ankara region. Design/methodology/approach The approach uses a survey of recent housing projects cover 2016 to 2018 for housing affordability conditions. Also, the study uses the Johansen co-integration test, variance analysis and impulse-response test to explain the relationships between macroeconomic indicators and housing demand for Ankara. Findings According to the results of time series analysis, the macroeconomic factors are affecting the demand and the number of houses sold. The research results try to find a negative or positive correlation between the numbers of houses sold and the monthly macroeconomic variables. Mortgage interest rates, usage permits, construction permits and household expenditure were found the most correlated with housing sold as a representative proxy of housing demand. This paper claims that current housing affordability is related to current housing supply and demand variables. If housing supply (as construction and usage permits) and income (as interest rates and expenditures) are at favorable levels, then housing transaction volumes increase. Research limitations/implications This paper highlights the need to examine how to assist developers to more rapidly develop knowledge and experience to reflect the implications of change in practice. This paper is formulating a housing demand model for real estate developers, using number of house sales and other administrative statistics in Ankara region. Practical implications If macroeconomic conditions are stable, then this encourages consumers to invest for housing whether they are affordable or not. According to the results, key factors of housing market are based on interest rates, income expectation and gaining social status. The consumers anymore not only want to buy a house to live and also want to gaining prestige. Originality/value The paper not only shows that current price is affordable or not but also supports why price is going up although price is not affordable. The findings identify how the market is developing and adhering to a product model development theory. The paper is different from previous studies because of the use of monthly income and supply proxies together in Turkey with time series model. These results are close to the theoretical expectations and provide good indicators for policy-makers.

scholarly journals The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 210-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony A. DeFusco ◽  
Andrew Paciorek
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Mortgage Debt ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Fannie Mae ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Loan Size ◽  
Loan Limit ◽  
Mortgage Demand

This paper provides novel estimates of the interest rate elasticity of mortgage demand by measuring the degree of bunching in response to a discrete jump in interest rates at the conforming loan limit—the maximum loan size eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reduces first mortgage demand by between 2 and 3 percent. One-third of this response is driven by borrowers who take out second mortgages, which implies that total mortgage debt only declines by 1.5 to 2 percent. (JEL D14, G21, R21, R31)

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

Central bank action will drive global equity markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Significance This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated tightening in US monetary policy and many country-specific risks, such as the standoff between Greece and its creditors, equity market sentiment remains supported by accommodative monetary policies worldwide and expectations of the US monetary policy tightening being gradual. Impacts Market volatility could increase further, as better-than-expected economic data in the euro-area vies with weaker-than-anticipated US data. Decoupling of surging equity prices and weak economic fundamentals threatens the rally's sustainability, increasing scope for volatility. This decoupling is most pronounced in China, where weak economic data prompt buying of equities in anticipation of stimulus measures. The greatest risk in equity markets is uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and their impact on emerging markets.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

Global Magnitsky Act will extend US sanctions reach

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Official Corruption ◽  
National Defence

Subject The US Global Magnitsky Act. Significance Congress passed the Global Magnitsky Act as part of an annual national defence bill on December 8 and President Barack Obama is expected to sign it before the end of the year. The legislation allows the president to impose sanctions against individuals tied to official corruption and extrajudicial killings carried out in retaliation for uncovering illegal or corrupt acts. Impacts Jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Singapore and the United Kingdom may also seek to boost real estate transparency. The White House may use its new sanctioning powers to pressure Iran and burnish its anti-Tehran credentials. The example set by Trump’s future use of the Global Magnitsky Act will be directly correlated with its chance of renewal in 2022.

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