Cyclical comovements of the world equity indexes

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 472-495
Author(s):  
Haigang Zhou

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study synchronization in stock index cycles across 82 countries and the linkage between macroeconomic and financial integration and stock market synchronization. Design/methodology/approach – The author document the synchronization structure of the world equity index cycles and its evolution over time. The author examine the explanatory power of various economic and financial variables on cycle comovements. Findings – Trade openness, capital openness, and an EU membership contribute to higher stock index cycle synchronization. Additionally, the macroeconomic and financial variables have asymmetric impacts on countries of different development levels. Originality/value – The author is the first to thoroughly chronicle the turning points, i.e., bear and bull regimes, of world equity indexes and empirically examine determinants of their cyclical comovement across nations.

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 410-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sruthi Rajan ◽  
Shijin Santhakumar

Purpose The innovations in fundamentals coupled with noise traders induce co-movement in diverse markets. This co-movement in equity markets which is evidenced higher during the turmoil period influences economic fundamentals of a country dissimilar in nature. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether economic fundamentals or investors’ behavior attributable to disturbances across the world are the rationale behind the crisis transmission, and thereby distinguish fundamental-based contagion from investor-induced contagion. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the study investigates the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and stock returns on crisis occurrence using panel probit estimates. Additionally, ordinary least squares estimates controlling the influence of fundamentals on domestic return capture the discrete country effect measuring the influence of domestic as well as foreign economic fundamentals along with foreign returns on the domestic stock index. Findings The empirical results reveal that foreign country stock index returns are having a significant influence on domestic returns besides a prominent role in crisis occurrence. The binary probit model confirmed the influence of both macroeconomic factors and foreign returns in crisis occurrence. The OLS estimates found evidence for investor-induced contagion in the crisis period where the effects of economic fundamentals are small in comparison to foreign market returns that are mainly dominant in pre- and post-crisis period. Research limitations/implications The propagation of crisis from one market to other would enable the policy makers to make clear regulations at right time to control for the crisis in future. The results can help the policy makers as well as investors in reducing the impact of the crisis in future by clearly monitoring the behavior of the factors under study. Originality/value The current study addresses the role of macro fundamentals and investors influence in crisis propagation. Adopting subprime crisis of 2008-2009 as a reference point and separating the sample period into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period, the study explains how badly the other 30 markets impacted the crisis that emerged in the USA.


2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Inder Sekhar Yadav ◽  
Phanindra Goyari ◽  
Ram Kumar Mishra

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic volatility for developing and emerging economies of Asia. Design/methodology/approach The effects of financial integration and dynamics of macroeconomic volatility over time and across different groups of Asian economies vis-à-vis advanced economies are investigated using four different variables such as consumption, output, income and the ratio of consumption to income. Further, an empirical link between the degree of international financial integration and macroeconomic volatility for Asian economies is econometrically investigated using generalized method of moments (GMM) system one-step estimator. Findings Macroeconomic volatilities of per capita output and consumption growth tend to be lower for advanced economies compared to Asian economies. The computed cross-sectional median of the volatility of consumption, output, income and the ratio of consumption volatility to income suggested that the volatility of advanced economies is lower compared to all the regions of Asia. GMM results suggested that the financial openness, trade openness and broad money are negatively and significantly associated with macroeconomic volatility whereas inflation is positively and significantly associated with macroeconomic volatility but the magnitude of trade openness is found to be negligible. Research limitations/implications The present study has not included the effects of other country-specific variables (such as fiscal policy volatility) and other external factors to understand macroeconomic volatility. Practical implications High integration of economies promote economic growth, reduce macroeconomic volatility and reduce vulnerability to external shocks. This implies that policy makers should thrive to reform and create institutional infrastructure to deepen the integration. Originality/value The paper is an important empirical contribution toward examining the effects of financial integration on dynamics of macroeconomic volatility for a large number of Asian developing and emerging economics over time and across different groups using recent data and latest analytical framework and techniques.


2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 534-548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andros Gregoriou ◽  
Jerome Healy ◽  
Jairaj Gupta

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants affecting the stock prices of telecommunications firms in both developed and developing countries around the world. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis is performed using panel data from 160 countries and 45 companies, covering the time period from 2000 to 2011. To identify the significant factors, company level firm-specific financial and non-financial factors have been analyzed that are expected to bear significant impact on price volatility of telecommunications stock. Findings – The test results reveal that capital expenditure and book value are the most significant factors. Dividends and debt levels only affect prices significantly in specification tests with either time-series or cross-sectional effects, whereas firms’ earnings and numbers of mobile internet subscribers do not contribute to the explanatory power of telecommunication stock price variability. Practical implications – The study sheds light to the potential investors in evaluating the risk associated with investment in stocks of telecommunications firms and take informed investment decisions. Originality/value – This is the first study that presents a comprehensive analysis of determinants affecting the stock prices of telecommunications firms in both developed and developing countries around the world.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Cao ◽  
Ziran Li ◽  
Kees G. Koedijk ◽  
Xiang Gao

PurposeWhile the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.FindingsThe authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imlak Shaikh ◽  
Puja Padhi

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between implied volatility index (India VIX) and Equity Index (S & P CNX Nifty Index). In addition, the study also analyzes the seasonality of implied volatility index in the form of day-of-the-week effects and option expiration cycle. Design/methodology/approach – This study employs simple OLS estimation to analyze the contemporaneous relationship among the volatility index and stock index. In order to obtain robust results, the analysis has been presented for the calendar years and sub-periods. Moreover, the international evidenced presented for other Asian markets (Japan and China). Findings – The empirical evidences reveal a strong persistence of asymmetry among the India VIX and Nifty stock index, at the same time the magnitude of asymmetry is not identical. The results show that the changes in India VIX occur bigger for the negative return shocks than the positive returns shocks. The similar kinds of results are recorded for the Japan and China volatility index. Particularly, the analysis also supports that India VIX holds seasonality, on the market opening VIX observed to be at its high level, and on the subsequent days it remains low. The results on the options expiration unfold the facts that India VIX remains more normal on the day of expiration. Practical implications – The asymmetric relation and seasonal patterns are quite useful to the volatility traders to price the financial assets when market trades in the high- and low-volatility periods. Originality/value – There is a lack of studies of this kind in the context of emerging markets like India; hence, this is an attempt in this direction. The study provides an insight to the NSE to launch some derivative products (i.e. F & Os) on India VIX that can generate more liquidity in the market for the volatility traders.


2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 174-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Chieh Wang ◽  
Jin-Kui Ye

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the conditionally expected return on size-based portfolios in an emerging market (EM) is determined by the country’s world risk exposure. The authors analyze the degree of financial integration of 23 emerging equity markets grouped into five size portfolios using the conditional international asset pricing model with both world and domestic market risks. The authors also compare the model’s fitness on the predictability of portfolio returns by using world and EM indices. Design/methodology/approach – This study investigates whether large-cap stocks are priced globally and whether mid- and small-cap stocks are strongly influenced by domestic risk factors. The authors first examine the predictability of large-, mid-, and small-cap stock portfolio returns by using global and local variables, and next compare the model fitness by using world and EM indices on the prediction of size-based stock returns. Finally, the authors test whether the world price of covariance risk is the same for different portfolios. Findings – The authors find that the conditional expected returns of large-cap stocks should be priced by global variables. Mid- and small-cap stocks are influenced by domestic variables rather than global variables, and their returns are priced by local residual risks. The test of the conditional asset pricing model shows that the largest stocks have the smallest mean absolute pricing errors (MAE), and their pricing errors are lower in large markets than in small markets. Third, the EM index offers more predictability for the excess returns of mid- and small-cap stocks than the world market index, but the explanatory power of this index does not increase for large-cap stocks. Originality/value – EMs in the past were known as segment markets, with local risk factors more important than global risk factors, suggesting significant benefits from adding EMs to global portfolios. It would be interesting to examine whether financial integration differs for various firm sizes in the markets.


Significance The combination of more COVID-19 cases in parts of the United States and unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus is straining the dollar. In parallel, the euro is benefiting from a push for closer euro-area integration. Nevertheless, the US MSCI equity index has risen by 6.3% this year, with the tech sub-index gaining 25%. Europe’s MSCI equity index is down 7.4%. Impacts ‘Big Tech’ accounts for 40% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 equity index and looks set to continue powering the equity rally. The world stock of negative-yielding sovereign and corporate bonds has almost doubled from end-February to over USD15tn; it may rise more. The euro reached its highest level to the dollar in over two years this month; Europe’s stimulus package should help it maintain momentum. Dollars make up nearly two-thirds of the world stock of foreign exchange reserves; this share will fall very gradually, over years.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (12) ◽  
pp. 1243-1264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asongu Simplice

Purpose – Owing to lack of relevant data on health human resource (HHR) migration, the empirical dimension of the health-worker crisis debate has remained void despite abundant theoretical literature. A health worker crisis is growing in the world. Shortages in health professionals are reaching staggering levels in many parts of the globe. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – A quantile regression approach is used to examine the determinants of health-worker emigration throughout the conditional distributions of health-worker emigration. This provides an investigation of the determinants when existing emigrations levels matter. The author assesses the determinants of emigration in the health sector through-out the conditional distribution of HHR emigration. Findings – The findings have been presented in two main strands: when existing emigration levels are low and when existing emigration levels are high. In the former case (when existing emigration levels are low), wealth-effects have the following implications. First, while economic prosperity is a good tool against nurse brain drain in middle income countries (MICs), health expenditure is a good instrument against physician brain drain in low income countries (LICs). Second, whereas positive demographic change fuels the problem in LICs, it mitigates the issue in their MIC counterparts. Third, savings, government-effectiveness, foreign-aid and inflationary pressures only accentuate the problem for both income groups. Fourth, corruption-control becomes a vital tool for emigration-control in both income-brackets. Fifth, while trade openness mitigates physician emigration in LICs, financial openness has the opposite effect on nurse emigration. In the latter case (when existing immigration levels are high), the following conclusions have been drawn. First, While economic prosperity fights nurse emigration only in LICs, savings is a tool against physician emigration only in their MIC counterparts. Second, health expenditure and inflationary pressures are relevant tools in the battle against physician resource flight. Third, whereas, government effectiveness is an important policy measure for mitigating emigration in LICs, human development plays a similar role in MICs. Fourth, democracy, press-freedom, foreign-aid and financial openness fuel emigration in either income strata. Fifth, population growth and trade openness are important tools in the fight against brain-drain. Sixth, the HIV infection rate is a deterrent only to nurse emigration. Originality/value – This paper complements existing literature by empirically investigating the World Health Organization hypothetical determinants of health-worker migration in the context of globalization when income-levels matter. In plainer terms, the work explores how the wealth of exporting countries play-out in the determinants of HHR emigration.


Author(s):  
Alan L. Mittleman

This chapter focuses on the reality of persons in a world of things. It begins and ends with some relevant views drawn from the Jewish philosophers Buber (1878–1965), Heschel (1907–72), and Joseph B. Soloveitchik (1903–93). Framed by the Jewish concerns, it turns to a philosophical exploration of human personhood. The chapter begins by consiering Sellars's classic essay on the scientific and manifest images of “man-in-the-world.” Sellars shows how urgent and difficult it is to sustain a recognizable image of ourselves as persons in the face of scientism. With additional help from Nagel and Kant, it argues that persons cannot be conceptually scanted in a world of things. Notwithstanding the explanatory power of science, there is more to life than explanation. Explanation of what we are needs supplementing by a conception of who we are, how we should live, and why we matter. Those are questions to which Jewish sources can speak.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 29-31

Purpose Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The problem with developing a reputation of being something of an oracle in the business world is that all of a sudden, everyone expects you to pull off the trick of interpreting the future on a daily basis. Like a freak show circus act or one-hit wonder pop singer, people expect you to perform when they see you, and they expect you to perform the thing that made you famous, even if it is the one thing in the world you don’t want to do. And when you fail to deliver on these heightened expectations, you are dismissed as a one trick pony, however good that trick is in the first place. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


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