Immigration and Islam fears will fuel Germany's PEGIDA

Significance PEGIDA, which was founded in October 2014 in Dresden by Lutz Bachmann, a convicted drug dealer and burglar, has established a pattern of weekly rallies attracting thousands of demonstrators across Germany, although its support is strongest in Dresden, the capital of Saxony. The January 5 rally mobilised a record 18,000 protesters, dwarfing the counter-demonstration of a few thousand people. Notwithstanding the strong resistance to PEGIDA in other German cities -- an estimated 30,000 counter-demonstrators marched on January 5 in Dresden, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Muenster, Berlin and Cologne -- the strength and persistence of the movement have sparked a debate in Germany and beyond about cultural identity and migration in an increasingly fractured and troubled region. Impacts The government may face challenges to reduce the number of asylum seekers, and could turn to other EU member states to ease the pressure. Concerns about immigration and cultural assimilation are decoupled from Germany's economic performance, which remains strong. Although manifested very differently, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are all showing signs of strain over immigration and Islam.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Kariuki ◽  
Maria Lauda Goyayi ◽  
Lizzy Oluwatoyin Ofusori

Purpose This paper aims to examine the role of electronic governance (e-governance) in enabling asylum seekers’ access to public services in the city of Durban, South Africa. Because of COVID-19, the government scaled down its operations, limiting access to public services, including among migrants. Design/methodology/approach Because of COVID-19-related restrictions, a systematic review was conducted of the relevant academic literature as well as the information portals of relevant government departments, municipalities and research reports on migration and refugees in South Africa. A total of 320 peer-reviewed research articles were identified. These were filtered and 68 relevant articles were selected. Findings The study found that asylum seekers have limited access to public services via information communication technology-enabled mechanisms. Whilst the city government has embraced e-governance, it is still in its nascent stages. Research limitations/implications This study was limited to a desktop one because of COVID-19 restrictions and it focused exclusively on asylum seekers. Therefore, its findings can only be generalised to this category of people. Practical implications Future studies on this subject should gather data from all categories of migrants to gain in-depth perspectives. Social implications All spheres of governance in South Africa should recognise asylum seekers as a constituency that deserves access to public services. E-governance can facilitate easier access to these services, and policies need to be aligned with this reality. Originality/value This study examined the efficacy of e-governance in enabling access to government services by asylum seekers during COVID-19. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no other study on this subject was conducted during this period.


Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.


Significance This is a lower forecast than the 170,000 the agency predicted in October, before Sweden reimposed controls at its border with Denmark. The immigration issue is causing strains within the minority two-party coalition government. The junior Green Party has lost several key battles in the last couple of months and is said to be questioning its participation in the government. Some scepticism has crept into the ranks of the Social Democrats as well, with several senior members encouraging the leadership to form a new government with the Moderate Party. Impacts With so many asylum seekers already in the country, Sweden's infrastructure will be pushed to the limit. Every misstep will cause further problems for the government. The Greens will either be allowed to push their own agenda within the government, or will break away. With polls showing a clear majority for the opposition, the temptation to bring down the government may prove too hard to resist. If the opposition joins forces to submit a budget proposal in the autumn, the current minority government must resign.


Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.


Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.


Subject The government's response to returning foreign fighters. Significance The government is grappling with the problem of returning extremist nationals from foreign battlefields as well as Tunisians imprisoned at home and abroad. The status of illegal Tunisian migrants and asylum seekers in Europe has also generated tension, most strongly with Germany. Impacts Pressure from European governments to repatriate Tunisian citizens will further burden state resources and law enforcement efforts. Prosecuting individuals based on a broad definition of terrorism could further alienate and radicalise young Tunisians. Tunisia’s failure to address the problem of radicalisation in prisons may create a new generation of jihadi-salafist leaders.


Subject Switzerland economic performance. Significance Swiss GDP growth flourished over the one-and-a-half-year period through mid-2018, despite increased uncertainty and manufacturing slowdown in both Europe and Asia. Growth has been boosted by net trade and investment. Such strong momentum was interrupted in the third quarter, when real GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, experienced a downturn. Impacts The trade surplus peaked in 2013 at 12.1% of GDP and should fall to 7.0% in 2022, as the franc strengthens. Inflation will average 0.9% in 2018 and 0.7% in 2019, as the economy slows and the oil price is down. If Brexit happens, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will have to sign a new trade deal.


Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.


Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


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