Kenya devolution hurt by local political contests

Subject Devolution in Kenya. Significance The 47 county governments created under the 2010 constitution and voted into office during the 2013 elections represent a powerful new tier of administration in Kenya's political landscape. Nearly two years on, the contours of devolution in practice, and the challenges of implementation, are becoming clearer. Impacts Devolution will not overcome its multiple challenges without the support of the central government, a commitment that is often questioned. Popular support for devolution will not waver easily, though confidence in elected officials could turn on development success. Counties will rarely wield the resources to enact the sort of transformational development that can improve long-term job growth.

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.


Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Subject Balance of powers in Mexico. Significance Since taking office last year, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and his National Renovation Movement (Morena) have taken several measures to make savings in the public sector and to allocate resources to tackling poverty and corruption. Such goals enjoy widespread support, but some of the mechanisms employed to achieve them are concentrating power with the central government. The areas most affected include constitutionally autonomous entities within the administration, other branches of government such as the judiciary, and state governments. Impacts Given the role of poorly paid public servants in state capture, salary cuts may prove counterproductive in fighting corruption. Without a system that impartially investigates, prosecutes and sanctions wrongdoing by public servants, corruption will not abate. Centralisation will strengthen the administration initially but leave it vulnerable in the long term when things do not work as intended.


Subject Profile of Ko Wen-je. Significance There are strong indications that Ko Wen-je, the independent mayor of Taipei, will run for election as Taiwan’s president in January 2020. Presidential hopefuls often launch their election campaigns with US trips to shore up relations with Washington, Taiwan’s key security backer; Ko will make a nine-day visit to the United States later this month. He also stated last month that he was considering forming a new political party; the single reason he would need a party of his own would be to make a run for the presidency. Impacts Ko would be a controversial and probably one-term president. Ko could have a game-changing impact in the short term but is unlikely to alter Taiwan's political landscape fundamentally in the long term. Ko would likely take a more moderate stance on China than Tsai does. Ko's outspokenness is what makes him popular, but it also makes him prone to gaffes that could ultimately undermine him.


Subject The outlook for provincial debt. Significance On September 3, Moody’s downgraded the debt rating of ten sub-national jurisdictions. Since the 2016 deal with holdout creditors, most provinces have been active debt issuers in local and global markets. Thus the debt ‘reprofiling’ announced by the central government in late August, and the higher debt burden due to the combination of recession and devaluation, are raising concerns about their ability to keep servicing their debt. Impacts In the event of a new debt restructuring, limited access to capital markets will force provincial spending cuts. If the financial crisis deepens, provincial debt could again be bailed out by the central government. A more comprehensive reform of provincial finances will be needed to improve fiscal discipline in the long term.


Significance While not expected to win, it will likely overtake the Socialist Party (PSOE). This development will have serious consequences for the PSOE, which faces a dilemma over its coalition preferences and the prospect of long-term decline. Impacts A strong performance by Unidos Podemos will fuel market concerns about the eventual election of a radical anti-austerity government. The prospect of a weak government, unable to meet the targets of the EU Stability and Growth Pact, will cause international unease. Both Rajoy and PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez may be replaced by their parties after the election, adding to uncertainty.


Significance Last year, these transfers hit a record level, as Moscow issued extra money to help regions cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, but this was still not enough to cover all their outgoings. Impacts Central government is to make RUB500bn loans available to less indebted regions to support investment in infrastructure. Ageing populations will necessitate higher spending on regional infrastructure in the medium-to-long term. Regions will weigh environmental, social and governance (ESG) bond issuance, as much of their spending is socially focused.


Significance The president has launched a process at the Constitutional Commission that seeks to address one of the main conditions underpinning the Minsk 2.0 process: the decentralisation of power. So far, proposals presented by Kyiv have failed to appeal to the separatists and the president's reluctance to engage with federalist solutions continues to be a sticking-point. Until this issue can be resolved, the ability of Kyiv to achieve a lasting peace in the east will be limited. Impacts Poroshenko is under Western pressure to deliver on regional decentralisation before the end of this year. Russia will maintain economic, military and security pressure to highlight to Kyiv that a federal solution is the only long-term option. Popular support for reforming the system of regional government could provide an opportunity to devolve special powers to separatist areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 669-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
András Bethlendi ◽  
Csaba Lentner ◽  
László Nagy

Purpose This study aims to assess the sustainability of local governments in a highly centrally regulated fiscal model. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a novel approach, a broad data set of almost 3,200 local governments and network methods. This paper analyses financial data from annual reports and other socio-economic sources using cluster analysis. Findings Even in this model, local governments show significant differences in terms of long-term sustainability. Investments do not compensate for the depreciation of tangible assets at a significant part of local governments. A specific type of soft budget constraint can be noticed. Heads of local governments do not “play” for subsequent ad hoc bailouts by the central government, but rather engage themselves in political competition for development subsidies. A further finding of this study is that shrinking populations itself does not explain the differences in local governments’ financial management. Research limitations/implications Further directions of research include the application of an extended approach to sustainability that gives an account of the availability and quality of local services, as well as aims to identify the qualitative social characteristics (success criteria) of the local government financial management. Practical implications The findings can be useful for policymakers, state audit offices, auditors, voters, users of public services and other stakeholders. Social implications The paper argues in favour of moving away from the financial balance in its narrow sense to a long-term and broader term of financial sustainability. Originality/value The findings provide new empirical evidence about the accounting-based measurement of financial sustainability in local governments.


Subject Israeli voting trends and government stability. Significance Israel's political landscape has been fragmented throughout the country's history, with elections regularly producing unstable coalition governments. There have been 34 governments in the 67 years since the state's founding. Earlier this year parliamentary elections produced yet another coalition government headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his centre right Likud party. Netanyahu was only able to return to power with a coalition of the narrowest possible majority (61 out of 120 seats). This reflects longer-term trends in Israeli politics that will play a major role in the shape and stability of its governments in the years to come. Impacts Long-term economic planning will become harder as smaller parties exact financial concessions for their communities in coalition talks. Centrist parties will have declining influence over policy as low turnout afflicts their support base. Relations with the United States and Europe will become more tense, increasing the risk of Israel's international isolation.


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