Left-wing alliance changes Spain's political landscape

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Socialist Party ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
The Eu

Significance While not expected to win, it will likely overtake the Socialist Party (PSOE). This development will have serious consequences for the PSOE, which faces a dilemma over its coalition preferences and the prospect of long-term decline. Impacts A strong performance by Unidos Podemos will fuel market concerns about the eventual election of a radical anti-austerity government. The prospect of a weak government, unable to meet the targets of the EU Stability and Growth Pact, will cause international unease. Both Rajoy and PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez may be replaced by their parties after the election, adding to uncertainty.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Citizens movement could reshape Spanish centre-right

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Left ◽  
National Election ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
Popular Party ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject A profile of the Citizens movement. Significance The March 2015 Andalucia regional election saw a breakthrough for Citizens and a setback for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's Popular Party (PP). Of Catalan origin, Citizens is now starting to compete across Spain. An opinion poll this month showed a four-way contest, with Citizens, the new left-wing challenger Podemos and the traditional PP and Socialist Party (PSOE) within three points of each other. With a centrist appeal, Citizens has proved its ability to take votes from a range of other parties, as well as attract rebels from the small centre-right Progress and Democracy Union (UPyD). Ahead of regional elections in May and a national election expected in November, Citizens seems poised to play a significant role in the development of the centre-right. Impacts Citizens is standing in all 13 regions in May, and in at least all the provincial capitals in the simultaneous municipal polls. If it performs strongly in May, Rivera may head its lists in Catalonia's September regional election and the subsequent national election. A strong performance elsewhere in May would help Citizens become main alternative in Catalonia to Artur Mas's pro-independence alliance. Citizens' results and centrism may give it a key coalition role, first in regions such as Madrid and Valencia and then nationally. Citizens will continue to expand its organisational presence throughout Spain.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITALY RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF SUPRANATIONAL FISCAL REGULATION

2021 ◽  
pp. 208-221
Author(s):  
Dmitrii О. Mikhalev ◽  
◽  
Egor’ A. Sergeev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

The article presents a retrospective analysis of relations between the government of Italy and the European Union institutions in the context of supranational fiscal regulation in 2002–2019. The authors analyze the influence of external and internal factors on the state of public finance in Italy, note the reasons that made it difficult to meet the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact, study the main issues on the agenda in the EU-Italy relations and their evolution. The authors also come to conclusion that unlike the earlier discussions about correcting budget deficit in Italy, current focus of supranational fiscal governance is shifted to preventing it, what challenges the economic sovereignty of Italy and country’s opportunities to conduct a discretionary fiscal policy.

scholarly journals Fiscal and Other Rules in EU Economic Governance: Helpful, Largely Irrelevant or Unenforceable?

2017 ◽  
Vol 239 ◽  
pp. R3-R13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iain Begg
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
The Political ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
Economic Governance ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
Eu Economic Governance ◽  
The Eu

EU Member States, particularly in the Euro Area, have been pushed to adopt more extensive and intrusive fiscal rules, but what is the evidence that the rules are succeeding? The EU level Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has been – and remains – the most visible rule-book, but it has been complemented by a profusion of national rules and by new provisions on other sources of macroeconomic imbalance. Much of the analysis of rules has concentrated on their technical merits, but tends to neglect the political economy of compliance. This paper examines the latter, looking at compliance with fiscal rules at EU and Member State levels and at the rules-based mechanisms for curbing other macroeconomic imbalances. It concludes that politically driven implementation and enforcement shortcomings have been given too little attention, putting at risk the integrity and effectiveness of the rules.

Kazakhstan's early election looks to cement Nazarbayev

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Northern Kazakhstan ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Central Electoral Commission has registered incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev as the candidate of the ruling NurOtan party. His candidacy is supported by two others, Ak Zhol and the Party of Patriots. The two other officially registered candidates are Turgun Syzdykov of the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan, and the head of the Trade Union Federation, Abelgazi Kussainov (independent). The main unofficial reason for holding the election early is that Astana is worried about the economy and also needs to secure a stable political base in order to ward off any Russian adventurism in northern Kazakhstan. Impacts Nazarbayev's victory will further delay the succession, compounding long-term uncertainty about stability after his death. Nazarbayev will look to maintain close ties with Russia, but China and the EU will be his main economic partners. Following re-election, Nazarbayev will focus on economic issues and look to continue cutting spending.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

Russia will seek influence in Moldova's Gagauz region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
European Parties ◽  
Potential Pressure ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.

Finland's reforms may end period of stagnation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Eu

Subject Finland's economy. Significance The Finnish economy contracted from 2012 to 2014 and grew by only 0.5% last year. It has been facing both structural and cyclical headwinds and since 2010 three different governments have been unable to jump-start it. However, the current one-year-old Finnish government has staked much of its political capital on various reforms which are expected to lead to a resumption of growth and a slower increase in public debt. Impacts Due to demographic trends, Finland's long-term growth potential is estimated to be below 2%. Prolonged economic stagnation in the EU and Russia is likely to depress export and GDP growth. The pension age in Finland will increase automatically as life expectancy rises, which may be a model for other European countries.

Iran could sunder Hungary-Israel illiberal alliance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
United Front ◽  
The Eu

Subject Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Jerusalem. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's July 18-20 visit to Jerusalem invited a great deal of controversy, largely related to his approach to Hungary’s interwar history and erosion of democratic institutions. An ideological affinity and common strategic interests support a warm long-term relationship. Impacts Following the examples of Austria, Poland and Hungary, other CE countries will strengthen their relationship with Israel. Common positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will become increasingly difficult to forge at international forums, including the EU. The profiles of small-country leaders with an illiberal outlook will rise as they show a united front on more issues.

Chile election results point to generational change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Left ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
Election Results

Significance In the parliamentary polls, a strong performance by the Frente Amplio (FA), a new left-wing alliance, and the election of an important contingent of newcomers to Congress, mark the start of a long-delayed generational change in Chilean politics. They also suggest that the run-off presidential ballot on December 17 will be tight. Impacts The results do not necessarily imply a shift to the left, but rather that voters are eager for new faces in politics. Polling methodologies will need to be reviewed after serious errors in forecasts, probably related to coverage of younger voters. The next government, particularly if headed by Pinera, will find managing Congress difficult.

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