Huthi crisis will weaken central government in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Failed State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Wide Scale

Significance The situation in Yemen has deteriorated rapidly after January's takeover of central government by the northern rebel group Ansar Allah, also known as the Huthi movement, and the subsequent resignations of Hadi and Bahah. With tribes and local groups in Sunni-majority areas preparing to resist the Huthi coup, Yemen faces a high risk of wide-scale conflict that could lead towards civil war and failed state status. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, violence would escalate into civil war that assumes a sectarian character and draws in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaida will seek to capitalise on the vacuum, increasing attacks on the Huthis to position itself as the defender of Sunni Islam. The Southern Movement would push for secession while other regions could also try to break from Sana'a's control. Foreign powers have limited leverage influence over the Huthis and thus also over the outcome of negotiations. The Huthis may moderate their position due to Yemen's fragile economy, which depends on substantial international support.

Saudi campaign in Yemen will hinge on local allies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Port City ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The West ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Military Operation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Saudi Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir said that a ten-country coalition was supporting the military operation, code-named 'Storm of Resolve', "to protect and defend the legitimate government" of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Rapid Huthi advances over recent days towards Hadi's seat in the southern port city of Aden prompted him on March 23 to call on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for military intervention. Impacts Yemen will prove the first major leadership test for potential future Saudi king, Defence Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even in a worst case scenario, the conflict is highly unlikely to affect Saudi oil installations. Iran's aid to the Huthis is opportunistic, not strategic; it will not risk re-engagement with the West to expand in Yemen. Sectarian tensions could rise in eastern Saudi Arabia.

Southern Yemen

2019 ◽  
pp. 95-120
Author(s):  
Ariel I. Ahram
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
International Support ◽  
The North ◽  
Oil Deposits

Chapter 4 looks at the Southern Movement (SM) in Yemen. As in Libya, the Southern Movement took advantage of the ouster of a dictatorship and the crumbling of an already weak central government. The Yemen civil war, which erupted as Houthi forces from the north stormed Sana’a, gave the SM a new opportunity to take control in the south. The SM claimed the once-independent South Yemen as its direct forebear. There was disagreement within the SM about whether to seek outright secession or accept federalist devolution. Various factions within the SM vied for control over Yemen’s oil deposits and ports. The SM tried to win international support, particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, claiming that it could be a force for stability.

Road to default: Tracoma holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt securities (BaIDS)

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
A.M. Hafizi ◽  
Shahida Shahimi ◽  
Mohd Hafizuddin Syah Bangaan Abdullah ◽  
M. Badrul Hakimi Daud
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analytical Skills

Subject area Islamic Finance and Investment Study level/applicability Level of program/audience: Advanced undergraduate and postgraduate. Courses Intermediate and Advanced Finance, Economics, Islamic Economics & Finance, Islamic Banking & Finance, Islamic Capital Market and other relevant courses. Specifictopics/syllabus Capital markets instruments, conventional or Islamic. Case overview This case focuses on Tracoma Holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt Securities (BaIDS) amounting to RM 100 million which was issued by Tracoma Holding Berhad in 2005. It was the first issuance of a sukuk (Islamic debt securities or bond) by the company. The proceeds were used to finance its growth and to repay existing bank borrowings and capital requirements. This case is interesting, as it allows students to study the bai bithaman ajil sukuk structure and issuance process in the Malaysian capital market. It also provides basic financial transaction and credit rating of sukuk which requires analytical skills. Being a debt-based facility, the sukuk was subjected to credit rating evaluation by the MARC, the rating agency appointed by the company. Further downgrading of the sukuk meant it would lead to the worst-case scenario. Some actions needed to be taken to solve this issue; therefore, the CFO suggested an urgent meeting with the sukuk holders. Expected learning outcomes The students should be able to: understand the issuance process and the principle of BBA (bai bithamin ajil) in sukuk structure; understand reason(s) methods of fund raising by firm and the allocations of fund; understand the sukuk default issue; analyze the reasons for sukuk default; understand the importance of debt securities credit ratings; and identify investors' protection in the case of sukuk default. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.

scholarly journals Worst-case analysis of electronic circuits based on an analytic forward solver approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 1655-1666
Author(s):  
Mario Schenk ◽  
Annette Muetze ◽  
Klaus Krischan ◽  
Christian Magele
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Quadratic Program ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
State Equations ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sqp Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the worst-case behavior of a given electronic circuit by varying the values of the components in a meaningful way in order not to exceed pre-defined currents or voltages limits during a transient operation. Design/methodology/approach An analytic formulation is used to identify the time-dependent solution of voltages or currents using proper state equations in closed form. Circuits with linear elements can be described by a system of differential equations, while circuits composing nonlinear elements are described by piecewise-linear models. A sequential quadratic program (SQP) is used to find the worst-case scenario. Findings It is found that the worst-case scenario can be obtained with as few solutions to the forward problem as possible by applying an SQP method. Originality/value The SQP method in combination with the analytic forward solver approach shows that the worst-case limit converges in a few steps even if the worst-case limit is not on the boundary of the parameters.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Burundi faces complex succession battle

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Major Theme ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Constitutional Revision

Subject Succession politics ahead of Burundi's 2020 election. Significance With national elections approaching in May 2020 -- the first since President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a controversial third term in 2015, plunging the country into crisis -- the main question facing Burundi is whether he will insist on a fourth mandate (made possible by a 2018 constitutional revision) or accept someone else as his party’s presidential candidate. Nkurunziza is giving away few clues, but whichever way he turns will be fraught with difficulties. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, the succession battle could lead to violence and political assassinations. Ethnicity has gradually disappeared as a major theme in Burundian politics but could resurface amid rising political polarisation. The precarious political climate around the election will increase the risks of regional spillover.

scholarly journals Optimization and Evaluation of Piperacillin-Tobramycin Combination Dosage Regimens againstPseudomonas aeruginosafor Patients with Altered Pharmacokinetics via the Hollow-Fiber Infection Model and Mechanism-Based Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajbharan Yadav ◽  
Kate E. Rogers ◽  
Phillip J. Bergen ◽  
Jürgen B. Bulitta ◽  
Carl M. J. Kirkpatrick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Hollow Fiber ◽  
Critically Ill Patient ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Bacterial Killing ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dosage Regimens ◽  
Time Kill

ABSTRACTAugmented renal clearance (ARC) in critically ill patients can result in suboptimal drug exposures and treatment failure. Combination dosage regimens accounting for ARC have never been optimized and evaluated againstPseudomonas aeruginosaby use of the hollow-fiber infection model (HFIM). Using aP. aeruginosaisolate from a critically ill patient and static-concentration time-kill experiments (SCTKs), we studied clinically relevant piperacillin and tobramycin concentrations, alone and in combinations, against two inocula (105.8and 107.6CFU/ml) over 72 h. We subsequently evaluated the effects of optimized piperacillin (4 g every 4 h [q4h], given as 0.5-h infusions) plus tobramycin (5 mg/kg of body weight q24h, 7 mg/kg q24h, or 10 mg/kg q48h, given as 0.5-h infusions) regimens on killing and regrowth in the HFIM, simulating a creatinine clearance of 250 ml/min. Mechanism-based modeling was performed in S-ADAPT. In SCTKs, piperacillin plus tobramycin (except combinations with 8 mg/liter tobramycin and against the low inoculum) achieved synergistic killing (≥2 log10versus the most active monotherapy at 48 h and 72 h) and prevented regrowth. Piperacillin monotherapy (4 g q4h) in the HFIM provided 2.4-log10initial killing followed by regrowth at 24 h and resistance emergence. Tobramycin monotherapies displayed rapid initial killing (≥5 log10at 13 h) followed by extensive regrowth. As predicted by mechanism-based modeling, the piperacillin plus tobramycin dosage regimens were synergistic and provided ≥5-log10killing with resistance suppression over 8 days in the HFIM. Optimized piperacillin-tobramycin regimens provided significant bacterial killing and suppressed resistance emergence. These regimens appear to be highly promising for effective and early treatment, even in the near-worst-case scenario of ARC.

China positions itself to exploit 'America First'

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The One

Significance Trump affirmed US commitment to the 'one-China policy' vis-à-vis Taiwan, which he had questioned following his election. Nevertheless, Trump's willingness to raise the issue in the first place -- and his other post-election comments on North Korea and the South China Sea -- lead Beijing to expect an unprecedentedly rocky relationship with Washington during his term. Impacts Trump seems now to accept that questioning the one-China policy is taboo, but he could still provoke Beijing regarding Tibet. The combination of uncertain US policy and a China-sceptic government in Taipei will prompt Chinese preparations for a worst-case scenario. US-Russia rapprochement could complicate Beijing's strategic partnership with Moscow. Other governments stand to benefit from a Chinese 'charm offensive', as Beijing attempts to win friends rather than confront Washington.

Rival governments risk permanent division of Yemen

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Humanitarian Relief ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Military

Subject Yemen partition prospects. Significance The August 6 launch by the Huthis and loyalists of former President Ali Abdallah Saleh of a joint ruling body to govern Yemen has led to the collapse of peace talks, and an escalation in the conflict with forces aligned to Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The UN has said that the creation of the Supreme Political Council (SPC) violates Security Council resolutions on resolving the conflict. It also brings Yemen a step closer towards the creation of a new central government in Sana'a rivalling Hadi's government based in Aden. Impacts A new UN peace initiative is unlikely to succeed unless there is a major change in the military situation. Prolonged conflict in Yemen will distract Saudi focus and resources from its domestic economic reform programme. Large-scale humanitarian relief and reconstruction will only begin following a (currently unlikely) deal on a unity government.

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