Global demand dynamics will keep oil price low

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Holding Back ◽  
The Eu

Significance This would feed an already oversupplied market, exacerbating the contango market structure, with prices for future delivery exceeding spot rates. Prices have not returned to their January low thanks to strong US demand, as consumers capitalise on lower prices. Elsewhere, the picture is weaker. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by an average 1.17 million barrels per day (b/d) to 92.45 million b/d in 2015. Impacts The United States will be the leading contributor to projected OECD demand growth, as lower prices boost economic activity. Weaker-than-expected Asian demand and product stock-builds in the first quarter of 2015 will curtail demand ahead. The pace of China's imports will decelerate as its storage approaches its limits. India and Indonesia might have replaced China's demand volumes, but they have abolished subsidies, holding back demand growth. The EU is unlikely to support global demand growth, at least in the short term.

US price-driven oil demand growth will fade in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Major Contributor ◽  
Job Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Demand

Subject US oil demand growth. Significance The oil price collapse from mid-2014 that has caused pain for producers has been a boon to US consumers. With pump prices for gasoline at record lows, US motorists covered 3.186 trillion miles from July 2015 to July this year, smashing the previous record for any previous twelve-month period. This, along with a relatively strong job market and economic growth, has fuelled a resurgence in US oil demand growth after years of post-recession stagnation, and has been a major contributor to the modest price recovery seen over the past six months. Impacts Weaker demand should see a decline in US oil and refined product imports from OPEC and other producers. US refiners may see margins shrink and will look abroad for new customers. However, Latin America is likely to be the most attractive destination for refined product exports from the United States. Weaker demand growth will keep storage levels elevated despite production falls, acting as a drag on US oil and fuel prices. Increases in US freight travel from renewed economic activity will push up diesel prices.

Greece will rely more on gas as transition fuel

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Strategic Trade ◽  
Domestic Energy ◽  
The Eu

Significance Over the past few months, the new Greek government under the leadership of Kyriakos Mitsotakis has demonstrated both its commitment to reforming the domestic energy market and its ability to engage regional partners in a dialogue on cooperation in energy policy. Its ambitious plan to transform Greece into a regional natural gas hub got off to a good start in 2020 with the signing of the landmark international Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed) pipeline agreement on January 3. Impacts If the economy recovers as expected, particularly industry, it should boost domestic demand for gas. In the short term, Greek reliance on Russian gas imports is expected to remain high. Rising volumes of US LNG imports will appease the United States, a strategic trade and military partner of the EU. Greece will strive to position itself as prominent LNG bunkering location in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Domestic factors will weigh on Central Europe’s autos

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Industry ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central Europe’s car industry. Significance The uncertainty surrounding US foreign trade policy has created headwinds to growth for Central Europe (CE) and its automotive sector, even though CE auto exports are highly concentrated on the EU, and CE has only limited trade exposure to the United States. Business and consumer confidence is patchy among some of the fastest-growing economies in the region, such as Poland. Impacts CE auto production will be an important driver of economic growth in 2018-19; Slovakia has the highest per capita auto production globally. Robust GDP growth should help partly offset declines in business or investor confidence in the short term. However, the worsening price competitiveness of the car industry will be a concern.

Indian economy will suffer reduced Iranian oil imports

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Compressed Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Small Impact ◽  
Oil Demand

Significance Countries that do not comply risk secondary sanctions. Impacts Indian refiners will maximise contracted volumes from other Middle Eastern producers. Promoting electric vehicles and compressed natural gas for transport may have a small impact on India’s oil demand growth in the short term. Tensions over sanctions could stymie deepening India-US security ties.

UK economic strategy could bring short-term results

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Conservatism ◽  
Political Backlash ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK economic outlook. Significance The United Kingdom’s economic strategy under Prime Minister Boris Johnson signals a clear break with the fiscal conservatism of the last decade. In order to both boost productivity and growth, and address the political backlash against cuts to public services, the government has promised to implement significant spending increases and tax cuts. Impacts London's plans are to show the EU that it is ready for a no deal and opposition parties that the Conservatives are ready for elections. Extra borrowing will not cause significant market difficulties in the short term, even if there is a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit will increase significantly the pressure to strike free trade agreements with such countries as the United States.

Italy’s new coalition should give short-term stability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Right Wing Populism ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's new government. Significance The threat of an immediate general election from which Matteo Salvini’s League would emerge at the head of a nationalist alliance appears to have been avoided. His former allies, the Five Star Movement (M5S), have shifted their alliance leftwards, going into government with the Democratic Party (PD) and the smaller Free and Equal party. The coalition should be more pro-EU and more fiscally responsible than its populist predecessor. Its durability, however, is very fragile. Impacts The new government will adopt a pro-EU stance when it comes to relations with such countries as Russia, China and the United States. The EU will likely be more accommodating towards Italy’s concerns with immigration policy, now that a pro-EU government is in Rome. The fall of the League is for now a blow to momentum for right-wing populism across the EU.

Briceno’s difficulties will benefit Belize’s UDP

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Government

Significance Belize’s economic slowdown is proving prolonged, driven by the sharp drop in tourist arrivals as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has reduced spending and announced an austerity budget for 2021-22. Tourism looks likely to pick up somewhat this year, but high public debt and unemployment will weigh on economic activity into 2022. Impacts Failure to agree a debt restructuring could force Belize to seek an IMF loan. Protracted debt negotiations will deter investment in the short term. Ongoing vaccine uptake in the United States will be crucial for Belize’s tourism sector, as it is the main tourism source country.

Italy's politics without policy: Balancing Atlanticism and Europeanism in the Middle East

Modern Italy ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaella A. Del Sarto ◽  
Nathalie Tocci
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Specific Interests ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
The Eu

Focusing on Italy's Middle East policies under the second Berlusconi (2001–2006) and the second Prodi (2006–2008) governments, this article assesses the manner and extent to which the observed foreign policy shifts between the two governments can be explained in terms of the rebalancing between a ‘Europeanist’ and a transatlantic orientation. Arguing that Rome's policy towards the Middle East hinges less on Italy's specific interests and objectives in the region and more on whether the preference of the government in power is to foster closer ties to the United States or concentrate on the European Union, the analysis highlights how these swings of the pendulum along the EU–US axis are inextricably linked to a number of underlying structural weaknesses of Rome's foreign policy. In particular, the oscillations can be explained by the prevalence of short-term political (and domestic) considerations and the absence of long-term, substantive political strategies, or, in short, by the phenomenon of ‘politics without policy’ that often characterises Italy's foreign policy.

Markets are overreacting to US price and rates risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Ongoing Support

Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

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