Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Breaking Point ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union

Subject Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter could see a significant worsening of Russia's ties with the West. With the Donbas crisis threatening to erupt into open war as in 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk 2.0 process is strained to breaking-point. Recent months have seen the gradual deterioration of the February peace plan, with heavier skirmishing culminating in the recent battle for Maryinka. In Ukraine, the economic situation remains a major problem. In Central Asia, regional economies are suffering from Russia's slowdown, as some strengthen their integration with Russia as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Tajikistan will try to balance Russia and China

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Important Relationship ◽  
Silk Road Economic Belt ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Ukraine Crisis

Subject Tajikistan's options for joining Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Significance Russia hopes that the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which came into force on January 1, will include Tajikistan. The EEU currently comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May. Moscow is eager to pursue expansion of the EEU as its relations with the West deteriorate as a result of the Ukraine crisis. Russia is also believed to be seeking to put a check on China, whose 'silk road economic belt' will see billions of dollars invested in Central Asia. However, the economic benefits of EEU membership for Tajikistan are debatable and could put at risk its increasingly important relationship with China. Impacts EEU membership risks continuing a trend of significant numbers of Tajikistanis being dependent on working in Russia. EEU success will depend on the extent to which Russia is able to act as a destination for merchandise exports. As Russia's economy slows, the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Tajikistani workers returning home will rise, as will instability risk.

Eurasian Union will be economic not political block

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Influence ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
The West ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Free Movement Of Goods ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Capital Services

Subject Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union Significance The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) came into effect in January 2015, replacing a customs union. The EEU is an attempt to integrate the economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia -- with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May -- into a single market of 175 million people with a combined GDP of 2.4 trillion dollars. Supranational and intergovernmental institutions are intended to ensure the free movement of goods, capital, services and people within the union, which also foresees common transport, agriculture and energy policies, a single currency, and closer future integration. Impacts Following Crimea's annexation, the EEU is increasingly seen by skeptics as a Russian attempt to grow its political influence in Eurasia. Kazakhstan will continue to develop strong relations with China and the West despite being an EEU member. Russia's economic slowdown may have serious consequences for remittance payments back to other EEU member countries.

Japan plays catch-up in Central Asia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Japanese Investment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Silk Road Economic Belt ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Economic Union

Subject Japan-Central Asia ties. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will make a five-nation tour of Central Asia in August -- the first since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006. With the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in effect as of January 1 and China fleshing out its plans for a 'New Silk Road Economic Belt', Japan presents itself as a 'third option' that could dilute China's and Russia's predominance. Impacts Opportunities for Japanese investment will grow, especially in the field of nuclear energy. Security ties could grow under the Abe government's defence reforms, 'proactive pacificism' and new interest in counter-terrorism. South Korea presents itself as another 'third option' and other countries are becoming more active too, even as the US presence recedes.

New laws pose threat to Kyrgyzstan's civil society

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union

Significance The dispute between the United States and Kyrgyzstan revolves around Washington giving imprisoned activist Azimjon Askarov the Human Rights Defender Award in 2014. As Bishkek moves closer to Russia through its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Kyrgyzstan's civil society is under threat. Impacts Harassment, intimidation and attacks on civil society organisations will become more pervasive. A focus on NGOs which receive foreign funding and engage in vaguely defined political activities and on LGBT groups is increasing. Relations between Kyrgyzstan and the West will be increasingly strained.

Nuclear deal will give Iran-Russia ties limited boost

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Islamic Republic ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance Russia played a high-profile role mediating the landmark Iran nuclear agreement announced on July 14. As such, the deal represents a diplomatic victory for Russia and its aim of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The deal also offers the prospect of increased opportunities for Russian business, and for Russian diplomacy in the Middle East, particularly Syria. However, the agreement also raises concerns in Moscow that Iran's detente with the West will weaken Russia's political and economic ties with the Islamic Republic, and see Moscow lose a valuable ally in its stand-off with Washington. Impacts Russia will try to strengthen cooperation with Iran within the Eurasian Economic Union framework. Potential for cooperation in oil and gas will be limited, although Moscow will try to coordinate energy policies with Tehran. Return of Iranian crude to global markets will dampen prices further, increasing Moscow's economic woes. Russia will use promised delivery of air defence systems to Iran as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States.

Armenia's EU deal keeps options open and Russia happy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The West ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
International Standing ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Eu

Significance The agreement is designed to fall short of a full EU association agreement because Armenia remains in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). All parties say they are comfortable with the arrangement. Armenia is the only EEU member to obtain such a partnership deal with the EU. Impacts Armenia has a chance to rebuild its international standing, compromised after its U-turn in 2013. The deal will test the Armenian government's political will to reform. Moscow may try to showcase the deal as a sign of willingness to compromise with the West.

Uzbek-Kazakh thaw can ease tensions and reshape region

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Economic Union

Subject Improvements in Kazakh-Uzbek relations. Significance Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are the key Central Asian states and the dynamics of their relationship have implications for all their neighbours. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's visit to Tashkent on September 16 was hailed as the start of a new era in a sometimes troubled relationship. The change in mood was initiated by Shavqat Mirzioyev, Uzbekistan's president since December 2016. Impacts Uzbekistan is unlikely to reverse its stance on the Eurasian Economic Union, which it is reluctant to join. Kazakh-Uzbek cooperation is likely to include counter-terrorism and other security measures. A better bilateral relationship will facilitate China's Belt and Road initiative in Central Asia.

scholarly journals Экспертное интервью: Предварительные итоги 2020 года для Центральной Азии

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-98
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The West ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Union

В настоящее время мы являемся свидетелями трансформации мирового порядка. Соединённые Штаты и Китай развязывают новую холодную войну, Европейский союз находится в поиске своей самостоятельной роли в мире, на Россию продолжается давление со стороны Запада. Цифровые технологии становятся важнейшим инструментом реализации государствами своей воли. Пандемия, разразившаяся в мире, ускоряет эти процессы. Предложенную Москвой концепцию Большого Евразийского партнёрства можно оценивать как целесообразный проект, но он нуждается в развитии и уточнении. Ключевыми направлениями становятся отношения с Китаем, также претендующего на роль глобального игрока, и со странами Центральной Азии, составляющими сердцевину пространства проекта Большой Евразии, стабильность которого напрямую влияет на безопасность России. Появление горячих точек на границе и внутри Большой Евразии (конфликт в Нагорном Карабахе, волнения в Белоруссии и Киргизии) являются вызовами для России, на которые необходимо своевременно реагировать, чтобы не допустить их разрастания и превращения в угрозы. Об этом старший преподаватель кафедры международных отношений ВИ - ШРМИ ДВФУ Марина Дмитриева поговорила с доктором философских наук, экспертом ООН, председателем Ассоциации экспертов и аналитиков «Изыскания Срединной Азии» Сергеем Ивановичем Масауловым, который долгое время жил и работал в Бишкеке, являлся руководителем аналитических центров, директором Института стратегического анализа и оценки при Президенте КР. We are currently witnessing a transformation of the world order. The United States and China are unleashing a new Cold War, the European Union is in search of its own independent role in the world, and Russia continues to be under pressure from the West. This interview discusses the events that took place in Central Asia in 2020. S. Masaulov expresses the opinion that the coronavirus pandemic did not cause the coup in Kyrgyzstan, but there were internal prerequisites for it, which the authorities further aggravated on the eve of the elections. The interlocutor talks about the possibility of repeating these events in Kazakhstan. The article deals with the issues of China's policy in Central Asia and the possible strengthening of Turkey's influence in the light of recent events in Nagorny Karabakh. In addition, S. Masaulov gives his opinion on the development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the necessary changes in Russia's policy in the Eurasian space.

Water may unite or divide Uzbekistan and Tajikistan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Islamic Militancy ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Significance Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's August 17 visit to Uzbekistan sealed the change in direction in relations between the two neighbouring states that began in 2016. The rapprochement is a major success for Uzbek President Shavqat Mirzioyev in his drive to make his country a central player in Central Asia rather than the other states' most difficult neighbour. Impacts Improved Uzbek-Tajik transit opportunities will help China's Belt and Road project. Increasing bilateral economic ties will strengthen the case for both countries to stay out of the Eurasian Economic Union. Mirzioyev will use regional ties to establish Uzbekistan as a leading player in the fight against Islamic militancy.

Uzbek entry to Eurasian bloc will be slow and halting

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Economy ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union

Subject Possible Uzbek membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. Significance Uzbekistan has long distanced itself from Russian-led post-Soviet blocs, but it is now considering whether to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Its accession would bring another large economy into the EEU, which was originally conceived with Ukraine as a member and has suffered from its absence. The current heavyweight members are Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus; Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have small, weak economies. Impacts EEU membership would give Uzbekistan's economy a major boost with reduced-tariff regimes for its exports. Belarus would welcome the entry of another counterweight to Russian dominance. Western investment in Uzbekistan will be further dwarfed by China and Russia. Russia-China rivalry in Central Asia will be secondary to their common interest in limiting US influence.

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