Armenia's EU deal keeps options open and Russia happy

Significance The agreement is designed to fall short of a full EU association agreement because Armenia remains in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). All parties say they are comfortable with the arrangement. Armenia is the only EEU member to obtain such a partnership deal with the EU. Impacts Armenia has a chance to rebuild its international standing, compromised after its U-turn in 2013. The deal will test the Armenian government's political will to reform. Moscow may try to showcase the deal as a sign of willingness to compromise with the West.

Subject Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter could see a significant worsening of Russia's ties with the West. With the Donbas crisis threatening to erupt into open war as in 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk 2.0 process is strained to breaking-point. Recent months have seen the gradual deterioration of the February peace plan, with heavier skirmishing culminating in the recent battle for Maryinka. In Ukraine, the economic situation remains a major problem. In Central Asia, regional economies are suffering from Russia's slowdown, as some strengthen their integration with Russia as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).


Subject Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union Significance The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) came into effect in January 2015, replacing a customs union. The EEU is an attempt to integrate the economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia -- with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May -- into a single market of 175 million people with a combined GDP of 2.4 trillion dollars. Supranational and intergovernmental institutions are intended to ensure the free movement of goods, capital, services and people within the union, which also foresees common transport, agriculture and energy policies, a single currency, and closer future integration. Impacts Following Crimea's annexation, the EEU is increasingly seen by skeptics as a Russian attempt to grow its political influence in Eurasia. Kazakhstan will continue to develop strong relations with China and the West despite being an EEU member. Russia's economic slowdown may have serious consequences for remittance payments back to other EEU member countries.


Subject Tajikistan's options for joining Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Significance Russia hopes that the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which came into force on January 1, will include Tajikistan. The EEU currently comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, with Kyrgyzstan set to join in May. Moscow is eager to pursue expansion of the EEU as its relations with the West deteriorate as a result of the Ukraine crisis. Russia is also believed to be seeking to put a check on China, whose 'silk road economic belt' will see billions of dollars invested in Central Asia. However, the economic benefits of EEU membership for Tajikistan are debatable and could put at risk its increasingly important relationship with China. Impacts EEU membership risks continuing a trend of significant numbers of Tajikistanis being dependent on working in Russia. EEU success will depend on the extent to which Russia is able to act as a destination for merchandise exports. As Russia's economy slows, the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Tajikistani workers returning home will rise, as will instability risk.


Significance The dispute between the United States and Kyrgyzstan revolves around Washington giving imprisoned activist Azimjon Askarov the Human Rights Defender Award in 2014. As Bishkek moves closer to Russia through its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Kyrgyzstan's civil society is under threat. Impacts Harassment, intimidation and attacks on civil society organisations will become more pervasive. A focus on NGOs which receive foreign funding and engage in vaguely defined political activities and on LGBT groups is increasing. Relations between Kyrgyzstan and the West will be increasingly strained.


Significance Russia played a high-profile role mediating the landmark Iran nuclear agreement announced on July 14. As such, the deal represents a diplomatic victory for Russia and its aim of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The deal also offers the prospect of increased opportunities for Russian business, and for Russian diplomacy in the Middle East, particularly Syria. However, the agreement also raises concerns in Moscow that Iran's detente with the West will weaken Russia's political and economic ties with the Islamic Republic, and see Moscow lose a valuable ally in its stand-off with Washington. Impacts Russia will try to strengthen cooperation with Iran within the Eurasian Economic Union framework. Potential for cooperation in oil and gas will be limited, although Moscow will try to coordinate energy policies with Tehran. Return of Iranian crude to global markets will dampen prices further, increasing Moscow's economic woes. Russia will use promised delivery of air defence systems to Iran as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States.


2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-134
Author(s):  
Benedikt Harzl ◽  
Aistė Mickonytė

In 2013, Armenia abandoned the plan to sign the Association Agreement and to establish a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. Instead, it acceded to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Against this U-turn in Armenia’s integration agenda, this contribution critically investigates the (in)compatibility of participation in the European and the Eurasian legal orders. While the customs union-based regional integration processes preclude Armenia’s participation in both, the authors argue that the strict dichotomy of having to choose one or another transnational legal order and the subsequent legal and political divisions harm Armenia and hamper the achievement of objectives inherent to the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood. It will be argued that this dichotomy may be overcome by a rapprochement between the EU and the EAEU, potentially through contractual relations. Moreover the creative ways in which the EU already provides for differentiated integration could be adapted to enable Armenia reconcile legal approximation with the EU with its engagement within the Eurasian region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 152 ◽  
pp. 102-111
Author(s):  
Igor V. Pilipenko ◽  

This article considers how to enhance the institutional structure of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in order to enable timely decision-making and implementation of governance decisions in the interests of Eurasian integration deepening. We compare the governance structures of the EAEU and the European Union (EU) using the author’s technique and through the lens of theories of neofunctionalism and intergovernmentalism elaborated with respect to the EU. We propose to determine a major driver of the integration process at this stage (the College of the Eurasian Economic Commission or the EAEU member states), to reduce the number of decision-making bodies within the current institutional structure of the EAEU, and to divide clearly authority and competence of remaining bodies to exclude legal controversies in the EAEU.


Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-91
Author(s):  
L. S. Voronkov

The paper is dedicated to the differences between the classical instruments for regulating interstate political and trade-economic relations from those used in the development of regional integration processes. Traditionally, the Eurasian Economic Union is compared with the European Union, considering the EU as a close example to follow in the development of integration processes. At the same time, there exist the other models of integration. The author proposes to pay attention to the other models of integration and based on the analysis of documents, reveals the experience of Northern Europe, which demonstrates effective cooperation without infringing on the sovereignty of the participants. The author examines the features of the integration experience of the Nordic countries in relation to the possibility of using its elements in the modern integration practice of the Eurasian Economic Union.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
A. V. Matveev ◽  
A. E. Krasheninnikov ◽  
E. A. Matveeva ◽  
B. K. Romanov

Good pharmacovigilance practices (GVP) of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) were prepared based on the GVP of the European Medicines Agency that have been in force in the European Union (EU) since 2012. The EAEU GVP have been in force in the Russian Federation and the other EAEU member states since 2016. It is important to identify potential differences between the current regulations in order to harmonise requirements for the pharmacovigilance systems in the EU and EAEU. The aim of the study was to analyse and compare GVP requirements in the EU and EAEU. The analysis helped to identify differences in the structure and contents of GVP sections, the definitions of terms (EU GVP definitions are more detailed and supported by examples, subsections, and references to other documents). Moreover, supplements and annexes to the EU GVP contain figures, templates, examples, algorithms, and tables, which are missing in the EAEU GVP. Expert analysis of these differences as applied to assessment of the pharmacovigilance systems’ effectiveness, and practical activities of marketing authorisation holders, medicine developers, and regulatory authorities, demonstrated that the two GVPs are sufficiently harmonised and have very few differences. However, the number of differences between the documents increases, as changes are made to the EU GVP. A more comprehensive harmonisation of the EAEU GVP with the current version of the EU GVP will make it possible to develop and use uniform pharmacovigilance documents in the EU and EAEU, and will facilitate the introduction of EAEU medicines into the global pharmaceutical market.


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