Prospects for South-east Asia in the third quarter

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in the third quarter. Significance Low consumer confidence has delayed an anticipated recovery in private consumption, while few countries have taken advantage of lower oil prices to boost spending. With global conditions likely to remain difficult in the third quarter, business will seek a stronger lead from domestic policies.

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in the fourth quarter. Significance South-east Asia's growth outlook is weakening as unease over the region's dependence on the slowing Chinese economy and growing debt burden is undermining business and consumer confidence. Politically, the fourth quarter will see two bellwether elections.


Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.


Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in the second quarter. Significance Lower oil prices have given the region a growth lifeline, but weak external demand, especially in Asia and Europe, continues to undermine business confidence. Most countries will experience steady growth through the rest of the year, but much will depend on their ability to nurture domestic spending.


Subject Russia's ties with South-east Asia. Significance Russia is renewing ties with South-east Asia primarily to counter falling oil prices, Western sanctions and European moves to reduce dependence on Russia, especially its gas. Yet there are signs that Russia's new interest in the region is also an attempt to regain some of the influence it once held in South-east Asia. Impacts Moscow's 'no-political-strings' approach appeals to non-democratic regimes, especially in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Medvedev will manage South-east Asia ties, while President Vladimir Putin handles the heavyweights -- China and India. Russia risks alienating China by building South-east Asia's naval capabilities.


Writing from a wide range of historical perspectives, contributors to the anthology shed new light on historical, theoretical and empirical issues pertaining to the documentary film, in order to better comprehend the significant transformations of the form in colonial, late colonial and immediate post-colonial and postcolonial times in South and South-East Asia. In doing so, this anthology addresses an important gap in the global understanding of documentary discourses, practices, uses and styles. Based upon in-depth essays written by international authorities in the field and cutting-edge doctoral projects, this anthology is the first to encompass different periods, national contexts, subject matter and style in order to address important and also relatively little-known issues in colonial documentary film in the South and South-East Asian regions. This anthology is divided into three main thematic sections, each of which crosses national or geographical boundaries. The first section addresses issues of colonialism, late colonialism and independence. The second section looks at the use of the documentary film by missionaries and Christian evangelists, whilst the third explores the relation between documentary film, nationalism and representation.


Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.


Significance It is the only country in South-east Asia with a large-scale nuclear plant, although this was never loaded with fuel. Other countries in the region have tentative plans to develop nuclear power programmes. Impacts The current absence of nuclear power programmes will help avert the diversion of capital from renewable energy development in the region. South-east Asian countries with small, non-power reactors, built for research, will try to maintain these facilities. Across the region, the need for electricity grid investment will increase as more decentralised generation sources are deployed.


Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.


Significance It seeks to accelerate recovery from COVID-19 by capitalising on the rise in internet use and digital trade during the pandemic. However, new restrictive laws on internet use in several countries run counter to these regional digital integration goals. Impacts Beijing will give technical and political support to countries such as Cambodia seeking to replicate the Great Firewall on a smaller scale. Authoritarian regimes will use internet controls to advance their commercial interests. Western donor funding for digital projects could be halted.


Significance Meanwhile, the Myanmar junta and the military-aligned Thai government are under pressure from opponents, and the Philippines is gearing up for elections. With COVID-19 vaccination rates varying greatly, some countries in the region are better placed than others to revive their pandemic-hit economies.


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