Somalia's fast-tracked state creation carries risks

Significance The Central Somalia formation conference took place in Adado and swore in its regional assembly members on June 22. However, June was a fraught month for the federal process. The Islamist militia, Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a (ASWJ), has rejected Galmudug's formation, instead establishing an Islamic Court and a rival state formation process in another regional town. Meanwhile, a clan-related dispute over the leadership of the Jubbaland State assembly led to the suspension of relations between Mogadishu and Kismayo in early June, after the federal parliament passed a vote of no-confidence in the regional assembly. Impacts Infighting within member states -- and between states and Mogadishu -- is decreasing the slim chances of holding direct elections in 2016. Donor reluctance to commit pledged funds, fuelled by corruption concerns, is hampering the government's capacity and legitimacy. Al-Shabaab's Ramadan offensive highlights the constraints of both the African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM) and the Somali National Army.

Subject Outlook for Somalia's political transition. Significance Leaders of the federal government and member states will meet on January 10 in Kismayo to finalise the framework for the August-September 2016 political transition. This will involve state-level electoral colleges selecting parliamentarians based on clan and constituency-based representation, rather than direct elections. Impacts Any transition in 2016 would fulfil a key donor requirement and mark a break with the politics of the 2004-12 period. Insecurity will challenge the transition, as the political turmoil in Burundi threatens further strain on AMISOM coherence and troop levels. Donor backing for AMISOM is set to shift, with the EU reducing its support by 20% from January.


Significance The parliament has emerged as a channel for critics of a presidency characterised by an assertive interpretation of its mandate. Parliament has also served as a platform for criticism of the federal member state formation process -- particularly in the case of Jubbaland. These tensions are becoming critical as the federal government enters the final year of its mandate, during which an indirect election mechanism must be agreed between federal and regional elites. Impacts Pressure from donors and neighbouring states focuses on ensuring a 2016 transition, and trying to limit infighting. Corruption allegations, central to the impeachment motion, have constrained Western aid flows, blunting donor influence. The federal government depends on external military support amid divisions between pro-government militias.


Significance The prime minister withdrew his first cabinet, proposed in early January, after opposition to the inclusion of figures from the outgoing government who were considered too closely aligned with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The government is the country's third under the provisional constitutional framework adopted in August 2012. It faces a daunting list of tasks to achieve before its mandate runs out in August 2016, including establishing a framework for relations between regional member states and the national government, building electoral architecture, finalising the constitution before a referendum, and holding national parliamentary and presidential elections. Impacts With the exception of al-Shabaab, all parties continue to work within the federal framework, despite its problems. Security operations led by African Union (AU) peacekeepers and assisted by Somali forces will continue to pressure al-Shabaab territorially. Clan-based haggling over this cabinet could lead to a burst of legislative activity, as government and clan interests align temporarily.


Significance In recent weeks, al-Shabaab has conducted assassinations in Mogadishu, attacked African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) convoys and an AMISOM base, ambushed US-trained Somali troops just outside the main US military base and launched cross-border raids into Kenya. None of these attacks are out of the ordinary. Indeed, new data show that, over the past year, al-Shabaab has re-emerged as Africa’s deadliest jihadist group. In part, this reflects the much-reduced threat environment it currently faces. Impacts Increasingly deadly ambushes may force AMISOM to rely more on air and sea routes to deliver supplies. Al-Shabaab will try to disrupt efforts to build democratic governance, including attempts to organise direct elections by 2020-21. The still-incapable and under-resourced Somali army may be exposed if AMISOM starts to transfer security responsibilities to it.


Significance Several other member states also face internal challenges as the federal government and donors seek to consolidate the country’s federal architecture and improve security under the administration of President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’. Impacts Former al-Shabaab commander Mukhtar Robow’s surrender may produce minor gains in his home area but not much beyond. The drawdown of African Union peacekeepers will increase pressures on federal and regional security forces to perform. A unilateral Kenyan military exit remains unlikely despite Raila Odinga's campaign rhetoric.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-480
Author(s):  
Angela Martins ◽  
Vicensia Shule

Africa as a continent has been hit by the coronavirus – the COVID-19 pandemic – as have many parts of the world. Many African Union (AU) member states were badly hit by the virus, while others were only mildly impacted. The arts, culture, and heritage sectors have been severely hit by the pandemic. Fortunately, in many countries in Africa, arts, culture, and heritage were placed at the heart of strategic priorities at the national, regional, and continental levels of combating COVID-19.


Significance It has yet to win over sceptical member states in southern and Central and Eastern Europe. However, there has been some progress on immigration with countries approving the revised Blue Card Directive which should open more pathways for legal migration. Impacts A fresh spike in illegal migration could have a defining impact on elections in Germany and France. The Eastern Mediterranean will be the most vulnerable route for illegal migration over the coming years. To reduce demand for foreign workers, some EU countries could try to incentivise residents to have more children.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmytro S. Melnyk ◽  
Oleg A. Parfylo ◽  
Oleksii V. Butenko ◽  
Olena V. Tykhonova ◽  
Volodymyr O. Zarosylo

Purpose The experience of most European Union (EU) Member States has demonstrated effective anti-corruption practices, making the EU one of the leaders in this field, which can be used as an example to learn from in the field of anti-corruption. The purpose of this study is to analyze and identify the main features of anti-corruption legislation and strategies to prevent corruption at the national and supranational levels of the EU. Design/methodology/approach The following methods were used in the work: discourse and content analysis, method of system analysis, method of induction and deduction, historical-legal method, formal-legal method, comparative-legal method and others. Using the historical and legal method, the evolution of the formation of anti-corruption regulation at the supranational level was revealed. The comparative law method helped to compare the practices of the Member States of the EU in the field of anti-corruption regulation. The formal-legal method is used for generalization, classification and systematization of research results, as well as for the correct presentation of these results. Findings The main results, prospects for further research and the value of the material. The paper offers a critical review of key EU legal instruments on corruption, from the first initiatives taken in the mid-1990s to recent years. Originality/value In addition, the article analyzes the relevant anti-corruption legislation in the EU member states that are in the top 10 countries with the lowest level of corruption, namely: Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg.


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