Japan recovery will rely on investment and exports

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Job Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Imputed Rent

Significance Weak consumer spending data had already suggested the decline was coming, and the GDP data bore this out: real household consumption (excluding imputed rent) fell a sharp 3.5%. This cannot be blamed on the vagaries of deflators because even the nominal amounts fell across the board, from durables to services. Impacts Over the next twelve months the job market will slowly tighten as rising labour demand confronts a declining labour force. The CPI will remain below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) target because aggregate demand, especially from households, remains less than robust. The BoJ will increase stimulus measures if third-quarter GDP is not strong and inflation remains weak. By 2016, prices and wages will rise more vigorously due to monetary policy and the tightening labour market.

Household consumption change in the context of labour market changes in Japan during 1984–2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-241
Author(s):  
Janika Bachmann
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Consumption Change ◽  
Market Changes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how labour market changes impact the change in the aggregated household consumption, which is a topic that is under-researched in Japan. Design/methodology/approach The author uses a three-step approach. The first step is a descriptive overview of the trends for cohort, age and year. The second step is to test the variation attributable to age-period-cohort interactions using APC analysis. The third step is to check if identifiable linear trend exists between the consumption changes and the labour market changes. Findings The analysis shows that major labour market changes per se do not contribute to household consumption adjustment. Meanwhile, the labour market conditions at the time of joining the labour force may be more important in shaping consumption during working life period than labour market changes during employment. Research limitations/implications The cohorts are created based on birth years, which is a limitation imposed by the data availability rather than characteristics of the population group. The main reason behind the limited data points is the survey being conducted every five years and 2014 being the most recent year for which the data are available. Originality/value Research about cohort consumption in Japan is limited to the consumption composition changes or to the growing population of unmarried singles. This analysis will examine how labour market changes impact the change in the aggregated household consumption, which is a topic that is under-researched in Japan. In the analysis, the author uses the Python APC model and Python statsmodel OLS regression, providing the notebooks with code and full results in Appendices.

Community of practice: converting IT graduate students into specialists via professional knowledge sharing

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liana Stanca ◽  
Dan-Cristian Dabija ◽  
Elena Păcurar
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Knowledge Transfer ◽  
Learning Styles ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Community Of Practice ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Professional Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Learning Framework

Purpose The paper aims to highlight how an applied learning framework or “community of practice” (CoP) combined with a traditional theoretical course of study enables the identification of teaching-learning processes which facilitate knowledge transfer from practitioners to graduate information technology (IT) students for quicker integration in the labour market. Design/methodology/approach CoPs are identified based on cluster analysis according to Kolb’s Learning Style Inventory (1984), with data obtained through a survey. Empirical research is applied to the CoP developed within a non-formal learning framework, principal new actors being IT specialists linked to graduate IT students and teachers on a traditional university course. Graduate IT students can gain knowledge of the ideal employee and the social and emotional skills needed to integrate with the IT labour market. Findings The K-Means algorithm helps to identify clusters of graduate IT students displaying necessary knowledge acceptance behaviour to convert them into specialists. The results of the cluster analysis show different learning styles of the labour force, providing an overview of candidate selection methods and the knowledge, skills and attitudes expected by users. Research limitations/implications Although the research adds value to the existing literature on learning styles and the knowledge and core skills needed by IT specialists, it was limited to an emerging market. Originality/value The study provides a preliminary overview of graduate IT students’ attitudes from an emerging market to the re-engineering of academic learning contexts to facilitate professional knowledge transfer, converting them into IT practitioners and integrating them in the labour market of an emerging economy.

Which professional skills value more under digital transformation?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Paklina ◽  
Elena Shakina
Keyword(s):  
Text Mining ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Hedonic Pricing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Computing Skills

PurposeThis study seeks to explore the demand side of the labour market influenced by the digital revolution. It aims at identifying the new composition of skills and their value as implicitly manifested by employers when they look for the new labour force. The authors analyse the returns to computing skills based on text mining techniques applied to the job advertisements.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is based on the hedonic pricing model with the Heckman correction to overcome the sample selection bias. The empirical part is based on a large data set that includes more than 9m online vacancies on one of the biggest job boards in Russia from 2006 to 2018.FindingsEmpirical evidence for both negative and positive returns to computing skills and their monetary values is found. Importantly, the authors also have found both complementary and substitutional effects within and between non-domain (basic) and domain (advanced) subgroups of computing skills.Originality/valueApart from the empirical evidence on the value of professional computing skills and their interrelations, this study provides the important methodological contribution on applying the hedonic procedure and text mining to the field of human resource management and labour market research.

The effect of immigration on natives’ task specialisation: the case of Germany

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 939-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Sebastian ◽  
Magdalena Ulceluse
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Language Proficiency ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Institutional Context ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Displacement Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Working ◽  
Task Reallocation ◽  
Manual Tasks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of an increase in the relative supply of immigrants on natives’ task reallocation, with a focus on Germany. Specifically, it investigates whether natives, as a response to increased immigration, re-specialise in communication-intensive occupations, where they arguably have a comparative advantage due to language proficiency. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses regional data from the German Labour Force Survey between 2002 and 2014. To derive data on job tasks requirements, it employs the US Department of Labor’s O*NET database, the results of which are tested through a sensitivity analysis using the European Working Condition Survey and the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies data sets. Findings The paper finds that indeed German workers respond to increasing immigration by shifting their task supply and providing more communication relative to manual tasks. Importantly, the decrease in the supply of communication tasks is stronger and more robust than the increase in the supply of manual tasks, pointing to a potential displacement effect taking place between natives and immigrants, alongside task reallocation. This would suggest that countries with relatively more rigid labour markets are less responsive to immigration shocks. Moreover, it suggests that labour market rigidity can minimise the gains from immigration and exacerbate employment effects. Originality/value The paper not only investigates task reallocation as a result of immigration in a different institutional context and labour market functioning, but the results feed into broader policy and scholarly discussions on the effects of immigration, including questions about how the institutional context affects labour market adjustment to immigration, worker occupational mobility in a more rigid labour markets and the fine balance needed between flexibility and rigidity.

China job market risks go beyond unemployment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Job Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Entrepreneurial Spirit ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Jobs

Subject Labour market conditions in China. Significance China’s official unemployment rate in 2014 was 4.09%, up from 4.05% in 2013. For the three previous years, it had stood still at exactly 4.10%. These implausible data give the illusion of stability during a period of slowing growth and economic uncertainty, and obscure a complex and volatile labour market that now presents a serious challenge to the government. The government is well aware of the pressures on the labour market and has stated its intention to create 10 million new jobs this year. Impacts Fewer young people will enter the workforce, and those who do will have much higher expectations. An older workforce means higher wage demands and the payment of pensions and medical insurance. China will have to find suitable employment for an increasing number of graduates; 7.5 million this year alone. Vocational and on-the-job training will have to revamped and invigorated to meet the demands of both employers and employees. The government's reliance on 'entrepreneurial spirit' to create new jobs could create more social tension.

Full employment will boost US wage growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Jobless Rate

Significance The jobless rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.9%, its lowest level since November 2007. This decline occurred despite a rebound in the participation rate, up 0.5 percentage points (pp) since September and back to its January 2015 level. Labour market behaviour will be a key determinant of the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s pace of monetary policy tightening this year. Impacts Higher cyclical unemployment may become structural through 'hysteresis', as job seekers become discouraged and stop looking for jobs. Structural declines in the participation rate may be one way in which 'secular stagnation' manifests in post-crisis economies. The Fed will monitor closely any overheating risk in the labour market, together with escalating wage and price pressures.

Egypt’s recession may prove deeper than it appears

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Popular Protest

Significance However, labour market figures for this period indicate the effect of the pandemic on the public has been considerably more severe than the GDP data suggest. Impacts Unemployment will be pushed up further by the return of migrant workers from the Gulf, and this trend will also result in lower remittances. Tourism may pick up modestly in 2021 but is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. The recovery in consumer spending will likely be very sluggish. Awareness of the risks will limit the scope for popular protest, but current levels of repression will be hard to sustain indefinitely.

Labour market flexibility and spatial mobility

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 746-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raul Eamets ◽  
Krista Jaakson
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Occupational Mobility ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Spatial Mobility ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Market Flexibility

Purpose – Recent economic recession has highlighted the role of labour market flexibility as a key factor of competitiveness of a country. Despite the fact that labour mobility can essentially be seen as part of labour market flexibility, there is notable research gap concerning spatial mobility and other facets of labour market flexibility. The purpose of this special issue is to fill these gaps. Design/methodology/approach – The papers in the special issue represent various quantitative methods and databases, whereas mainly micro data (workplace, labour force or immigrant surveys, job search portal, etc.) is used. However, the type of labour market flexibility addressed is both micro- and macro-level. Findings – It is demonstrated that labour occupational mobility is determined by the business cycle, numerical flexibility, occupational categories, and sector. Spatial mobility may have counterintuitive effects on individual occupational mobility depending on gender and it is related to various flexibilities in the workplace. It is also suggested that different types of flexibilities on a firm level are interdependent of each other. Originality/value – The special issue adds to the labour market related knowledge by integrating labour market flexibility and mobility. Individually, both phenomena have been studied before, but not much research is devoted to their inter-linkages. The special issue also contributes by examining labour market flexibility and spatial mobility in the context of different countries, economic cycles, and institutional settings.

scholarly journals Job separation rates of immigrants and natives in the UK during the Great Recession

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 1036-1054
Author(s):  
Dafni Papoutsaki
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the probability of job separations of immigrants and natives in the UK before and during the economic crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach A mixed proportional hazard duration model with a semi-parametric piecewise constant baseline hazard is used on a data sample of inflows into employment. Findings It is found that the crisis increased the probability of exits to unemployment for all groups, while immigrants from the new countries of the European Union seemed to have the lowest hazard towards unemployment even after controlling for their demographic and labour market characteristics. More specifically, even when we account for the fact that they tend to cluster in jobs that are most vulnerable to the business cycle, they are still less likely to exit dependent employment than natives. However, this migrant group is adversely affected by the crisis the most. Research limitations/implications Possible implications of out-migration of the lower performers are discussed. Originality/value This paper makes use of the panel element of the UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and uses duration analysis on the individual level to assess the labour market outcomes of natives and immigrants in the UK.

Czech vote may raise chances of new ANO-led government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type

Significance Now that Zeman has successfully retaken the presidency with 152,000 more votes than his pro-Western rival Jiri Drahos after a campaign that was dominated by domestic issues, attention will focus once again on forming a majority government after the largest parliamentary party, ANO 2011, lost a vote of confidence on January 16. Impacts Consumer confidence may strengthen in the short term as the old ANO-CSSD government’s policies take effect, providing an economic boost. Robust household consumption and public- and private-backed investment may also contribute to stronger GDP this year. Although monetary policy is set to tighten, in response to signs of overheating, interest rates will remain at historic lows. The outlook for the economy in the short term is upbeat, with a strong outturn expected for the fourth quarter of 2017. Structural reforms will be required over the medium term to reduce the risk of capacity constraints, especially in industry.

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