The India–EU FTA and Its Potential Impact on India’s Dairy Sector: A Quantitative Analysis

The present study attempts to quantify ex-ante the impact on trade flows, revenue and welfare of the India–EU FTA on India’s dairy sector. In light of the fact that the EU is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products and India’s dairy sector is highly protected, it is important to assess the potential impact that an FTA with EU can have on this sector. Using a partial equilibrium set-up, our simulation results reveal that the estimated increase in India’s imports of dairy products is mainly driven by trade creation rather than trade diversion, implying that the FTA does not promote inefficient dairy trade at the cost of other countries outside the trade bloc. We augment our analysis using the gravity model to estimate the potential increase in dairy sector imports due to trade liberalisation. PPML estimates suggest that a 10% decline in tariff rates leads to a 3.4% increase in the value of imports. While the estimated increase in dairy imports is significant, our analysis indicates that the increased value of imports, expressed as a fraction of India’s domestic output of dairy products, would still be less than 1%. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17

Ecuador economy plans may run into difficulties

Significance The second had been delayed pending the inauguration of President Guillermo Lasso and confirmation of his commitment to the agreement’s objectives. Lasso reached a new deal last month which unlocks two new tranches under Ecuador’s existing USD6.5bn loan programme, while facilitating a more gradual fiscal adjustment than that agreed by his predecessor. Impacts Crisis measures in the banking system will be unwound later in the year to preserve the sector’s health and avoid creating distortions. Lasso will strive to accelerate Ecuador’s incorporation into the Pacific Alliance trade bloc. Lasso’s plan to double oil output through risk-sharing agreements with the private sector will probably prove over-optimistic.

INDIAS TRADE RELATIONS WITH SAARC - SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SAFTA

India played a proactive role in determining the of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) due to its economic strength. This study highlights recent trends in Indias total trade relationship with SAFTA economies in general, and with each trade bloc members particularly during the period, from 2010 to 2019.The paper employs the compound annual growth ratetechnique to find out the growth rate of Indias exports and imports. Also, a trend analysis has been made on Indias exports and imports, total tradebalance of trade with south Asian countries. The trend shows that in general both imports and exports were increasing over time except a negative export and total trade balance with Pakistan and import trade balance with Maldives. Bhutan and Bangladesh were the leading trade partners of India in south asian region. However, depending up on the economic and political conditions of the trading countries exhibit a characteristic trend unique to their own country in trading with India.

EU Country and EFTA Country Export Differences

This research seeks to analyze the export differences facing countries in the EU and EFTA. This is firstly to analyze the effects on international trade of the trade bloc of the European Union (EU), and secondly the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and provide a comparison of these two. This research seeks to analyze exports determinants to answer these two questions. There are two countries selected for this study, the small EFTA country Iceland, and the large EU country UK, before BREXIT. We apply a gravity model in our econometric analysis, with exports dependent on the gross domestic product, population, and geographic distance. We estimate these effects on the exports of both the UK and Iceland in separate equation systems. We conclude that exports from the UK, before BREXIT, are more negatively affected by geographical distance than exports for the EFTA country Iceland, when corrected for gross domestic product and population size.

Co-opetition Relationships and Evolution of the World Dairy Trade Network: Implications for Policy-Maker Psychology

This study conducted a social network analysis of the evolutionary characteristics of the world dairy trade network based on the overall trade pattern. In addition, the evolution of trade blocs and the co-opetition relationships involving dairy products in major countries were analyzed in terms of supply and demand. The results show that continuous and complex changes have taken place in the world’s dairy trade network since 2001. The number of trade entities in dairy products has stabilized since 2012. At present, approximately 94% of countries (regions) are involved in dairy product trade, such that the world dairy trade network exhibits the small-world effect and scale-free property. The world import pattern for dairy products has changed. While export centers have not changed, import centers have shifted from Europe, America, and East Asia to North America, East Asia, and the Middle East. The world dairy trade network consists of the EU trade bloc headed by Germany, the former Soviet Union–Brazil trade bloc, and the Asia–Australia–America trade bloc. The trade blocs have evolved due to geographical positions, historical cultures, and political relations. In a trade bloc, the diversification of import sources is more prominent in demand countries. European and Asian markets have become the main markets of the major exporters. In this study, the evolutionary characteristics of the world dairy trade network and the co-opetition relationships were analyzed to provide scientific support to inform the development of dairy trade policies. The results can provide technical and psychological support to policy-makers in various countries in their dairy trade decision-making.

Franco Spain at the Origins of the European Agricultural Community

Chapter 2 shows that Madrid faced serious risks when integration threatened agriculture. A West-European agricultural trade bloc threatened Spain’s economy and political system. Fortunately for Franco Spain, the governments promoting agricultural integration soon deserted supranational features and moved into trade talks to offer other west European countries the surpluses they had generated after 1947. Spain concluded a purchasing contract for wheat with France. This and the prospects of wheat from the International Wheat Agreement and the United States, allowed Madrid to avoid bread rationing after the spring of 1952. By the end of the Green Pool episode, Spain had been granted de facto OEEC treatment in agricultural trade. Thus, the proposed European Agricultural Community provided the Franco regime with the opportunity to improve food consumption and overcome a critical threat to its survival.

Global Value Chains and Regionally Coordinated Industrial Policy

The well-documented failures of the liberal policy regimes of the period 1980–2007 to generate sustained economic growth and development have led in the past ten years to a renewed interest in industrial policy. The re-emergence of industrial policy occurs in a new world of well-developed GVCs in major industries with integrated regional economies. This chapter assesses the success of industrial policy in this context by considering the case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). After laying out the case for industrial policy in regionalized GVCs, we find that ASEAN, a regional trade bloc, has helped to coordinate regional production integration and promoting industry competitiveness for member states in several strategic industries. We conclude that the future success of ASEAN industrial policy will hinge on continued growth in Chinese demand and the ability of ASEAN countries to build some globally competitive, lead firms in key industries.

Youth Awareness and Expectations about GMOs and Nuclear Power Technologies within the North American Free Trade Bloc: A Retrospective Cross-Country Comparative Analysis

This study reports on the cross-country heterogeneity in youth awareness and expectations about genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and nuclear power technology (NPT) within the North American free trade area (NAFTA). Models are estimated with data on youth respondents from the USA, Canada and Mexico, using seemingly unrelated bivariate weighted ordered probit regression, with maximum simulated likelihood estimation. Our findings show that the diffusion of technology and information within the trade bloc, for the 20 years prior to the 2015 data collection period, did not significantly contribute to cross-country convergence in youth awareness and expectations about GMOs and NPTs. Indeed, with regard to awareness, compared to youth from the USA, those from Canada show 15% (GMOs) and 7.1% (NPT) more awareness, respectively; while youth from Mexico show 34.4% and 19.5% less awareness about GMOs and NPT, respectively. With respect to expectations about future developments of the two technological artifacts, compared to youth from the USA, those from Canada and Mexico are 34.4% and 39.9% more optimistic about GMOs, respectively, while 15% and 49.7% are more optimistic about NPT. Overall, our findings show that the youth population within NAFTA is 2.5% and 6.7% more optimistic about GMOs and NPT for each level of increase in their awareness about the two technologies, respectively. Theoretically, our results seem to reject the hypothesis of NAFTA being a technology convergence country club in the Schumpeterian view, while seemingly supporting the existence of heterogeneous growth regimes within NAFTA.

Analysis of the Procedure for the Recognition and Execution of Foreign Arbitral Awards in MERCOSUR

This research considers the current situation for the settlement of investment disputes in MERCOSUR member states. To achieve greater results, the current international legislation has established principles and a broad range of procedures that must be implemented on the trade bloc member states regarding the recognition and execution of foreign arbitral awards. This study applies a descriptive qualitative method. The findings of this study show that there are still some obstacles for the development of investment arbitration, despite its recognition in the current legislations. In this sense this work recommends harmonizing the legal procedures for the institution of arbitration and implementing a Supranational Arbitration Court inside MERCOSUR to increase and make effective the institution of international commerce in the region.