Mongolia’s success relies heavily on China

Significance However, it does not resolve the state of limbo in which Mongolia’s domestic politics, international relations and economic development has remained for the past several years. Prime Minister U Khurelsukh will consolidate his dominance of the MPP, largely continuing past policies. Impacts Legal uncertainties and corruption inquiries surrounding Oyu Tolgoi and other mining projects will negatively affect foreign investment. There will be Chinese pressure, and serious Mongolian consideration, of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Factional conflicts within the main opposition party may undermine Battulga’s hope for re-election as president next year. Climate change will put increasing pressure on Mongolia’s ecology and economy.

Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance The new administration has eliminated export taxes on mining, as part of its efforts to lure foreign investment to revive a stagnant economy. Mining export taxes were set at 5-10% over the past 14 years, and their removal will cost the government some 220 million dollars annually. Impacts Low global metals prices will hinder short-term efforts to boost mining investment. Environmental concerns will continue to drive hostility to mining projects. Lithium will drive mining growth in the near term.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance President Alberto Fernandez has singled out mining among the sectors that could attract much-needed foreign investment. However, recent emergency measures seeking to boost public revenues and avoid a currency run could further deter investors. Accumulated exploration investments reached nearly 1 billion dollars over the past four years, but actual development of projects has been moving slowly. Impacts Environmental issues will continue to prompt popular pushback against mining projects. Anti-mining sentiment among citizens will clash with provincial governments’ need to boost growth and revenues. Any gold output increases are likely to come from associated gold mineral in large copper projects.


Significance Prime Minister Guido Bellido’s threat to nationalise Camisea has further stirred debate at the heart of government, this time about implementing a campaign pledge to this end, notwithstanding the government’s professed aim to create a secure environment for foreign investment. Bellido’s announcement did not have the backing of the cabinet as a whole. Impacts Bellido’s position will suffer if he is seen to backtrack on a key issue contained in Peru Libre’s manifesto. Polarised disagreements within the cabinet will persist. Castillo’s position will suffer from the lack of clear leadership.


2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Chapnick

In January 2019, a leading Canadian foreign policy blog, OpenCanada.org, declared that “[u]nder the government of Justin Trudeau, Canada has embraced a feminist foreign policy—gradually at first, and with fervor over the past year.” Although critics have debated the policy’s effectiveness, the embrace, if not also the fervor, was indisputable. By 2019, the Trudeau government’s second foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, was proclaiming Canada’s feminist approach to international relations openly and regularly. The international community had also noticed. This article investigates the origins of the new Canadian foreign policy “brand.” It finds that, contrary to popular thinking, the prime minister himself played at most a minor role in the initiation of what became a full-fledged transformation of Canada’s global image.


Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.


Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.


Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Prospects for Japan in 2016. Significance The upper house election due in July will be the focus of domestic politics in the first half of 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced 'three new arrows' of Abenomics, but the economy has flipped back into recession.


Subject The Russian car market. Significance The car industry has undergone enormous changes, with foreign companies at the forefront of the transformation. Foreign involvement has risen over the past decade as policies promoting localisation of production attracted foreign investment. However, Russia's economic slowdown has led to some companies -- most notably General Motors (GM) -- announcing a reduction in their Russian operations. Over the last few months, other major Western brands have also reduced production in Russia. Russia's bleak economic prospects may cause other companies to replicate GM's policies, as a slowdown in consumer spending could cause the market to shrink further. Impacts Some manufacturers' decisions to halt production in Russia will cause some local unemployment. However, volumes of foreign production in Russia's will remain high -- companies that stay may benefit from enhanced market share. Some companies have placed Russia at the centre of their wider corporate strategies and will be reluctant to leave.


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