Instability will prompt new NATO maritime posture

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
European Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Us

Subject NATO's maritime posture. Significance The maritime domain around Europe has become increasingly turbulent, competitive and contested over the past five years. NATO faces strategic maritime challenges from Russia seeking to alter the European security order through military assertiveness, and a collapsing order in the Middle East that has spawned instability, civil war, terrorism and massive refugee flows across the Mediterranean's southern rim. Impacts NATO maritime forces are likely to remain close to home, placing further constraints on the US-led anti-ISG campaign. US naval forces will be increasingly active in Europe, but will remain stretched by Washington's focus on the Pacific. Budget pressures will limit the regeneration of maritime capabilities by most European alliance members.

Rethinking of Turkey’s Geopolitics together with Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 705 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-66
Author(s):  
Arıboğan Deniz Ülke ◽  
Ibrahim Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Past ◽  
Humanitarian Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Transportation Accessibility ◽  
The Eu

In the studies carried out within the scope of geopolitical discipline, the expression "geography is destiny" is frequently used and it is claimed that geography has unchangeable, irreversible qualities and the policies implemented are shaped through this assumption. This assumption ignores the humanitarian interventions over the geography and makes it difficult to understand the results produced by these interventions at both regional and global level. Similarly, the dynamic nature of international relations reveals new actors in the international system in times of bounce and collapse, and the borders that expand or narrow with each transformation can differentiate the geopolitical view with new sovereign countries. In the historical process, transportation accessibility, trade, search for raw materials, security and alliance relations have caused the same geography to be interpreted differently in different periods. This situation also applies to the geography of Turkey had been the homeland of empires. The developments in the Middle East over the past two decades has created a sensitivity in the relations between Turkey and the West, especially the United States. Competing interests with the EU and the US in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, has necessitated a reassessment of Turkey's geography.

As the Druze Go, So Goes the Middle East

2021 ◽  
Vol 120 (830) ◽  
pp. 366-371
Author(s):  
William F. S. Miles
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Citizenship Status ◽  
Small Minority ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Collapse

The Druze, despite being a small minority faith group, have long survived in a challenging region, thanks in part to a doctrine of deference to whatever state they live in. In the past few years, however, the three largest Druze populations—in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria—have each faced some of their most difficult challenges yet, from a downgrading of their citizenship status to economic collapse and civil war. An increasingly active diaspora has emerged as an important advocate for Druze interests worldwide.

Textual analysis for China’s financial markets: a review and discussion

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Huang ◽  
Wenfeng Wu ◽  
Tong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Textual Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survey Paper ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Important Field

Purpose This is a literature survey paper. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the latest developments in textual analysis on China’s financial markets, highlighting its differences from existing works in the US markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors review the literature and carry out an experiment of sentiment analysis based on a small sample of Chinese news articles. Findings Based on the experiment of sentiment analysis, there is limited evidence on the association between sentiment and other contemporaneous or future returns. Originality/value The supply of financial textual information has grown exponentially in the past decades. Technological advancements in recent years make the programming-based analysis an effective tool to digest such information. The authors highlight the use of credible textual information and discuss directions of research in this important field.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

Protest groups signal shift in Middle East politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Grassroots Politics ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Middle East Politics

Subject Civil society protest movements in Iraq and Lebanon. Significance Protest movements in the Middle East have been curtailed severely by retrenched autocratic governments and civil wars since the Arab uprisings in 2011. With their relatively open political systems, Lebanon and Iraq never participated in these protests fully. However, over the past year they have seen a resurgence in grassroots politics that could influence civil society across the region. Impacts Protest movements provide an outlet for popular frustration; their repression increases the risk of longer-term political instability. Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco have the most favourable conditions for a revival of civil society protest movements. Such movements could play a larger role in Yemen, Libya and Syria after conflicts have ended. In the longer run, these movements could benefit business in the region by driving efforts to fight corruption and improve transparency.

International dry bulk freight will stay oversupplied

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Iron Ore ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Bulk Carriers ◽  
Urea Production ◽  
Trade Financing

Significance The market remains oversupplied, with daily rates for Capesize vessels (the largest dry-cargo ships) falling by 97% since 2008, from over 200,000 dollars to around 11,000. This is underpinned by record expansion in the global fleet over the past five years. Impacts In the Pacific, daily rates will rise on the back of Indonesia's exports of bauxite and nickel ore. India's self-sufficiency target in urea production by 2019 will have limited effect on dry bulk vessels, given high inland logistics costs. Dollar strength will limit the attractiveness of US bulk exports, with only potash and petcoke likely to keep market share. Recent sales by Vale of several VLOCs (the largest bulk carriers) to China have iron-ore freight arrangements spanning until 2040. Banks' withdrawal from traditional trade financing will trigger moves to fill the gap, including e-shipping and cloud financing platforms.

‘Jihadi pill’ will spread beyond the Middle East

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Tensions ◽  
Migration Flows

Subject The expansion of Captagon. Significance The seven years of civil war in Syria have seen the production and smuggling of the amphetamine Captagon in that country rise substantially. Concern is growing that migration flows and increasingly easy availability will make the drug -- already popular across the Middle East -- fashionable in Europe and potentially beyond. Impacts The manufacture of Captagon could help perpetuate Syria’s war, supporting insurgent operations and corrupting the state. The shift of production from Lebanon to Syria will encourage larger-scale operations, boosting global supply. The spread of Captagon use in areas of heavy migration in Europe may exacerbate ethnic tensions.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

'Deepfakes' could irreparably damage public trust

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
National Security ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Department Of Homeland Security ◽  
Digital Videos ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Senate

Subject Deepfake technology. Significance The US Senate on October 24 passed an act that requires the Department of Homeland Security to publish a yearly report on how ‘deepfake’ technology may be used to harm national security. Deepfakes are believable digital videos, audios or photos created using artificial intelligence (AI) to portray a person saying or doing something that the person never said or did, or portraying an event as real that never took place. The level of sophistication of this technology has leapfrogged over the past two years, raising a wide spectrum of concerns. Impacts A market for anti-deepfake verification technologies will emerge. Lawmakers will need to define the lines between art/entertainment and malicious deepfakes. Upcoming elections will be impacted by the existence of this technology.

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