‘Jihadi pill’ will spread beyond the Middle East

Subject The expansion of Captagon. Significance The seven years of civil war in Syria have seen the production and smuggling of the amphetamine Captagon in that country rise substantially. Concern is growing that migration flows and increasingly easy availability will make the drug -- already popular across the Middle East -- fashionable in Europe and potentially beyond. Impacts The manufacture of Captagon could help perpetuate Syria’s war, supporting insurgent operations and corrupting the state. The shift of production from Lebanon to Syria will encourage larger-scale operations, boosting global supply. The spread of Captagon use in areas of heavy migration in Europe may exacerbate ethnic tensions.

Significance As Angola struggles to cope with its deepest financial crisis since the end of the civil war in 2002, Sonangol profits have fallen dramatically from 2.4 billion dollars in 2009 to 276 million dollars in 2015. The company's new management team, led by Isabel dos Santos, daughter of long-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is overseeing a necessary shake-up of the traditionally opaque parastatal. Impacts A probe by US regulators into a 350-million-dollar payment made by BP and Cobalt to Sonangol could implicate ruling party officials. Isabel dos Santos will face renewed pressure to sell shares or controlling interests in corporate entities linked to the state. New investment decisions could largely depend on ongoing negotiations with international oil companies (IOCs) over tax terms.


Significance This is part of UN-facilitated talks to agree on a national unity government that would end the political power struggle driving Libya's civil war. Should a Government of National Accord be formed in Tripoli, its security would be uncertain as Libya lacks a unified security force that would be loyal to the state alone. This has raised questions in the European Union of whether a foreign stabilisation force may be necessary. Although appetite in European capitals for an intervention appears to be generally low, such a scenario cannot be ruled out altogether. Impacts Despite the UN Envoy's optimism, he must still win over the GNC before a consensus government is formed. A united administration would prefer to avoid a foreign force guarding it, even at the urging of key international actors. In the unlikely event that European troops are involved in such a force, there may be a risk of blowback attacks in Europe.


Asian Survey ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayadeva Uyangoda

The two key events of 2010 in Sri Lanka were the respective presidential and parliamentary elections, which enabled President Mahinda Rajapaksha's government to consolidate power in both the executive and legislative branches of the state in the post-civil war era. Regime priority has been toward political consolidation, rather than ethnic reconciliation and a political solution to potential ethnic tensions in the country.


Significance Security conditions in Libya have worsened drastically as Haftar continues efforts to capture Tripoli from the Government of National Accord (GNA). In light of intensified fighting between Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and the GNA’s forces, key international actors are becoming more involved. Impacts In the short-term, renewed fighting in Tripoli may spook foreign investors who will fear another civil war. Rogue militias may take advantage of the ongoing chaos to attack oilfields, potentially disrupting output. Migration flows to Europe may spike if fighting intensifies and displaces more people.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 441-456
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmad Naheem

Purpose The State of Kuwait operates a US$110bn economy and serves as an integral part of the global energy trade, holding over 9% of the world’s oil reserves. In addition, Kuwait is making attempts to open its economy, working towards domestic diversification. This paper aims to understand Kuwait’s internal financial protection mechanisms and their compliance to international standards. It is imperative to understand Kuwait’s legal and regulatory system that combats money laundering and terrorist financing concerns, which further extends to the region’s security discourse. This paper focuses on the State of Kuwait’s internal efforts to propel anti-money laundering/combating terrorist financing (AML/CTF) measures, and further evaluate these measures with respect to international evaluations. Design/methodology/approach Anti-money laundering and combatting terrorist financing mechanisms require a layered analysis to understand the legislative and bureaucratic organization of enforcement. Further, these measures, taken within the domestic framework, must be compared to international standards, and thus taken into account by observers. This paper studies Kuwait AML/CTF mechanisms by studying the country’s legislation, regulation and implementation. The country’s legislation will offer insight into the basic foundation of the country’s stance against money laundering and terrorist financing. Kuwait’s regulation against money laundering/terrorist financing (ML/TF) will represent the enforcement mechanisms and risk-assessment tools mandated by the independent regulatory authorities. Finally, the country’s enforcement levels will provide a deeper understanding of the country’s systemic approach to successfully combatting ML and TF activities. In addition, this paper also studies international evaluations that present an independent and factual view regarding Kuwait’s AML/CTF structure and its implementation. Findings Following a thorough examination of primary and secondary literature, this paper finds the State of Kuwait to have taken significant steps in implementing recommended legislative and regulatory mechanisms. The paper found significant strategic deficiencies within internal mechanisms pre-2014, which have been largely resolved in the state’s ex post approach to the Financial Action Task Force’s recommendations. There is also evidence of an improving enforcement mechanism in the state’s recent efforts in reducing exposure to ML and TF risks. However, the paper finds certain “strategic deficiencies” within the country’s internal reporting and external publishing administration. Practical implications The State of Kuwait is an important member in the route to regional stability and security in the Middle-East and Arabian Gulf region. Kuwait’s northern border abuts with Iraq, and connects the country with the rest of the Middle-East. The upward regional instability could create internal security risks for Kuwait. In addition, the State of Kuwait has taken the onus, in addition to the Sultanate of Oman, to mediate the diplomatic lapse between members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The aforementioned positions ascertain a need to examine, and further recommend measures that promote a strong regional financial system. Originality/value This paper finds the government of Kuwait to have taken major steps to create a framework that is parallel to international standards. However, there have been significant delays in activating and implementing several regulatory procedures. The delay of certain procedures has since been rectified by the state. This paper presents a comprehensive qualitative analysis of the country’s legislative, regulatory and enforcement structures and further evaluates the internal performance.


2018 ◽  
pp. 51-67
Author(s):  
Elaine Lynn-Ee Ho

This chapter examines how fraternity and alterity operate in contradictory ways under conditions of contemporaneous migration. While fraternity connotes membership in a national community, alterity refers to the state of being different or the process of “Othering.” The chapter focuses on Singapore as a hub, where concurrent immigration and emigration flows are creating new postcolonial nation-building challenges. Contemporary immigration from China is juxtaposed against past migration from the same ancestral land, generating both co-ethnic and inter-ethnic tensions in a multicultural society. With growing numbers of Singaporeans now moving abroad, Singapore has also become a country that seeks to assert an extraterritorial reach over its emigrants. The multidirectional migration flows evinced in Singapore exemplify how states and national societies invoke temporal framings to prioritize natal ties that are based on selected versions of territorial belonging, memory, and culture.


Significance The Palestinian Authority, recognised by the UN as the State of Palestine ('Palestine'), joined the Rome Statute of the ICC on December 31 by submitting to the UN secretary-general its instrument of accession. The accession will come into force on April 1. In addition, Palestine has lodged a declaration accepting the court's jurisdiction retroactively since June 13, 2014 with respect to crimes committed in the occupied Palestinian territory. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda may now conduct investigations into, and if appropriate prosecute individuals for, crimes allegedly committed on Palestine's territory or by Palestinian nationals. Impacts The move will complicate Israeli settlement policy and attempts to protect nationals from prosecution. The court has the authority to investigate crimes allegedly committed by all parties, including Palestinians and Israelis. Political sensitivity may further encumber the process. Facing early elections, Netanyahu will be unwilling to make any conciliatory moves towards the Palestinians.


Subject NATO's maritime posture. Significance The maritime domain around Europe has become increasingly turbulent, competitive and contested over the past five years. NATO faces strategic maritime challenges from Russia seeking to alter the European security order through military assertiveness, and a collapsing order in the Middle East that has spawned instability, civil war, terrorism and massive refugee flows across the Mediterranean's southern rim. Impacts NATO maritime forces are likely to remain close to home, placing further constraints on the US-led anti-ISG campaign. US naval forces will be increasingly active in Europe, but will remain stretched by Washington's focus on the Pacific. Budget pressures will limit the regeneration of maritime capabilities by most European alliance members.


Significance Syria’s civil war is fought not just with bombs and bullets, but with salaries and services. The government has been able to win this aspect of the war by denying services to targeted opposition-held areas, and depopulating districts by constraining residents’ access to basic necessities such as food, water, fuel and electricity. Impacts The Syrian state will be deeply fragmented for the foreseeable future. Rival local fiefdoms will complicate efforts to direct international aid funds for reconstruction. Islamic extremist groups will find ‘havens’ to wage a long-lasting insurgency against the state, despite reduced access to funds.


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