Fidesz’s grip on Hungary will weaken in 2022

Significance After years of being on the losing end of an electoral system crafted by ruling Fidesz to favour large, unitary blocs, the opposition is marching towards unity. Although Fidesz’s path to victory in 2022 is still wider than that of the opposition, whoever wins, the era of stability that began in 2010 will end next year. Impacts A sharp fall in political stability and predictability will put strong downward pressure on the forint and raise borrowing costs from 2022. Orban’s weakening would spell the end of Central Europe’s Eurosceptic pole, and reduce opposition to Franco-German EU integration efforts. The United States and Western Europe will ramp up criticism of Orban and indirect support for the opposition.

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-59
Author(s):  
Jacques Lemmink

Abstract ‘Proved effective on trial, we can speak of an achieved ideal’ Abraham Kuyper and the mechanical voting machine, c. 1895-1905 During the latest presidential elections in the United States, unfounded conspiracy theories sprung up concerning alleged ballot box fraud by compromised voting machines. Although different voting machines had been used in the Netherlands since 1966, concerns over their reliability ended this in 2007. This article investigates the forgotten but ultimately failed attempt to introduce mechanical voting machines a century earlier. It focuses on the role played by prominent politician Abraham Kuyper, who personally visited the Standard Voting Machine Company in Rochester in 1898. The article illustrates how Kuyper’s transatlantic political and religious networks facilitated the voting machine’s transfer, rather than scientific connections. Paradoxically, the introduction of proportional representation in 1917 marked the end of tentative attempts to develop a Dutch version of the American mechanical voting machine. The implementation in the voting process turned out be too expensive, too early, and too complicated for the Dutch electoral system at the dawn of the twentieth century.


Subject The outlook for political stability. Significance Arrests in an alleged coup plot, deepening tensions with the United States and street skirmishes marked the first anniversary of the February 12, 2014 riots. Nevertheless, there appears to be no recurrence of last year's upheavals, and the government has laid the ground for modest economic adjustments. The announcement of pending changes to the domestic fuel subsidy did not galvanise popular protest while the introduction of a free-floating exchange rate was well received by markets and bondholders. Impacts The muted response to renewed calls for regime change underscores negligible popular enthusiasm for violent exit solutions. US statements critical of the Maduro government further isolate Washington from regional sentiment. Although angered by recent US pronouncements, the Maduro government will persist with informal diplomatic overtures.


Subject The threat to North Korea's political stability were supreme leader Kim Jong-un to die. Significance Seoul and Beijing both insist all is normal in North Korea, contrary to unattributed news reports -- which the United States and others are monitoring -- that supreme leader Kim Jong-un is gravely ill after heart surgery. Last seen on April 11, Kim missed a key anniversary on April 15. Impacts March was a record month for missile tests, but all were small; intercontinental ballistic missile or nuclear tests are too risky for now. A COVID-19 epidemic would dent lingering hopes of life improving under Kim. New prestige projects with tight deadlines will impose additional hardship. Despite sharply reduced bilateral trade, China will use back channels to ward off risk of regime collapse.


Subject The economic outlook for China. Significance Downward pressure on economic growth is growing amid trade tension with the United States and the effects of a campaign to deleverage the domestic economy. The central government has made a clear shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policy to provide liquidity and stimulate business activity, implying that authorities' concerns about slowing growth are serious. Impacts Interest rate cuts and further credit injections are likely before year-end if trade tensions with the United States persist. Investments in infrastructure will facilitate technological development such as 5G adoption, with a wider impact on other industries. Infrastructure investment is back in favour in Beijing, so the Belt and Road Initiative could receive another boost abroad.


1973 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-501
Author(s):  
John E. Dougherty

During the nineteenth century Latin America produced a significant number of thinkers and philosophers who recognized that their countries were failing to keep pace with Western Europe and the United States in material progress, social equality and political stability. Some of these men were primarily abstract thinkers, but many were politically active and exercised considerable influence through their writing. Juan Bautista Alberdi, an Argentine, was a member of the latter group whose ideas are still discussed frequently today.


Significance The current Council will sit until then. The administration justified its decision on the basis of a spike in coronavirus cases, but many believe it is an effort to hamper the opposition, which for the first time stood a real chance of winning a majority despite an electoral system skewed against it. Impacts Despite losing confidence in Hong Kong, other countries will probably not alter their treatment of it as much as the United States has. Referring to decision to postpone the election to Beijing weakens the legal wall between Hong Kong and mainland China. The Hong Kong government will continue to exert legal pressure on prominent activists, including application of the National Security Law.


1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-217
Author(s):  
Mir Annice Mahmood

Foreign aid has been the subject of much examination and research ever since it entered the economic armamentarium approximately 45 years ago. This was the time when the Second World War had successfully ended for the Allies in the defeat of Germany and Japan. However, a new enemy, the Soviet Union, had materialized at the end of the conflict. To counter the threat from the East, the United States undertook the implementation of the Marshal Plan, which was extremely successful in rebuilding and revitalizing a shattered Western Europe. Aid had made its impact. The book under review is by three well-known economists and is the outcome of a study sponsored by the Department of State and the United States Agency for International Development. The major objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of assistance, i.e., aid, on economic development. This evaluation however, was to be based on the existing literature on the subject. The book has five major parts: Part One deals with development thought and development assistance; Part Two looks at the relationship between donors and recipients; Part Three evaluates the use of aid by sector; Part Four presents country case-studies; and Part Five synthesizes the lessons from development assistance. Part One of the book is very informative in that it summarises very concisely the theoretical underpinnings of the aid process. In the beginning, aid was thought to be the answer to underdevelopment which could be achieved by a transfer of capital from the rich to the poor. This approach, however, did not succeed as it was simplistic. Capital transfers were not sufficient in themselves to bring about development, as research in this area came to reveal. The development process is a complicated one, with inputs from all sectors of the economy. Thus, it came to be recognized that factors such as low literacy rates, poor health facilities, and lack of social infrastructure are also responsible for economic backwardness. Part One of the book, therefore, sums up appropriately the various trends in development thought. This is important because the book deals primarily with the issue of the effectiveness of aid as a catalyst to further economic development.


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