Uganda leader's win belies long-term vulnerabilities

Significance The polls were marked by repeated arrests of opposition candidates and clashes in the capital, Kampala, in which two people died. Impacts The government's 2.5-billion-dollar deal to develop oil infrastructure with Russia's RT Global Resources will hasten oil sector development. Dips in global tea and coffee prices will worsen government revenue shortfalls, increasing Uganda's reliance on donor support. Ceasing to help mediate in the Burundi crisis may diminish Museveni's reputation as a regional 'elder statesman'. The state 'New Vision' newspaper's claims that the FDC is foreign-backed aims to warn Western critics against applying 'excessive' pressure.

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


Significance The Colombian economy is growing at its slowest pace since 2009. However, this is in line with -- or better than -- most other countries in the region, and is not a cause for alarm. The slowdown is the result of a combination of many factors, chief among them diminished oil sector export revenues. Impacts The current downturn will not significantly affect the long-term positive outlook for the economy. To the extent that lower oil sector revenues are partially counterbalanced by diversification, this will increase the economy's resilience. The central bank's ability to contain inflationary pressure may be tested, but is likely to succeed as market conditions improve.


Subject The outlook for solar power in Mexico. Significance Mexico's second-largest solar park -- Central Los Santos Solar I -- began operations on April 18. Its inauguration followed the first long-term power auction to supply the state-owned utility Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) on March 28, and is part of a modest expansion of solar power infrastructure in the north of the country. Impacts The government plans to hold an electricity tender every year, with the terms released in April. The outcome of the second long-term power auction will be made public on September 30. According to Under-Secretary of Clean Energy Efrain Villanueva Arcos, the government may increase further its clean energy goals for 2021.


Significance The announcement is the latest in a string of reforming measures undertaken by Lourenco since assuming power in September; last month he dismissed Isabel dos Santos, daughter of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, as the CEO of state-owned oil company Sonangol. Lourenco's overhaul of Sonangol’s leadership indicates a willingness to pursue seriously much-needed reforms in the oil sector, in addition to broader efforts to diversify the economy. Impacts Isabel’s departure from Sonangol could see a resumption of delayed licensing and project approvals. New editors at the state-run Jornal de Angola and TPA1 could prompt a partial increase in media freedom and a more critical press. The recent implementation of visa-free travel between South Africa and Angola should promote greater regional integration.


Subject The international expansion plans of China Tobacco. Significance China is home to more smokers than any other country and has the world’s most liberal regulatory framework to support the state-owned tobacco monopoly, which contributes some 6% of government revenue. However, decreased sales in its home market have forced China Tobacco to look overseas. Impacts Smoking rates will decline in China, but not in line with international norms. China will keep its own tobacco market closed to international companies unless they license their products to the state-owned monopoly. China Tobacco will look for joint venture and partnership opportunities to expand its presence overseas.


Significance The NDP won 42% of the popular vote and 53 of the provincial assembly's 87 seats while the PC was reduced to eleven seats and third-party status. This surprising result will have important implications for Alberta's oil sector. It has also shattered preconceptions about what was previously considered Canada's most conservative province and may have significant implications for the federal election due in October. Impacts Keystone XL will face greater challenges as shale oil in the United States consolidates. Greater solar adoption poses a greater long-term threat to the Alberta gas sector. LNG exports will remain strong for geopolitical reasons, with Central-Eastern Europe seeking to diversify from Russian sources. However, LNG will face stiff opposition from First Nations groups in British Columbia.


Significance The charges relate to recent violent clashes between Ugandan security services and Mumbere’s bodyguards in and around the Kingdom of Rwenzururu’s headquarters in the town of Kasese. The violence is the culmination of long-term antagonisms between the Ugandan state and Rwenzururu, exacerbated in recent years over resources and patronage. Impacts Heightened ethnic tensions will worry investors in the country's nascent oil sector. Museveni will likely increase militarisation in the Kasese region. Fear of insecurity may temporarily damage tourism to western Uganda.


Significance The proximate reason is the Supreme Court’s decision that the Cerar government’s referendum campaign backing a second railway line between the state-owned port of Koper and the transport hub of Divaca breached Slovenia’s constitution by spending public funds. More broadly, Cerar is seeking to strengthen his party’s weak position ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections, although it is probably too late to regain much ground. Impacts An infrastructure project of strategic importance to Slovenia’s long-term economic development is now at risk of rejection by voters. That would complicate relations with Hungary, which backs a new line to Koper, its nearest maritime outlet. Cerar’s resignation has temporarily halted strikes by teachers exploiting government weakness ahead of elections to press for higher pay.


Subject Renewed Mapuche conflicts. Significance The death of a young Mapuche man, during a police operation in southern Chile’s Araucania Region on November 14, has once again highlighted the longstanding problem of the state’s troubled relations with the country’s largest indigenous group and the persistent violence in parts of what was their traditional homeland. It is also a major setback for centre-right President Sebastian Pinera who, on taking office in March, made “peace in the Araucania Region” one of his five key promises. Impacts A whole generation of Mapuche young people is growing up distrusting the state. The conflict calls for long-term measures that are unlikely to produce significant results within the life of a single government. The police’s lack of credibility in the region will facilitate criminal activities such as the sale of stolen wood.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 874-887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Bradly ◽  
Ganesh Nathan

Purpose This paper aims to introduce the concept of institutional CSR and explains its antecedents, key characteristics and the potential implications arising from private firms providing public goods and services in developing economies. Design/methodology/approach The paper conceptualises institutional CSR using key insights from institutional theory along with legitimacy theory. It integrates the antecedents of CSR at the state and society levels and shows how firms may respond to these antecedents within an integrated institutional CSR framework. Findings The paper derives six distinct characteristics of institutional CSR and presents a conceptual model to inform how institutional CSR occurs in practice. Practical implications This paper brings to the attention the need for private firms that undertake institutional CSR activities to engage more closely with the state to ensure better societal outcomes. Social implications The paper identifies the importance of resource coordination between the state and the firm for the efficient and effective provision of public goods and services. Without such coordination, moral hazard, resource imbalances and long-term viability concerns pose a risk for institutional CSR activities. It furthermore highlights important implications for societal governance. Originality/value The paper makes an important contribution to the literature on CSR practices within developing economies by conceptualising institutional CSR in providing public goods and services.


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