South-east Asian central banks will power integration

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Leadership Transition ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Power ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Subject Central banks in South-east Asia. Significance Muhammad Ibrahim succeeded Zeti Akhtar Aziz as Malaysia's central bank governor on May 1; he was deputy governor from 2010. The government has thus undercut concerns that its choice would be politically motivated at a time of weakening economic growth and 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund-related problems. This leadership transition raises broader questions of institutional capacity among central banks in the other ASEAN core economies as the region integrates financially. Impacts Muhammad Ibrahim's appointment will likely further strengthen the Malaysian central bank's independence. In Indonesia, political pressure by the administration and parliament on Bank Indonesia will gradually erode its independence. Military pressure on the Bank of Thailand is likely to grow.

ASEAN-UK post-Brexit ties are likely to grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Leadership Transition ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance This follows the June 23 'Brexit' referendum, in which 52% of those voting called for the government to organise the United Kingdom's exit from the EU. The vote and subsequent leadership transition pose a foreign policy watershed. Impacts South-east Asian states will seek trade deals with the post-Brexit United Kingdom. The diplomatic importance of UK defence and intelligence aid to South-east Asia will grow. France may become more important for the EU to project its influence in South-east Asia.

Malaysia's Najib will be stronger in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Refugee crisis could hit Myanmar economy soon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Local Media ◽  
Difficult Position ◽  
The Government

Significance However, the Council's caution that “additional measures” could be taken if Myanmar's government is deemed not to be tackling the crisis sufficiently was taken by local media to mean a threat of sanctions. The government is in a difficult position: tackling the crisis means navigating competing political interests, implying an impasse that is likely to have negative economic effects. Impacts Development donors will hesitate to work on projects with Myanmar’s government. Some businesses will re-evaluate their Myanmar market engagement and investment strategies. The refugee crisis will test the government’s weak institutional capacity.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

South-east Asia to embrace cryptocurrencies cautiously

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
White Paper ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Depth Information ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Financial Instrument ◽  
Content Type

Subject South-east Asia's stance on cryptocurrencies. Significance After Facebook issued a white paper on June 18 on its plans to launch Libra, its new cryptocurrency payment platform, the central banks of Singapore and the Philippines called for more in-depth information. Impacts South-east Asia's response to the rise of cryptocurrencies and other virtual financial instruments will remain uneven. Criminal financing via cryptocurrencies is a major concern for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Social media misuse could rise if Facebook's financial instrument draws in more users.

Indonesia’s e-commerce growth faces multiple obstacles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Multiple Constraints ◽  
Level Playing Field ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
The Government ◽  
Multiple Obstacles ◽  
Future Growth

Subject E-commerce outlook. Significance Indonesia’s e-commerce sector is booming. The government is adopting business-friendly regulations, but the sector’s future growth still faces multiple constraints. Impacts Jokowi’s recent re-election as president promises continuity to investors and policy inertia in areas such as personal data legislation. The lack of personal data protections makes Indonesia a laggard in South-east Asia. Bricks-and-mortar businesses, facing unequal tax burdens, will pressure the government for a level playing field.

Morocco can get through COVID-19 and drought shocks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Job Creation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Private Funding ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Agricultural Yields

Significance This follows an earlier downgrade from Fitch. Morocco’s principal exports -- automotive, phosphates and tourism in particular -- are vulnerable to global market volatility. Besides the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country has also experienced a drought that hit agricultural yields and caused a rise in unemployment. Impacts The government will prioritise investments in sectors that will boost job creation to contain the risk of social unrest. Morocco’s automotive sector is expected to see a contraction in sales of 10-20% in its main European market over the next three years. The government will struggle to attract private funding for its new strategic investment fund as investment flows plummet globally. Phosphates will be central to Morocco’s strategy of developing both export markets and fertiliser processing facilities in Africa.

Policy will cut the risk of booming house prices

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Mortgage Backed Securities ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance The government in New Zealand, where the market is particularly buoyant, was the first to react in February. It now requires the Reserve Bank to consider house prices when setting monetary policy. Other governments and central banks have shown little sign of following suit. Impacts Calls are rising for the US Federal Reserve to taper its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, but it will remain cautious. Rising financial stability risks and house price booms increase the risk of insolvency for borrowers and non-performing-loans for banks. Higher house prices add indirectly to consumer price inflation if they push up rents, but this link takes time to materialise.

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