Tax cuts will invigorate sluggish Danish economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance Uncertainty following the Brexit vote has led to a downgrading of Danish economic forecasts. Growth has been sluggish since the financial crisis and in terms of productivity Denmark is falling behind its neighbours. The government has proposed tax cuts to boost employment and growth. Impacts Greater economic and financial integration of euro-area countries could lead to Denmark losing influence in the EU. Stricter immigration rules could exacerbate the skills shortage in the medium-to-long term, dampening economic growth. Smooth Brexit negotiations could lead the Eurosceptic right to demand a referendum on Danish EU membership.

Poland-EU constitutional crisis will not end soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
The Government ◽  
Polish Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject European Commission concerns about the rule of law in Poland. Significance The Commission has sent a formal Opinion to the Polish government, activating the first stage in the EU's 'Rule of Law Framework'. It expresses concerns about respect for the rule of law in Poland (a fundamental founding value of the EU), and in particular about the Polish government's handling of the crisis over the Constitutional Tribunal (TK, for Trybunał Konstytucyjny) Impacts Poland's EU position is likely to suffer as a result of the dispute, making it more difficult for it to achieve other political goals. Polish politics will remain unsettled and polarised, with the opposition using the Commission's Opinion to challenge the government. Legal uncertainty may translate into lower investment by individuals and enterprises dampening economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

Portuguese coalition parties may clash over austerity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
The Government

Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.

Dutch election could be two-party race

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15. Impacts If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely. The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV. The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.

scholarly journals The European Geopolitical Space and the Long Path to Brexit (The Government and Opposition/Leonard Schapiro Lecture 2020)

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Helen Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Fault Lines ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Although Brexit had its short-term roots in economic and constitutional legitimation issues, it cannot be explained without considering the European geopolitical space, the EU's contrasting political formations in the security and economic spheres, and the fault lines these produce. Seen from a long-term geopolitical perspective, there have been recurrent problems in Britain's efforts to deal with the EU and its predecessors, and persistent patterns of crisis. The geopolitical environment, especially around NATO and energy security in the Middle East, first rendered non-membership of the EEC a problem, then made entry impossible for a decade, helped make EU membership politically very difficult for British governments to sustain, and then constrained the May governments’ Article 50 negotiations. These problems have a singularly British shape, but they cannot be separated from more general fault lines in the European geopolitical space.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youssef Alami ◽  
Issam El Idrissi ◽  
Ahmed Bousselhami ◽  
Radouane Raouf ◽  
Hassane Boujettou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

PurposeThe present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.FindingsPositive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.Originality/valueThis is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.

Mexico stabilisation package should steady peso

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government

Significance The peso has fallen by 10.5% against the dollar since the start of this year, and the surprise move saw the currency react favourably as the announcement broke the dynamics of the depreciation trend. However, the long-term effectiveness of the measures will rely on numerous factors, some of which are beyond the control of the government or Banxico. Impacts The federal government's debt is unlikely to be downgraded by the main rating agencies, but Pemex's could be. Monetary and fiscal tightening will slow economic growth, but Mexico's economy should still expand by at least 2% in 2016. Significant cuts in investment projects by Pemex will see its oil production decline over the coming years.

Centre-right government takes power in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Social Democracy ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance The February 29 parliamentary elections resulted in the defeat of ruling left-nationalist Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), which has led Slovakia’s government for 12 (3 4-year terms) of the 16 years that Slovakia has been a member of the EU. The incoming four-party centre-right government of Igor Matovic, while generally conservative on social issues, will be reformist and pro-EU on economic and foreign policy. Impacts While populist, the new Slovak government will diverge from its Central European neighbours in not promoting ‘illiberalism’. There should be continuity in Slovakia’s foreign policy, with a professional diplomat as foreign minister. The government supports EU membership, despite some parties demonstrating soft Euroscepticism.

scholarly journals Does Financial Integration Enhance Economic Growth in China?

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Duc Hong Vo ◽  
Anh The Vo ◽  
Chi Minh Ho
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Link ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

China is a fascinating country in Asia, the second-largest economy in the world, with incredible economic growth and development in the last two decades. In addition, China has dramatically enjoyed a disciplined and successful financial integration with the region and the world in the same period. As such, it is interesting to examine a potential link between economic growth and financial integration in this most populous country. This paper was conducted to identify whether financial integration fosters Chinese economic growth. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model is selected, utilizing the most updated data on a globalization (or integration) index. Two distinct aspects of financial integration, the de facto (proxied for economic activities) and the de jure (proxied for the Government policies leading to integration), are considered in this paper. We apply an econometric technique, using yearly aggregated data, to examine a long-term co-integration and a causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth in China. Findings from this paper indicate a long-term co-integration between financial integration de facto and economic growth in China. The bidirectional causality between financial integration and economic growth in China is also confirmed using the Granger causality test.

Kazakh government will try to moderate oil reliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Declining Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Export Revenue ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kazakh economic update. Significance Kazakhstan's economic growth continued in the first half of 2019, driven primarily by stable oil exports and a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The economy ministry is forecasting GDP growth of 3.8% this year, compared with 4.1% in 2018. The national oil fund provides a safety cushion against short-term falls in export revenue, but the government wants to restrict its use of this resource. Impacts Anticipated increases in real disposable incomes this year will help reduce poverty levels. Declining demand from the EU, China or Russia could dampen economic growth. This year's bond issuances are intended to establish a benchmark sovereign yield curve that will help price future corporate issuances. The threat of US secondary sanctions increases the risks to Kazakh entities dealing with Russian investors.

Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinh Doan Van
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Purpose At present, countries are concerned about inflation and the impact of inflation on each country’s economic growth. This inflation has been said by economists that inflation is a phenomenon of currency and currency, which has caused inflation in some countries by their monetary policy. According to the economic theory of Karl Marx, Irving Fisher, Friedman, inflation is caused by a continuous increase in the money supply. Design/methodology/approach The economic theories of Fisher, Friedman and an econometric model are applied to analyse the relationship between money supply and inflation. Besides, Vietnam’s and China’s research data are also collected in the period of 2012-2016. Findings It is found out that the continuous increase in the money supply causes inflation in the long-term, but the continuous increase in the money supply growth does not cause inflation in a short time, this was analyzed based on the theory of monetary quantity. Moreover, Chia’s and Vietnam’s correlations of the money supply growth and inflation are 99.1 per cent. These correlations are very close. Originality/value Research results show that money supply and inflation are closely related, and the money supply directly affects economic growth. Therefore, the government should have the relevant monetary policy to grow the economy and proposals to make monetary policy, control inflation levels and stimulate economic growth.

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