Mining will stoke tensions in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Slow Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sectoral Development ◽  
The Eu

Significance Seven years after the government of President Rafael Correa signalled its intention to make mining one of the key pillars of its economic and political programme, the sector remains underdeveloped. Nonetheless, activity in the sector has increased, suggesting that changes the government has introduced in the last few years have started to take effect. Impacts The balance of political power in the next government is likely to remain broadly favourable for mining companies. Nevertheless, local politics and opposition will slow development and could even prevent it. The government will focus on 'responsible mining' in an effort to create broad-based political support for sectoral development. The government's links with financial institutions and its free trade deal with the EU will reassure mining firms of their investments.

External factors will prod Russia into climate action

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Emissions Trading ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.

Romania heads for clash with EU over legal sovereignty

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance After accentuated rule-of-law erosion during 2017-19, the new government encouraged hopes that such violations would become a thing of the past. However, last month, the government sacked the ombudsman, while the Constitutional Court declared void a judgement of the EU Court of Justice (CJEU) defending judicial independence. Impacts Recent developments erode hopes that last month’s positive CVM report will lead to Romania’s Schengen zone accession later this year. Failure to replace the ombudsman will not affect the coalition parties electorally, given the politicisation of rule-of-law issues. Subnational courts will be left confused whether to apply the Constitutional Court or the CJEU ruling to legal disciplinary cases.

Non-compliance behavior of de-risking force the EU to enhance anti-money laundering regulation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalle Johannes Rose
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Law And Economics ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Functional Methods ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Purpose Recent research shows that because of money-laundering risks, there has been an increase in the off-boarding of certain types of corporate clients in the financial sector. This phenomenon known as “de-risking” has been argued to have a negative impact on society, because it increases the possible risk of money laundering. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the de-risking strategy of financial institutions results in an expansion of the regulatory framework concerning anti-money laundering focusing on off-boarding of clients and, if so, is there a way to avoid further regulation by changing present behavior. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies functional methods to law and economics to achieve higher efficiency in combating money laundering. Findings In this paper, it is found that the continuing of de-risking by financial institutions because of the avoidance strategy of money-laundering risks will inevitably result in further regulatory demands regarding the off-boarding process of clients. The legal basis for the introduction of further regulatory intervention is that some of the de-risking constitutes a direct contradiction to the aim of the present regulatory framework, making the behavior non-compliant to the regulation. Originality/value There has been very little research concerning de-risking related to money laundering. The present research has focused on the effect on society and not the relationship between the financial institutions and the regulator. This paper raises an important and present problem, as the behavior of the financial institutions constitute a response from the regulator that is contradicting the thoughts behind the behavior of the financial institutions. It is found that the paper is highly relevant if an expansion of regulation is to be hindered.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

scholarly journals Malaysian residential mortgage loan default: a micro-level analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azira Abdul Adzis ◽  
Hock Eam Lim ◽  
Siew Goh Yeok ◽  
Asish Saha
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Mortgage Loan ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Residential Mortgage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Lending Institutions

PurposeThis study investigates factors contributing to residential mortgage loans default by utilizing a unique dataset of borrowers' default data from one of the pioneer lending institutions in Malaysia that provides home financing to the public. Studies on mortgage loan default have been extensively examined, but limited studies utilize the individual borrower's data, as financial institutions generally hesitant to reveal their customers' data due to confidentiality issue.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses logistic regression model to analyze 47,158 housing loan borrowers' data for the year 2016.FindingsThe findings suggest that male borrowers, Malay and other type of ethnicity, guarantor availability, loan original balance, loan tenure, loan interest rate and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio are the significant factors that influence mortgage loans default in Malaysia.Research limitations/implicationsFuture studies may expand the sample by employing data from other types of financial institutions that would give greater insights as findings might vary due to differences in objectives, functions and regulations. In addition, the findings are subjected to the censoring bias where future studies could perform the survival analysis to control for censoring bias and re-validating the findings of the present study.Practical implicationsThe findings provide valuable insights for lending institutions and the government to formulate housing loan policy in Malaysia.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in the context of emerging economies that uses financial institution's internal data to investigate factors of mortgage loan default.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

May will pursue ‘hard’ Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Freedom Of Action ◽  
The Eu

Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Rural protests could quickly snowball in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Tens of thousands of farmers and indigenous people have taken part in demonstrations since May 30 in protest at the government's economic policies. At least three people are reported to have been killed and some 200 injured in clashes with police. The protesters claim that promises made following similar protests in 2013 have not been honoured and that the government's free trade policies harm Colombian workers. Impacts While protests are unlikely to threaten the government or the peace process, they could complicate and draw out talks. In guerrilla-controlled areas, the government will strive to show it is capable of providing order and prosperity. Colombian protests will have no direct impact on TPP talks but may be an indicator of trouble ahead in countries that are party to the deal.

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