Ruling Kenyan party on course to retain the presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
Political Coalitions ◽  
Electoral Violence

Significance The Kenyan President, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his deputy William Ruto are on course to win the 2017 presidential election, but the outcome of county and parliamentary electoral competitions is less certain. The shape of political coalitions and dynamics in local elections will shape the potential for electoral violence. Impacts The election will usher in a new era of Kenyan politics as Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will likely not run in 2022. Kenyatta may pursue populist policies appealing across ethnic lines such as a recent law capping interest rates. A spate of parliamentary defections to the president's new party may weaken the legislature's checks on the executive.

Bhutan’s next government will aim to diversify economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Violence ◽  
India And China

Significance The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was ousted in the first round on September 15. The DNT and DPT manifestos concentrate on youth unemployment and public debt. The 2013 elections, which involved debate about Bhutan’s relations with close ally India and China, saw several DNT candidates joining the PDP after the first round. Impacts Polling in the second round will be peaceful, with electoral violence highly unlikely. The new government will come under pressure to curb corruption. The Maldives will favour India over China following Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s surprise win in the presidential election.

Mozambique’s FRELIMO will struggle to stem unrest

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Northern Province ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Private Sector Development

Significance Home to major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, the northern province has been beset by a spate of alleged Islamist militant attacks in recent weeks, with at least 40 people killed. While the FRELIMO government has recently trumpeted progress in the protracted peace talks with rebel movement RENAMO, worsening security problems in Cabo Delgado are threatening investments that are crucial to easing a persistent debt crisis. Impacts Private-sector development will be further hindered by high interest rates and unpaid government arrears. Cooperation between RENAMO and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) may increase ahead of the local elections. Cabo Delgado terrorism could overshadow RENAMO-linked insecurity in the short term.

Portugal is no longer immune from the far right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Identity ◽  
Popular Party

Significance Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, finished third in Portugal’s presidential election in January with 12% of the vote. Most polls now suggest that it is the third most popular party in Portugal. Chega’s core identity centres around its anti-establishment views, as well as hostility towards minority groups, in particular the Roma community. Impacts Local elections in October will be a stronger barometer of Chega’s appeal in Portugal than the presidential election. If Chega continues to expand its support, Portugal’s other right-wing parties could adopt some of its views and rhetoric. Chega founder Ventura’s association with Benfica football club could damage his appeal in the north, where arch-rival Porto dominates. Like other far-right parties, Chega could transition from advocating neoliberalism to more popular economic positions over time.

Colombia violence to rise as elections approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Subject Peace process. Significance The 2016 peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC) was a major step towards ending more than half a century of armed conflict and was hailed by many as the dawn of a new era for Colombia. However, the roll-out of the deal is facing institutional, social and financial challenges amid increasing polarisation fuelled by President Ivan Duque’s attempts to reform the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), the transitional justice system created to facilitate the peace process. Impacts The reopening of the debate on the statutory law of the JEP has set a dangerous precedent for future negotiations with other armed groups. Dissident FARC groups constitute a growing threat to security in a number of peripheral regions. Military scandals threaten further to undermine faith in the state’s commitment to peace, encouraging more demobilised rebels to rearm. Acts of intimidation and violence against local community leaders will increase ahead of October’s regional and local elections.

Taiwan's new premier will focus on economy, not China

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Politics in Taiwan. Significance President Tsai Ing-wen has refreshed her administration through a cabinet reshuffle. The appointment as premier of William Lai, a rising star in the ruling party, boosted Tsai's falling ratings substantially. However, Lai, an open advocate of Taiwanese independence, has already made comments antagonising Beijing. Impacts Lai will bring new energy to economic policy initiatives, but his popularity will suffer from slow implementation. Lai might seek to represent the party in the next presidential election, but he probably has too much to lose. Despite Tsai’s low approval ratings, her party will be energised for local elections against a floundering main opposition next year.

Ecuador local elections signal Alianza Pais collapse

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Political Field ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Right ◽  
Initial Results ◽  
Real Test

Significance The elections were the first real test of the strength of President Lenin Moreno’s reformed Alianza Pais (AP), which has splintered since former President Rafael Correa left office in 2017. Initial results signal the collapse of the party as a national political force and the fragmentation of the political field. Impacts AP’s poor performance will encourage party legislators to defect as the presidential and legislative elections approach. The legislature will become more fragmented and Moreno will become more reliant on cross-party alliances to pass legislation. The right will be well placed to win the presidential election, though Correa and his supporters will mount a serious challenge.

Economic policy will be unpredictable after Turks vote

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Interest ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government

Significance The TCMB has responded quickly to a new wave of lira volatility ahead of local elections, forcing banks to borrow at the overnight rate of 25.5% instead of the 24.0% policy rate. Such decisiveness defies President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s antipathy to high interest rates and is particularly welcome as the government tries to bolster support by reviving economic activity through accelerated public spending and ad hoc interventions. Impacts A lira collapse would trigger renewed crisis and may be avoided, but nominal depreciation is likely and lira volatility almost certain. Inflation may decline, but only to 12-15% from September onwards. Low investor and consumer confidence, weak external demand and high interest rates, debt and unemployment may keep recovery to 0-2% growth. Economic discontent will persist into 2020, inducing Erdogan to continue clamping down despite the tradition for post-election conciliation.

COVID concerns will consume Macron's domestic agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance It was expected that the reshuffle would reflect a policy pivot towards social and environmental priorities in the wake of COVID-19 and as a response to the outcome of local elections this year. Instead, personnel change was very modest and underpinned Macron’s focus on managing the current crisis and consolidating right-wing support ahead of the April 2022 presidential election. Impacts Polls suggest the far-right National Rally is failing to take advantage of the COVID-19 crisis. Recent surges in COVID-19 cases suggest France’s economic recovery will be slower than expected. Rising COVID-19 cases across Europe will increase pressure on the EU to acclerate the rollout of its recovery fund.

Development and validation of financial well-being related scales

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 1025-1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farah Diba M.A. Abrantes-Braga ◽  
Tania Veludo-de-Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Discriminant Validity ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Confirmatory Factor Analyses ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Convergent And Discriminant Validity ◽  
Group Interviews ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Additional Income

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop valid and reliable scales for assessing a driver and two obstacles potentially related to financial well-being (FWB): financial preparedness for emergency, beliefs of credit limits as additional income and risky indebtedness behaviour.Design/methodology/approachThe scales were developed from scratch across six studies, employing a two-step methodology, which encompassed both qualitative (e.g. focus group, interviews) and quantitative (i.e. online surveys) data collection. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were employed to test and validate the proposed scales.FindingsThis study provides a set of three parsimonious, self-reported behavioural measures that could be employed in conjunction with objective economic indicators to identify individuals who are financially ill prepared and potential candidates for delinquency. The three proposed scales achieved satisfactory levels of reliability and convergent and discriminant validity.Research limitations/implicationsThe resulting scales still need to be tested for predictive validity and in different consumer groups. The scales were validated in a single culture population (Brazil, a country that presents extraordinarily high credit card interest rates), and they should be tested cross-culturally in countries with different economic and credit policies.Originality/valueThe literature on FWB has traditionally employed objective financial indicators as an attempt to measure the concept of FWB and its elements. Self-reported behavioural measures of such constructs are scant to the point of being non-existent for some elements. This study is the first to offer scales for measuring the elements of financial preparedness for emergency, beliefs of credit limits as additional income and risky indebtedness behaviour.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

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