Taiwan's new premier will focus on economy, not China

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Politics in Taiwan. Significance President Tsai Ing-wen has refreshed her administration through a cabinet reshuffle. The appointment as premier of William Lai, a rising star in the ruling party, boosted Tsai's falling ratings substantially. However, Lai, an open advocate of Taiwanese independence, has already made comments antagonising Beijing. Impacts Lai will bring new energy to economic policy initiatives, but his popularity will suffer from slow implementation. Lai might seek to represent the party in the next presidential election, but he probably has too much to lose. Despite Tsai’s low approval ratings, her party will be energised for local elections against a floundering main opposition next year.

Dominican president will strive to run again

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Political Factions ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Ruling party struggles. Significance The Dominican Republic is enjoying strong economic growth but faces rising political uncertainty. Divisions within the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) over the Law of Political Parties and candidates for the 2020 presidential election have dominated debates in recent months. On June 7, after more than a year of investigations into the Odebrecht scandal, the Attorney General indicted seven politicians for bribery while controversially exonerating key PLD leaders. Impacts Internationally controversial anti-migration policies are unlikely to soften as political factions vie for public support. The Dominican Republic will remain one of the fastest-growing economies in the region despite political uncertainties. The country’s investment-friendly environment is unlikely to be at risk even during the electoral campaign.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Colombia's Duque faces a tough year in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings

Subject Duque troubles. Significance Colombian Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo on December 30 announced the arrests of three Venezuelan nationals suspected of plotting to assassinate President Ivan Duque. The announcement comes as Duque enters 2019, his first full year in office, against a backdrop of rising tensions with the Venezuelan government, plummeting domestic approval ratings and protests by citizens angry with his government’s stance on numerous issues including education, taxation, corruption and security. Impacts The recent dip in global oil prices could, if it continues, threaten oil investment and revenue. The encroachment of Colombian armed groups into Venezuelan territory will increase the risk of diplomatic incidents. October 2019 local elections could see Duque's party lose many of the urban centres it currently controls to the opposition.

South Korea's leader may be less secure than he looks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The strengths and weaknesses of South Korea's president and ruling party. Significance President Moon Jae-in's approval rating was 79% as of June 14, a record for any South Korean president after a year in office. His left-of-centre ruling Democratic Party (DP) won an unprecedented landslide in nationwide local elections on June 13; it now runs 14 of the 17 provinces and major cities. The party also won eleven of twelve National Assembly by-elections, gaining eight. He now faces no electoral tests until the next parliamentary elections, due in April 2020. Impacts Political party regroupings are likely, with possible mergers consolidating both the left and right. The short-term prospects for inter-Korean engagement appear good. The main risks regarding North Korea are US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and uncertainty over Pyongyang's ultimate aims.

New Uruguay government's COVID-19 boost will not last

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
The Impact

Significance The contraction preceded the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. The large inherited fiscal deficit and rising debt-to-GDP ratio are forcing the new government to take unpopular measures to strengthen public accounts. However, its apparent success in combating the pandemic has given it strong approval ratings that will help facilitate reforms. Impacts Reform plans will seek to maintain Uruguay’s investment grade rating. Rising poverty and unemployment may compromise efforts to cut public spending. Splits in the governing coalition may appear ahead of September's local elections.

Portugal is no longer immune from the far right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Identity ◽  
Popular Party

Significance Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, finished third in Portugal’s presidential election in January with 12% of the vote. Most polls now suggest that it is the third most popular party in Portugal. Chega’s core identity centres around its anti-establishment views, as well as hostility towards minority groups, in particular the Roma community. Impacts Local elections in October will be a stronger barometer of Chega’s appeal in Portugal than the presidential election. If Chega continues to expand its support, Portugal’s other right-wing parties could adopt some of its views and rhetoric. Chega founder Ventura’s association with Benfica football club could damage his appeal in the north, where arch-rival Porto dominates. Like other far-right parties, Chega could transition from advocating neoliberalism to more popular economic positions over time.

Ruling Kenyan party on course to retain the presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
Political Coalitions ◽  
Electoral Violence

Significance The Kenyan President, Uhuru Kenyatta, and his deputy William Ruto are on course to win the 2017 presidential election, but the outcome of county and parliamentary electoral competitions is less certain. The shape of political coalitions and dynamics in local elections will shape the potential for electoral violence. Impacts The election will usher in a new era of Kenyan politics as Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will likely not run in 2022. Kenyatta may pursue populist policies appealing across ethnic lines such as a recent law capping interest rates. A spate of parliamentary defections to the president's new party may weaken the legislature's checks on the executive.

Burundian constitutional reform will deepen crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Basic Needs ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Burundi constitutional reform Significance President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term has been marred by accusations of state-sponsored extrajudicial killings, a regional refugee crisis and international ostracism. Recently, he has launched a campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to run for the presidency again. The government has also hinted at other significant constitutional changes and restructurings of laws governing parties and politics. This would further contract Burundi’s democratic space, already in peril since a 2015 coup attempt and contested presidential election. Impacts Nkurunziza’s plans will face little opposition either from non-partisans within the ruling party or from the formal opposition. Despite deteriorating conditions, most international donors will provide only minimal levels of aid to meet basic needs. Without significant intervention, assassinations and disappearances linked to the regime will likely continue.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

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