Cambodia education reform could help investors

Subject Education reform, labour supply and economic development in Cambodia. Significance Legislators passed the 2017 budget on November 22 with spending increases on vocational training and education. The government plans to move Cambodia into the upper-middle-income category (as defined by the World Bank) by 2030. This will require economic diversification, particularly away from agriculture and reliance on low-skilled garment manufacturing toward higher value-added activities such as automobile assembly and semiconductor production. This will need progressively more skilled labour, requiring education reforms. Impacts Improving Cambodia's skills base could attract more foreign investment and new jobs. US abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership will reduce competition facing Cambodian manufacturing, for now. As economic opportunities develop, inward migration is possible, requiring urban and rural planning.

Subject Economic problems in Turkmenistan. Significance Although Turkmenistan has the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves and is classed as an 'upper middle income' country by the World Bank, few signs of wealth are evident apart from prestige construction projects. Reports of food shortages and inflation suggest the government lacks the export revenues to support a state-controlled economy. Impacts Nominal wage increases will not offset the decline in consumer purchasing power due to inflation and manat devaluation. The number of Turkmenistan nationals working abroad will grow further. If the government is prepared to reciprocate, other Central Asian states are increasingly interested in expanding trade links.


Significance This continues the policy preference -- out of line with Poland’s peers -- for indirect taxes on goods and services, including a relatively high value-added tax (VAT) rate. The government says the sugar tax aims to curb rising obesity, but critics suspect it is a new way of raising revenue. Impacts Corporate taxes could be raised as an alternative source of revenue. Left unaddressed, the regressive trend in taxes and rising inequality may create an opening for the leftist Spring and Together parties. If UK taxes rise post-pandemic, the relative fall in disposable income could encourage Polish immigrants to return to Poland.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngozi Adeleye ◽  
Evans Osabuohien ◽  
Simplice Asongu

PurposeThe study aims to analyse the role of finance in the agro-industrialisation nexus in Nigeria using annual data on manufacturing value added, agricultural value added and volume of finance availed to the agricultural sector from 1981 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachTo establish the presence of a long-run relationship, the error correction model and bounds cointegration techniques are employed. Likewise, the model is augmented to test whether the associated relationship between industrial output and agricultural output depends on access to finance by farmers with the inclusion of an interaction term.FindingsSome salient contributions to the literature are as follows: agriculture and finance are strong and positive predictors of industrialisation in the long run; in the short run, past realisations of industrial output and finance have significant asymmetric effects on industrial output; the explanatory power of agriculture decreases with the growth of the financial system; and the long-run results validate the role of finance in the agro-industrialisation nexus.Originality/valueGiven these findings, achieving growth in the agricultural sector that will induce desired industrialisation should be prioritised by the government through agencies such as the central bank, financial intermediaries and other stakeholders with a view to making agricultural financing a major concern for sustainable domestic consumption and industrial growth.


Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.


Subject Outlook for Nigeria's 2016 state budget. Significance The Senate this week will forward President Muhammadu Buhari the revised 2016 state budget, which it passed on March 23. Buhari says that he will assess it "ministry by ministry" before signing it into law to ensure that there are no irregularities in the final text. The 6.06-trillion-naira (30.6-billion-dollar) spending plan is 17 billion naira lower than the initial budget proposed by the government in December 2015. Impacts Buhari is unlikely to consider raising the value added tax given its effect on living costs, which would hurt the APC electorally. The central bank will likely keep currency restrictions in place, at least in the short term, despite their negative impact on firms. The tax compliance drive will be most effective in Lagos, due to heavy investment in collection capacity by the state government.


Subject Labour market conditions in China. Significance China’s official unemployment rate in 2014 was 4.09%, up from 4.05% in 2013. For the three previous years, it had stood still at exactly 4.10%. These implausible data give the illusion of stability during a period of slowing growth and economic uncertainty, and obscure a complex and volatile labour market that now presents a serious challenge to the government. The government is well aware of the pressures on the labour market and has stated its intention to create 10 million new jobs this year. Impacts Fewer young people will enter the workforce, and those who do will have much higher expectations. An older workforce means higher wage demands and the payment of pensions and medical insurance. China will have to find suitable employment for an increasing number of graduates; 7.5 million this year alone. Vocational and on-the-job training will have to revamped and invigorated to meet the demands of both employers and employees. The government's reliance on 'entrepreneurial spirit' to create new jobs could create more social tension.


Subject Economic diversification in Azerbaijan. Significance Speaking at the Asian Development Bank's annual board of governors meeting in Baku in early May, President Ilham Aliyev said low world oil prices had led the government to implement across-the-board cost-cutting measures to balance the budget. While Azerbaijan has always sought to reduce its dependence on the energy sector, both oil and natural gas exports will continue to be the backbone of economic growth, he declared. Diversifying the national economy away from hydrocarbons towards higher value-added industries and services remains the government's long-term key priority. However, it faces multiple structural challenges. Impacts Azerbaijan's exposure to the neighbouring Russian market will be below average. However, it will continue to be affected by its economic crisis, particularly in terms of migrant remittance flows. The government's capital spending cuts will have direct negative consequences for the downstream sector, regarded as a strategic objective.


Significance Meanwhile, the Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP), Morocco’s government-controlled phosphate company, has started production in a new fertiliser unit at its main processing and export centre in Jorf Lasfar, on the Atlantic coast. Morocco’s traditional phosphate industry has been eclipsed in recent years by the rapid development of new sectors such as the automotive and aeronautical industries, which are similarly oriented towards exports. Impacts OCP’s fertiliser production capacity will increase by 50% during 2018, boosting the value added to its phosphate mining activities. Increased volumes of exports of phosphates and fertilisers will counterbalance the impact of relatively low international prices. Once the new cycle of investment is complete, OCP will be in a position to pay back tax credits it has received from the government. Repayment of tax credits would boost OCP's international credit rating.


Significance The demonstrations form part of a broader backlash against the government’s newly introduced value-added tax (VAT) and indicate the depth of popular feeling building against President Carlos Alvarado. Impacts The risk of watering down the new VAT regime will raise concerns among investors about the government’s commitment to fiscal rigour. Delaying VAT implementation would also force the government to cut social spending in order to hit its fiscal deficit goals. The evangelical movement will demonstrate its strength in further protests throughout Alvarado’s term.


Subject Philippines automobile sector expansion efforts. Significance The Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy (CARS) became active on January 3, following its announcement by the trade and industry department (DTI) and release of the implementing rules and regulations in 2015. CARS is the most ambitious industrial policy initiative of President Benigno Aquino's administration, seeking to turn the Philippines from a vehicles importer into a regional automotive production hub. Impacts The DTI hopes for 6.4 billion dollars in new economic activity from CARS, and up to 200,000 new jobs. CARS is unlikely to be a 2016 election issue, or to be reversed after Aquino's administration ends in May. The government will need to factor increasing auto usage into its development planning, perhaps requiring new roads.


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