Alternative may emerge to full Turkish accession to EU

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
The Eu

Significance Erdogan has not softened his line towards the EU, but there has been some vacillation in the EU's approach. While EU signals on Turkey have been becoming sharper, at the informal April 28-29 foreign ministers' meeting in Malta attended by ministers from the candidate countries, the Union stepped back from a confrontation with Turkey. Impacts The lira could weaken again despite its recovery in early 2017. The business climate will be very subdued, with medium-term investment becoming more unstable. Turkey will seek trade agreements with Asian countries such as India to try to reduce the EU's role in its economy. Middle Eastern investment will continue to be welcome in Turkey, while conditions for EU investors could worsen.

Brexit turmoil may dampen EU Euroscepticism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Eu Policies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Euroscepticism in Western Europe. Significance In the aftermath of the UK referendum to leave the EU ('Brexit'), attention is turning to Euroscepticism across the continent. A number of Eurosceptic parties have called for membership referenda in their countries, while the public response has been mixed. Impacts Governments seeking to address Euroscepticism are likely to increase pressure on the EU to reform. Economic recovery and a slowdown of migrant flows may benefit mainstream parties and reduce support for Eurosceptic movements. Unpopular EU policies may be put on hold in the short-to-medium term -- likely affecting trade agreements CETA and TTIP.

ASEAN-UK trade deals hold promise, amid bottlenecks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Implementation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK post-Brexit trade with ASEAN. Significance The UK government is retooling trade policy ahead of the United Kingdom's departure from the EU in March 2019 after which it will regain its ability to negotiate trade deals. In April, UK international trade secretary Liam Fox confirmed that this would include seeking free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN and its member states. Impacts ASEAN infrastructure and regulatory imbalances will stifle efficient trade growth in the medium term. Effective implementation of trade deals will require the United Kingdom to settle its post-Brexit WTO arrangements quickly. The May 16 ECJ ruling could make it easier for the European Commission to agree FTAs without portfolio investment provisions.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

EU offers fair dealing in its 'Belt and Road' response

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fair Trade ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fair Dealing ◽  
Digital Network ◽  
Transport Connectivity ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Eu

Subject The EU's answer to Belt and Road. Significance A strategy paper called 'Connecting Europe and Asia' is the most detailed exposition to date of the EU's emerging approach towards China's Belt and Road transport infrastructure initiative. It envisages investment in land, sea and air routes, and improved digital network connections, all founded on fair trade, EU market rules and new partnerships with Asian countries. Impacts The EU strategy may encourage states in Eastern Europe to avoid over-reliance on China. In landlocked Central Asia, there is little the EU can offer that outweighs the transport connectivity opportunities offered by China. Russia's response will be important: it may find EU initiatives more attractive than expanding Chinese economic influence.

Brexit will be damaging for UK-EU services trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance Even if it succeeds, this will have a greater disruptive impact on the trade in services than goods, because the EU’s single market enables greater cross-border services trade than is typical of other free trade agreements (FTAs). This is likely to cut the volume of EU-UK services trade, in which the United Kingdom currently enjoys a substantial surplus. Impacts The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will diminish its appeal for multinationals over the next few years, at least. The new UK immigration system could result in staff shortages in low-skilled services sectors. The imperative of tackling COVID-19 will likely delay the conclusion of new trade deals with non-EU countries.

EU is likely to renew Russia sanctions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Steady Pressure ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
The Eu

Significance Russia has said the ban is in response to the EU's sanctions against Russia. EU economic sanctions expire at the end of July, and their renewal requires consensus. The contingent nature of the circumstances that allowed the sanctions' introduction has led to speculation that the EU will be unable to maintain its united stance. The entry ban forms part of Russia's effort to split the bloc before its sanctions renewal decision. Impacts The sanctions renewal decision could come at the June 25-26 EU summit, or be delayed to a later foreign ministers' meeting. Washington is likely to maintain steady pressure on its European allies to maintain a hard line against Moscow on Ukraine. The CEE EU states' responsibilities as EU and NATO members are likely to override their views of their own interests. The outcome of the Iran nuclear negotiations could affect EU views about the effectiveness of sanctions as a diplomatic tool.

EU-US TTIP talks are unlikely to progress

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Public Opposition

Subject The prospects for finalising TTIP. Significance While the EU as a whole -- the European Commission, most member states and a majority of members of the European Parliament (EP) -- appears to remain committed to a wide-ranging agreement with the United States, there are growing indications that public opposition may render the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement politically unviable. Impacts TTIP is estimated to raise the EU's GDP by 0.5%. European governments may decide that such a modest growth boost is not worth the political problems generated by the negotiations. If implemented, its terms could serve as a blueprint for future trade agreements between the EU and other countries. The deal's prospects will be diminished by the US election cycle's appeals to protectionist sentiment.

Asia-centred trade pacts will proceed with weaknesses

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
State Regional

Significance In contrast to this tariff escalation, eagerness to preserve the multilateral, rules-based economic order is drawing Asian countries into inter-regional trade agreements. Negotiations are ongoing to bring into effect a 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and an eleven-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Impacts Absent US involvement in the trade agreements, China will champion its own version of global free trade. Modifications within the CPTPP may reduce any incentive for the United States to rejoin. A US withdrawal from the WTO would weaken dispute systems used by smaller countries.

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