Cambodia security forces could be election wildcard

Subject Elections and security. Significance The interior minister has ordered security personnel to assure “equal security to all political parties” contesting the June 4 commune council elections. Yet this follows remarks by other officials that “war” will occur if the governing Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) loses these or the 2018 general election, and promising a crackdown if the opposition does not respect either election’s result and undertakes violent street protests. Cambodia’s security forces will be central to election security, to any crackdown and to the post-election period. However, concerns have been raised about their relationship with the state. Impacts Using the security forces to perpetuate CPP rule could undermine Cambodia’s democratisation. However, renewed CPP government would assure internal security, aiding economic growth and investment. If the CNRP wins in 2018, the CPP would likely demand a power-sharing agreement rather than leave office.

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.


Subject Bosnia’s election aftermath. Significance Political parties must now start talks to form coalitions at various levels after elections that strengthened hard-line nationalists. A dispute over the Croat seat in the state presidency has deepened the rift between Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and Croats, further complicating government formation. Impacts Lacking its upper parliamentary chamber, the Federation be unable to pass the 2019 budget, signalling the start of institutional collapse. Little may be expected from the EU in the deepening political crisis. Continuing chaos will boost emigration, especially among the young and educated.


Subject Outlook for Cambodia's local elections on June 4. Significance Cambodia holds elections for commune/Sangkat councils on June 4, local administrative units consisting of clusters of villages. The election result will indicate the popularity of the two main political parties that will compete in the 2018 general election, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Impacts Post-commune-election protests are likely, but will not reach the same height as after the 2013 election. Ahead of 2018, the CPP will push populist economic policies such as higher state officals pay to gain votes. Should the CNRP win the commune election, legislative instability may follow before the 2018 election.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.


Significance Andika is the son-in-law of AM Hendropriyono, a retired general and former head of the State Intelligence Agency who is an influential adviser to Jokowi. Andika's appointment will run to December 2022, when he will reach the mandatory retirement age of 58. Impacts Deployment of security personnel to Papua will increase. Jokowi will continue to rely heavily on Hendropriyono’s advice. As with Andika’s appointment, political calculations will be key in Jokowi’s next pick as TNI chief.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Author(s):  
Astrid Jamar ◽  
Gerard Birantamije

Military politics have been entangled with the trajectory of Burundian public institutions, experiences of violence, and the army formation. From 1994 to 2009, the peace process brought together different political parties, security forces, and rebel groups to negotiate ceasefires and major institutional reforms. Adopted in 2000, the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement contained some of the most ambitious and sophisticated security reforms. While most literature emphasizes mostly on the Arusha Peace Agreement, 22 agreements were signed by different sets of parties, including political parties and rebel groups during these 15 years of peace meditation. The Arusha Peace Agreement provides for complex security arrangements: (a) a strictly defined role, structure, and mandate of the army and other security forces; (b) sophisticated power-sharing arrangements for both leadership and composition of the army and other security forces; (c) demobilization, disarmament, integration, and training of armed forces; (d) transformation of armed groups into political parties; and (e) ceasefires. The peace talks integrated various armed political groups into Burundian institutions. Responding to four decades of violence and military dictatorship, these reforms of the military and other security forces aimed to disentangle the military from politics. Initially contested, the agreements shaped the reading of the historical contexts that justified these institutional military reforms. Indeed, provisions of these agreements also framed a narrative about violence and imposed fixed interpretations of political mobilization of violence. These imposed interpretations neglected key elements that enabled and, continue to enable, the political use of violence as well as the emergence of new forms of military politics. The main institutional approaches adopted to tackle issue of inclusion and correct imbalances in armed forces was the introduction of power-sharing arrangements based on ethnic dimensions. The formulation and further implementation of ethnic quotas reinforced the binary elements of ethnic identities, rather than promote a more fluid understanding that would appreciate intersecting elements, such as gender, political affiliation, and class and regional dimensions in the undertaking of power, alliance, and relations between executive and military institutions. Security reforms continue to affect the functioning of public institutions, with limited effects for disentangling politics and military.


Author(s):  
Shelley Baranowski

This chapter focuses on two major Weimar political parties, the anti-republican German National People’s Party (DNVP) and Catholic Centre Party, which acknowledged the Weimar Republic’s legitimacy and occupied a crucial position in every national coalition until mid-1932. Ultimately the DNVP’s support crumbled because it could not meet the expectations of its middle-class constituents. Although the Centre’s electorate remained stable by comparison, both parties succumbed ultimately to the determination of conservative elites after 1930 to pursue their interests through the commanding heights of the state and impose an authoritarian system.


Significance Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity. Impacts Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control. Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws. The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades. Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.


Subject Sierra Leone's new president Significance Julius Maada Bio of the opposition Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) was elected as Sierra Leone's new president on April 4. According to the National Electoral Commission, Maada Bio secured 51.8% of votes cast to defeat Samura Kamara of the ruling All People's Congress (APC). Despite pockets of election-related violence and disputes over some results, the peaceful transfer of power represents the second democratic transition between political parties in the post-war period. Impacts The new parliament could offer greater legislative scrutiny than in recent years. Sporadic election-related violence, often ethno-regional, is likely to subside in the short term. Despite intense political pressure, courts showed relative independence during the election cycle.


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