Electoral reform may not reshape Italy’s party system

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party System ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Law Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Electoral Law

Subject Italy’s electoral law reform. Significance Efforts to find cross-party agreement on even limited electoral reform foundered in June when the governing Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S) abandoned efforts to push through rapid change ahead of an early general election. Long-held hopes of finding a formula which would give one party a clear mandate therefore seem to have died. Impacts Without far more radical reform than is now likely, the next parliament will be elected by a very pure form of proportional representation. Weak economic performance and a large public debt burden will continue to tie government hands. Resentment at EU budgetary restrictions and insufficient EU assistance to deal with migrant flows will fuel Eurosceptic populism.

Italy will see volatile general election campaign

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party System ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Northern League ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Electoral Law

Subject Italy’s upcoming general election. Significance Two of the four main parties competing in Italy’s next general election on March 4 -- the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Northern League, between them likely to win at least 40% of the vote -- are populist movements with marked anti-European and anti-immigrant elements. Neither will win a majority on its own, but their combined support levels will prevent either of the other two main parties, the Democratic Party (PD) and Forza Italia, from winning a majority. Impacts Intensifying debates around Italy’s euro-area membership after the election would worry financial markets. A long period of political stalemate may undermine confidence in Italy’s capacity to implement reforms. The new electoral law may help in assembling majorities but the shape of the party system will continue to undermine strong coalitions.

State elections could bring down Italy’s coalition

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Immigration Laws ◽  
The Future ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Positive Results

Subject Regional elections in Italy. Significance The January 26 elections in Emilia Romagna will not only be significant for the future of regional governance, but also the survival of Italy’s fragile coalition of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). Poor results for both would increase the chances of snap elections in 2020, which Matteo Salvini’s League Party would likely win. Impacts Should the M5S suffer losses, pressure will grow on leader Luigi di Maio to resign, while further defections will be a strong possibility. Other divisive issues, including judicial and electoral reform, and the future of Alitalia could help trigger the coalition’s collapse. Positive results for the coalition parties would likely give Rome the stability significantly to reform Salvini’s hostile immigration laws.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Di Maio may play a key role in Italy’s next election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Subject Profile of Luigi Di Maio. Significance Luigi Di Maio was elected parliamentary leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S) in September. He will be the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the general election due by May 2018. At 31, he has a very limited track record -- elected to the Chamber of Deputies only in 2013 -- but has been one of the few M5S parliamentarians to establish a public profile. In M5S terms he is classed as a moderate and will seek to give the movement an image that appeals to a wider range of centrist voters. Impacts The unpredictability of an M5S government would worry investors. Di Maio’s success will depend on whether the movement’s more radical activists accept his attempts to change course. Despite Italy’s large debt burden a crisis is unlikely as long as interest rates remain low.

EU proposal could prevent Italian government collapse

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
Five Star Movement

Subject Outlook for Italian government. Significance The six-week delay in publishing the draft 'Relaunch Decree' underlines the deepening division within the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). It also shows Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s lack of political support as he moves from tackling the medical emergency to addressing the deep economic downturn. Impacts The EU’s proposed recovery programme will narrow the spread between German and Italian government bonds. Italy’s recession could increase the country’s demand for foreign direct investment from China. If the League’s support continues to decline, Salvini’s leadership of the party will come under greater scrutiny.

Local Elections

2020 ◽  
pp. 381-399
Author(s):  
Ulrik Kjær
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party System ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Electoral Law

Local elections are held every fourth year in the ninety-eight municipalities and the five regions of Denmark. Five features following from the local electoral law are used as points of departure to analyse the local elections: extended suffrage, non-concurrency with national elections, low formal but high natural thresholds, influential preference votes, and indirectly elected mayors. Thinking of local elections not as second-order but second-tier elections, it is concluded that the local vote is very local, with more than seven in ten voters basing their vote on local issues, the local campaign, and local candidates. This is despite the fact that the local party system is heavily nationalized and has come to resemble the national party system more and more. Most of the parties represented in national parliament run in almost all municipalities and regions and gain representation in many of these, while local non-partisan lists only play a minor role and conquer less than one seat in twenty. The two largest parties, the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, share among them almost two-thirds of the seats and a clear majority of the mayoralties.

M5S strength could tip Italy's referendum outcome

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Ambiguity ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Subject Italy's Five Star Movement. Significance Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) was catapulted to prominence on a wave of popular protest in the 2013 general election. Despite its internal arguments, structural ambiguity and many questionable tactics, it has not, like similar populist parties, collapsed in on itself. Rather, its influence on national politics has grown steadily. Impacts The M5S's refusal to work with other parties forces Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party to stay in an awkward alliance with the right. Against earlier pledges, Renzi may carry on even if he is defeated in the referendum, but his authority would be diminished. A 'no' vote in the referendum could precipitate a serious worsening of the credit crunch driving the Italian recession. A standoff between Rome and Brussels over how to respond to an Italian banking crisis could threaten the stability of the entire euro-area.

Warring Moldovan leaders look to 2018 polls

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Will

Significance The Moldovan defence ministry sent 57 soldiers in defiance of a veto by President Igor Dodon, who favours Moscow and is in constant conflict with the pro-European government. The incident illustrates a domestic schism that is fuelling tensions with Moscow and the separatist entity of Transnistria, itself a Russian client. Impacts The Democratic Party may have reduced its chances of building a pro-EU coalition by reforming the electoral system. The votes of labour migrants in Russia and Europe will matter but the electoral reform bill is unclear on voting arrangements. Neither Moldova nor Transnistria has the armed forces or the will to move towards hostilities.

Italy’s new party dynamics are here to stay

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Party System ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Italian Politics

Subject Italy's party system. Significance Italy’s party system has changed significantly in the wake of the economic and immigration crises, with the traditional centre-right and centre-left blocs undermined by the rise of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League. Despite the collapse of the M5S-League government after only 14 months, both parties will continue to occupy substantial ground in Italian politics for the foreseeable future. Impacts Spending limits as a result of EU fiscal rules and weak market confidence in government bonds are squeezing Italy's ability to modernise. Plans to cut the number of seats in parliament from 630 to 400 may avert a snap election as hundreds of MPs will lose their jobs. A potential gap in the Italian political marketplace concerns post-millennial climate change activism.

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