State elections could bring down Italy’s coalition

Subject Regional elections in Italy. Significance The January 26 elections in Emilia Romagna will not only be significant for the future of regional governance, but also the survival of Italy’s fragile coalition of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). Poor results for both would increase the chances of snap elections in 2020, which Matteo Salvini’s League Party would likely win. Impacts Should the M5S suffer losses, pressure will grow on leader Luigi di Maio to resign, while further defections will be a strong possibility. Other divisive issues, including judicial and electoral reform, and the future of Alitalia could help trigger the coalition’s collapse. Positive results for the coalition parties would likely give Rome the stability significantly to reform Salvini’s hostile immigration laws.

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.


Subject Italy's Five Star Movement. Significance Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) was catapulted to prominence on a wave of popular protest in the 2013 general election. Despite its internal arguments, structural ambiguity and many questionable tactics, it has not, like similar populist parties, collapsed in on itself. Rather, its influence on national politics has grown steadily. Impacts The M5S's refusal to work with other parties forces Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party to stay in an awkward alliance with the right. Against earlier pledges, Renzi may carry on even if he is defeated in the referendum, but his authority would be diminished. A 'no' vote in the referendum could precipitate a serious worsening of the credit crunch driving the Italian recession. A standoff between Rome and Brussels over how to respond to an Italian banking crisis could threaten the stability of the entire euro-area.


Subject Italy’s electoral law reform. Significance Efforts to find cross-party agreement on even limited electoral reform foundered in June when the governing Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S) abandoned efforts to push through rapid change ahead of an early general election. Long-held hopes of finding a formula which would give one party a clear mandate therefore seem to have died. Impacts Without far more radical reform than is now likely, the next parliament will be elected by a very pure form of proportional representation. Weak economic performance and a large public debt burden will continue to tie government hands. Resentment at EU budgetary restrictions and insufficient EU assistance to deal with migrant flows will fuel Eurosceptic populism.


Significance In the lead is the three-party PAN coalition, comprising the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), all parties with their origins in the one-time Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). However, with just one-third of the popular vote and a projected 39 seats in Kosovo’s 120-seat parliament, the coalition’s tally has fallen well short of the working majority needed to form a government. Waiting to take power is the populist, anti-establishment Vetevendosje movement, offering the prospect of radical change in Kosovo’s politics. Impacts The chance of market-based reforms has fallen; a Vetevendosje-led government would try to reverse such policies as privatisation. Vetevendosje’s potential exclusion from government risks further civil unrest, amid poor living standards and anger with the establishment. The near-inevitability of hardline nationalists entering government implies worse relations with Serbia and possibly a serious incident. EU integration will remain stuck since there is little chance of the new parliament ratifying the border agreement with Montenegro.


Significance Khabarovsk is entering a third week of sustained protests following the arrest of regional governor Sergey Furgal. The Kremlin has not responded to this act of rebellion and has instead produced a hierarchical solution, installing a replacement governor with none of the skills needed in this explosive situation. Impacts The timing means that (barring a rule change) Khabarovsk's gubernatorial election is likely next year, not this. The protests in Khabarovsk and elsewhere may damage electoral support for United Russia in regional and parliamentary elections. A new law allowing voting over several days, initially in regional elections, will permit manipulation to keep United Russia's vote up. If the situation deteriorates, the president will shift the blame onto the Liberal Democratic Party.


Author(s):  
Gary Lamph ◽  
Cameron Latham ◽  
Debra Smith ◽  
Andrew Brown ◽  
Joanne Doyle ◽  
...  

Purpose – An innovative training initiative to raise the awareness of personality disorder and enable more effective working with people with personality disorder who come into contact with the wider multi-agency system has been developed. For the purpose of the training initiative the nationally recognised Knowledge and Understanding Framework (KUF, awareness-level programme) has been employed. An overview of the comprehensive multi-agency training initiative will be outlined with reporting and discussion of the outcome data provided within this paper. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This paper outlines the development and outcomes of a service evaluation study. The utilised outcome measures were carried out at pre-, post- and three-month follow-up measures. The Personality Disorder-Knowledge Attitude and Skills Questionnaire was utilised on the recommendation of the central team. Additionally a Visual Analogue Scale was developed for the purpose of this study was also employed. Findings – Data findings are positive particularly when comparing pre- and post-results and the pre- and follow-up results. There appears to be an apparent peak in results post-training which could be attributed to the fact that knowledge and understanding is recent and fresh in the delegates mind, however positive results are still reported at follow-up there does appear to be decline in results and durability of the effect when three-month follow-up is compared against the post-training results. Research limitations/implications – Follow-up was at three months, which is a relatively short-time span post-training it would be of great interest to see in the future if the decline in the three areas continues. If this was followed up and if this pattern continued this could provide us with evidence to support the development of refresher courses. In the future, due to the multi-agency design of this service evaluation, comparisons of the different sectors, agencies and occupations involved, could also be explored further to establish what multi-agency areas the training has had the most effect and impact. Practical implications – High levels of demand from multi-agencies to receive training in personality disorder is reported. Our findings and experience provide evidence that multi-agencies partners from a variety of professional backgrounds can effectively work in partnership with people with lived experience to effectively deliver the KUF training. Social implications – This innovative roll-out of KUF training provides evidence that with a little investment, a comprehensive multi-agency roll-out of KUF is achievable and can provide statistically significant positive results displaying the effectiveness and change brought about via the KUF training. Originality/value – The originality of this sustainable and low-cost approach to educating the wider system is reported in this paper. This has lead to the strategy receiving national recognition winning a nursing times award in 2011 and a model of innovative practice nationally.


Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.


Subject Outlook for Italian government. Significance The six-week delay in publishing the draft 'Relaunch Decree' underlines the deepening division within the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). It also shows Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s lack of political support as he moves from tackling the medical emergency to addressing the deep economic downturn. Impacts The EU’s proposed recovery programme will narrow the spread between German and Italian government bonds. Italy’s recession could increase the country’s demand for foreign direct investment from China. If the League’s support continues to decline, Salvini’s leadership of the party will come under greater scrutiny.


Significance The legislation is the most radical and comprehensive reform of centre-regional relations since Vladimir Putin became president in 1999. Formalising and consolidating a steady process of political centralisation, it further shifts powers from the regional heads and assemblies to the president and the federal executive. Impacts After years of attempts to forge a Russia-wide ethos, local identity politics will become more visible. The September regional elections are another opportunity to pre-select regional leaders before they are approved by voters. Regional leaders removed and replaced ahead of the elections may include the Communist head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov.


Significance Unlike in most previous presidential election years, many of the protests against the current nomination process for both parties have assumed an existential quality, with many left-leaning Democrats wanting to alter the power of party leadership, and many Republicans seeking to prevent another Donald Trump-like insurgent campaign in the future. Impacts This year's record number of unaffiliated 'independent' voters nevertheless are likely to vote along partisan lines. Left-leaning activists will seek to diminish the official powers of the Democratic Party leadership. The US electoral system will continue to advantage both major parties, though lesser parties may increase their vote totals this cycle.


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