EU proposal could prevent Italian government collapse

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
Five Star Movement

Subject Outlook for Italian government. Significance The six-week delay in publishing the draft 'Relaunch Decree' underlines the deepening division within the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). It also shows Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s lack of political support as he moves from tackling the medical emergency to addressing the deep economic downturn. Impacts The EU’s proposed recovery programme will narrow the spread between German and Italian government bonds. Italy’s recession could increase the country’s demand for foreign direct investment from China. If the League’s support continues to decline, Salvini’s leadership of the party will come under greater scrutiny.

Italy’s BRI pact will be measured by domestic politics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Belt And Road

Subject Italy-China relations. Significance On March 23, Italy became the first G7 country officially to endorse China’s global infrastructure and connectivity project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, Italy’s populist government is itself divided on engagement with the BRI; the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) views it as a timely opportunity to boost Italy’s struggling economy and deliver populist fiscal policies, while the far-right League is concerned lest it lead to Chinese ‘colonisation’ of some of Italy’s ports. Ultimately, the extent of the engagement will be determined by: voter concerns; the longevity of the current government; and which party holds the balance of power over coming years. Impacts Italy will pursue closer relations with Washington than Beijing. Rome’s BRI endorsement could be used as bargaining power to sell Italian government bonds to China. Development of Italian ports will bolster connectivity with Africa.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Indian attempts to curb media may deter investors

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Speech ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Censorship ◽  
Central Level

Subject Media censorship in India. Significance The media represents one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Indian economy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has striven to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from the estimated 4.3 billion dollars in 2016 and 4.0 billion dollars in 2015. Yet potential investors may be wary of the difficult political climate currently surrounding the industry, as indicated by the recent case of NDTV, whose Hindi-language service was threatened with a 24-hour ban by the broadcasting authorities. Impacts Prospective foreign investors risk becoming involved in legal battles over freedom of speech. Firms advertising on television and in print could be affected by such battles. Media freedoms will be tested at both the regional and central level.

South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

Progressive split poses 2019 risk for Canada’s Trudeau

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
New Democratic Party

Subject Canada's federal political outlook. Significance Canada’s three main parties have all selected the leaders with which they will contest the 2019 federal election. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party now have two years in which to define themselves for the electorate and make a case for their parties to assume or resume control of government. Impacts Fallout from fundraiser links to the Paradise Papers tax avoidance controversy could undercut Trudeau’s Liberals. Trudeau’s strong Quebec ties will help him hold off the NDP, but Ontario losses could leave a Liberal minority government. Ontario’s 2018 provincial election will offer an early indication of the strength of Trudeau’s federal opponents.

Belize elections herald government shake-up

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Visitor Numbers ◽  
Socioeconomic Challenges

Significance Long-standing Prime Minister Dean Barrow will not be running again, so that Belize will experience a change of leadership even if his United Democratic Party (UDP) wins re-election. The key electoral issues will revolve around the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and allegations of corruption affecting the UDP. Impacts Tourism will be slow to recover, with ongoing restrictions and reduced visitor numbers seeing many businesses struggle. The severity of the pandemic in the United States, Belize’s main source of tourists, increases the risks of reopening to visitors. COVID-19 concerns could result in a low election turnout, undermining the mandate of the winning party. Whoever wins the election will inherit major socioeconomic challenges that will curtail any political honeymoon period.

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