Commission will seek to drive EU integration again

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Food Quality ◽  
The Other ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
The Eu

Significance Brexit was little more than a footnote in a speech that outlined several initiatives and a vision calling for the other 27 EU members to move forward together towards deeper integration as the United Kingdom prepares to leave. Impacts Juncker’s commitment to equal food quality across the EU could serve as an olive branch to Central-Eastern European governments. Efficient cooperation on cybersecurity would require more intelligence-sharing, which would encounter opposition from some member states. Euro-area integration may slow down if a liberal/centre-right CDU-FDP coalition is formed after the German elections.

EU-UK free movement compromise will need flexibility

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance The UK government says it is determined that free movement of people from the EU will end after Brexit. Impacts An upcoming immigration White Paper will provide greater clarity about the UK government’s approach. Proposals to reform the EU's Posted Workers Directive could trigger Eastern European opposition, deepening the east-west divide. Stricter post-Brexit UK immigration policies could lead to labour shortages and skills gaps in sectors such as agriculture and health. Improving euro-area economic prospects could encourage EU nationals living in the United Kingdom to return to the continent.

EU integration will be restricted post-Brexit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU direction post-Brexit. Significance Some Europhiles believe that the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU removes a veto-wielding disruptor, thereby enabling the EU to achieve deeper political and economic integration. However, opposition to integration will remain strong, with former UK policy allies in the EU now looking to occupy the ground left by the United Kingdom. Impacts German-French hopes to create European champion firms to bolster EU competition will strengthen following Brexit. The relative weight in the EU of countries opposed to using sanctions as a foreign policy tool, such as Italy and Hungary, will now grow. Future defence and security initiatives could be established outside EU structures in order to accommodate the United Kingdom.

Divergence on Chinese 5G strains 'Five Eyes' alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Market Share ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for the Five Eyes alliance. Significance The stability of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing partnership between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States is under stress over Chinese participation in the members’ 5G telecommunications networks. Impacts Possible US concessions on the supply chains of Chinese firms would ease strain within the Five Eyes alliance. European corporates will redouble efforts to burnish their security credentials to capture 5G market share. London’s eventual decision on Huawei will influence the EU and Asian democracies.

Further EU integration will be uneven and incremental

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
European Integration ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Significance The celebration came just days before the United Kingdom is set to begin the withdrawal process. Precisely what path the EU will take over the next decade remains uncertain and the European Commission has kicked off a process of dialogue on various scenarios for its future. Impacts Debates about the future of the EU will occur simultaneously with Brexit negotiations and be coloured by them. EU leaders will be keen to continue to demonstrate their commitment to press forward with European integration despite Brexit. Brexit will not lead to an unravelling of the EU and thus far has served to enhance support for the Union in other member states. Yet Brexit will not lead to any sudden deepening of integration.

Northern EU countries may lose influence post-Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.

Prospects for the EU to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the EU to end-2017. Significance At the start of this year, the EU was confronted by four crises: Brexit, the migration crisis, the euro-area crisis and democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland. Six months on, Eurosceptic populists have experienced major setbacks, economic conditions have improved, Brexit is viewed as a shambles for the United Kingdom and the EU appears poised to confront its remaining challenges from a position of greater strength.

Prospects for Europe in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Way

Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Complicated UK-WTO negotiations may hit growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Eu

Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.

May will pursue ‘hard’ Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Freedom Of Action ◽  
The Eu

Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.

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