ASEAN’s 2018 chair likely to bring more stability

Subject Outlook for the ASEAN chairmanship in 2018. Significance Singapore has started chairing ASEAN for 2018 after the Philippines rotated the chair as planned at November's meetings. Manila’s 2017 chairmanship was unsteady at times, partly because Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte changed his foreign secretary mid-year. ASEAN’s slogan for 2018 is “Resilient and Innovative”. Impacts Singapore will seek to further implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community. Counterterrorism will see more ASEAN cooperation, partly given southern Philippine concerns about Islamic State. Singapore will push for greater ASEAN technological connectivity and cybercrime preparedness. While negotiating the RCEP, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam will also eye agreeing an eleven-state Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Subject Electronics and ICT investment outlook in ASEAN states. Significance South-east Asia is removing foreign investment barriers in most electronics industries, attempting to capitalise on closer economic ties with China and digitalisation of services. Changes in supply chains are drawing investment to cheaper production bases, including Vietnam and the Philippines, forcing established manufacturers Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand to compete with China for high-end markets. This trend will intensify ahead of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) free trade area, which will be implemented in late 2015. Impacts Investment markets will be liberalised under the ASEAN Economic Community. Trade liberalisation will require expanded South-east Asian supply chains, and boost electronics industry links with China. ASEAN governments will address skills gaps to provide electronics workers as the industry grows.


Subject The outlook for anti-corruption frameworks in South-east Asia and ASEAN. Significance Over the last two decades, national anti-corruption commissions in the ASEAN-core countries -- Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines -- have become more powerful and capable of coordinating high-profile anti-corruption campaigns against those holding public office. However, such efforts have in some cases become intensely politicised, and some national commissions have struggled to remain autonomous. This will affect governance and business, especially with ASEAN integrating and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) coming in late 2015. Impacts With elections delayed to late 2016, further corruption probes of Thai opposition figures are likely. Indonesia's anti-corruption commission faces a battle to protect its autonomy, and may see its capacity hindered. The Philippines' presidential transition in mid-2016 will determine the ongoing success of the current anti-corruption drive. Malaysia's anti-corruption commission may gain institutional strength through the '1MDB' investigation. Deepening ASEAN economic integration could increase cross-border and domestic opportunities for political corruption.


Subject The outlook for an ASEAN e-commerce boom. Significance A February study commissioned by the ASEAN Business Forum forecasts that electronic retailing in South-east Asia's six more advanced economies could grow by 25% annually up to 2017, driven by rising incomes, improving technology and a services boom. Expected to be worth at least 60 billion dollars once it matures (beyond 2017), the e-commerce market will help expand regional trade connections as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is enacted from late 2015. Impacts Rising incomes, growing business connectivity and investment in retail portals will spur online sales. Services will be targeted at younger, technology-aware consumers who prefer mobile telephones over computers. Market potential may not be realised without investment in supporting services, including payment systems.


Subject Outlook for the ASEAN Economic Community. Significance Just four months in, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) integration is proving difficult. Recognising the slow progress, ASEAN ministers meeting in Vientiane earlier this month agreed on a delayed 2025 timetable for integrating financial services. The action plan aims to free more funding for national development by liberalising equity, bond and insurance markets and allowing banks to operate on a regional basis, but it has had only cautious backing. Impacts ASEAN integration will increase regional demand for insurance cover. Resolving ASEAN's development gaps needs investment in infrastructure, education and administration systems. Non-tariff barriers and external preferential trade deals will challenge the AEC's coherence for the foreseeable future.


Subject Online radicalisation. Significance On May 25, the Indonesian parliament unanimously passed stringent anti-terrorism laws allowing the military to be directly involved in counterterrorism operations. The vote followed a string of suicide bombings attributed to local jihadist networks that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Jakarta joins other South-east Asian governments -- notably those of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore -- in attempting to counter a new push in the region by IS, as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in the region, a by-product of increased Saudi influence, will likely give IS new issues to exploit. The Rohingya crisis gives IS a regional boost, especially in terms of operations in Myanmar and more likely in Yangon than Rakhine State. Non-ideological, low-wage overseas workers, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia, are most susceptible to IS.


Subject Gender inequality, business and economic growth as ASEAN integrates economically. Significance South-east Asian economic ministers agreed at a summit earlier this month in Manila to work towards a more inclusive role for women in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Impacts Institutional changes will be needed for women to realise their full economic potential. Small and medium-sized businesses owned by women will struggle to access financing. Reform of parental leave and childcare would help retain vital skills in the workplace.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Mohamad Hanapi Bin Mohamad

<p>The development of ASEAN towards the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015 has brought into sharp focus on the issue of economic and financial integration in the region. The ASEAN region has been the largest recipient of FDI, relative to GDP in Asia Pacific. Between 1952 and 2012, Singapore accounts for more than half of total FDI to the whole region. Thailand ranks the second with a 13 percent share, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines which account between 13 to 8 percent.  Foreign direct investment into ASEAN recovered from the world economic crisis and regained its 2007 level of USD 76 thousand million in 2010. ASEAN Dialogue Partners comprising EU, USA and Japan accounted USD 64 thousand million, while the share of Intra-ASEAN in this total was 16% which indicates the progress of ASEAN integration. Theories of economic integration and market liberalization have been used to explain the role of foreign direct investment in developing countries. This paper aims to examine ASEAN’s financial integration prospects. ASEAN integration could accelerate in the years ahead with enhancing financial infrastructure and reliable flexible policy frameworks. On the long term closer engagement among member countries could potentially increase real incomes and accelerate real convergence.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Hakim

The relationship of the financial deepening to the interest rate has become an important study for the Southeast Asia countries, especially preparation forentering the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. This study will explore the effect of interest rates on deposits and credit to the financial deepening in ASEAN 5. By using VECM showed that Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore possessed a similar pattern where lending rates negatively affect financial deepening, while the deposit rate positive effect. In contrast to Malaysia and Thailand, deposit rates had a negative impact on financial depth, while the loan interest rate was positive. Meanwhile, using panel data for the ASEAN 5 showed that the effect of interest rates on loans to the depth of the financial sector is negative, whereas the effect of deposit rate was positive


2021 ◽  
Vol 316 ◽  
pp. 01019
Author(s):  
Imamudin Yuliadi ◽  
Wahdi Salasi April Yudhi

This study aims to analyze the factors determining economic growth in ASEAN countries, which are the ASEAN economic community members as a potential center for world economic growth. The research method applied in this study was a panel data analysis model with a feasible generalized least square approach. The research period was from 2015 – 2019 in all ASEAN member countries: Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam, and the Philippines. Testing the data used the Chow and Hausman tests to determine the analysis method: fixed effect, random effect, or common effect. The results of panel data regression estimation with a feasible generalized least square approach uncovered that the variables of the number of the labor force, currency exchange rates, money supply (M1), exports, imports, Gini index, foreign debt, corruption perception index, financial literacy index, and foreign investment (PMA) significantly affected the economic growth of the ASEAN economic community, including develop agriculture sector. Meanwhile, the variables of domestic investment and financing credit did not affect the economic growth of the ASEAN economic community. The conclusion and recommendation from this study’s results are each ASEAN country’s efforts to encourage economic growth by utilizing its comparative advantages and strategic cooperation to create market opportunities and increase the economic efficiency of the ASEAN economic community.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-208
Author(s):  
Mita Adhisti

This study discusses how the free movement of skilled labor policy under the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) scenario enhances opportunities for labor mobility from low-skilled labor countries, what challenges will be faced, and how this policy impacts their economies. The implementation of the AEC’s free movement of skilled labor policy is projected to face challenges such as mismatched labor qualifications, fulfilling ASEAN commitment, time for implementation of ASEAN commitments, and controlling the flow of illegal migrant workers. However, ASEAN leaders already set some supporting policies to overcome challenges from this system by improving labor market information, encouraging language and skills training, managing government and public supports, expanding mutual recognition arrangements and enhancing social protection for migrant workers. If these supporting policies can be implemented, the AEC’s free movement of skilled labor policy will improve the quality of human resources in ASEAN, especially from lower-middle income countries including Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand. As the results, those six countries are expected to increase the high-skilled employment rates by 0.3 to 1.4 percent and the wage rates up to 10-20 percent in 2025. Thus, the projected increases in the employment and wage rates of ASEAN skilled labor will induce an expansion of the ASEAN economic growth to 7.1 percent in 2025.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document