Qatar will grow more assertive, but not hubristic
Significance The withdrawal came with neither notice nor any obvious precipitating event, and is ultimately more a piece of political showmanship than a decision rooted in fiscal calculation. This underscores the frenetic, changeable nature of Gulf politics. It also speaks to possible fragility at the core of OPEC. Impacts Doha will aggressively court inward investment and will do so increasingly on its own terms. Ratings agencies and investors may interpret this move as a sign of a bullish and reinvigorated government. The decision will not affect the ultimate settlement of the Gulf crisis, which will be resolved when Saudi Arabia and its allies choose. Doha will remain a predictable energy supplier, prizing its reputation as a reliable exporter that does not use trade as a political weapon.