Taliban dynamics obstruct way towards Afghan solution

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type

Significance However, a Taliban spokesman also denounced the meeting and its message. The movement has yet to respond to government appeals for talks, partly because several Taliban factions function autonomously with different agendas. The senior US commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, insists senior Taliban are quietly engaging in talks at the same time as fighting. Impacts Taliban divisions will persist due to contested leadership and rival external sponsors. Despondency at the impossibility of complete victory would favour those Taliban leaders inclined towards negotiations. With legislative elections expected in October and a presidential election next year, the armed forces may be neglected.

Hazara-Taliban clashes add new dimension to Afghan war

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Defence

Subject Increasing Hazara involvement in the Afghan conflict. Significance Taliban advances into districts on the southern fringes of the ethnic Hazara heartland have encountered resistance from local militias. Locals are demanding stronger self-defence forces. Iran's influence is rising as a sponsor of paramilitary forces. The clashes risk adding a new ethno-sectarian dimension to the conflict. Impacts President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani is unlikely to win many Hazara votes in next year’s presidential election. Competition among Hazara factions to organise informal armed forces is likely to intensify. Hazara politicians may find it increasingly difficult to avoid Iranian influence.

Poll stand-off will raise instability risks in Guinea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Protests have rocked the capital, Conakry, for the past few weeks. Since the country held its first competitive presidential election in 2010, all other polls have been subject to delays. Legislative elections eventually took place in 2013, but were disputed. Local polls last occurred in 2005. The country exists in a climate of deep political mistrust. Impacts Incomplete Ebola data raises the risk that new cases may go undetected, portending sporadic future outbreaks. However, the new US-backed African Centres for Disease Control fund will help international donors to be better prepared. Disruptions to output and investor aversion caused by Ebola are likely to slow economic growth to zero during 2015, but recover thereafter. If opposition parties opt to boycott the poll, further UN mediation may be necessary, possibly with France playing a leading role.

Jakarta will lead in South-east Asian counterterrorism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Militant Groups

Subject South-east Asian governments' fight against terrorism. Significance Militant attacks at the end of last month targeted a church and mosque in the southern Philippines. Last year, Indonesia and Malaysia engaged in extensive crackdowns on Islamist militant groups operating in South-east Asia. Indonesia will be on high alert ahead of April’s presidential and legislative elections. Impacts The formal creation of the Bangsamoro region in the Philippines will prompt further pushback by militants. Malaysia is unlikely to alter significantly its counterterrorism operations. Indonesia’s newly revised anti-terrorism legislation will increase the armed forces’ role in domestic security.

Risks could defy French presidency predictions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type

Significance Nearly one-third of the electorate is reportedly undecided as France approaches the first round of the presidential election on April 23. This, along with the risk of lower-than-normal voter turnout, could hurt the chances of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who remains the favourite to win the presidency -- if he can make it to the second round on May 7. Le Pen seems almost certain to advance, although her remarks risk a backlash in the second round. Impacts Le Pen and Macron would struggle most to follow a win with a victory in the June legislative elections. This could produce a governmental gridlock in which the new president would struggle to pass his or her agenda. Fillon, though unlikely to advance, would enjoy the support of his party and probably centrist deputies as well, easing his agenda.

Ecuador local elections signal Alianza Pais collapse

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Political Field ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Right ◽  
Initial Results ◽  
Real Test

Significance The elections were the first real test of the strength of President Lenin Moreno’s reformed Alianza Pais (AP), which has splintered since former President Rafael Correa left office in 2017. Initial results signal the collapse of the party as a national political force and the fragmentation of the political field. Impacts AP’s poor performance will encourage party legislators to defect as the presidential and legislative elections approach. The legislature will become more fragmented and Moreno will become more reliant on cross-party alliances to pass legislation. The right will be well placed to win the presidential election, though Correa and his supporters will mount a serious challenge.

Corruption findings will strain Nigerien government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Government

Subject Corruption in military procurement. Significance With the presidential election set to take place in December, the government is under fire over its lenient approach to corruption in military procurement -- at a time when Nigerien soldiers have been losing their lives in the struggle to combat jihadist armed groups. With 160 Nigerien soldiers killed in recent jihadist attacks, the theft of money that could have been used better to equip the armed forces is a hot issue, particularly as the alleged culprits have connections to the ruling PNDS Taraya party. This offers opponents a chance to mobilise public opinion against the government. Impacts The exposure of corruption damages the ruling party’s claim of a track record of effective public sector management. The government allows culprits to escape jail time if they repay stolen funds, which will alienate urban public opinion. France and the United States will not publicly criticise the government, a key ally.

Economic quick fix eyed ahead of South Korea polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

Subject South Korea's economy and economic policy in early 2016. Significance South Korea's economy grew more slowly in 2015 than in the previous five years. With legislative elections due in April, President Park Geun-hye's government faces judgment on its failure to return the economy to its long-term trend rate. Impacts Divisions in the opposition camp will prevent economic problems doing serious damage to the governing party in coming legislative elections. Any electoral impact is likelier to be seen further ahead, in 2017's presidential election. Geopolitical tension on the Korean peninsula is unlikely to damage South Korea's economy in the medium term.

Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 635-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Hibbs
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Objectively Measured ◽  
Foreign Wars

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

Colombian border violence will Venezuela worsen crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Organised Crime Groups

Significance The closure of border crossings since March 2020 has fuelled violent competition for control of lucrative informal crossings (trochas) and frontier towns. However, the Venezuelan military is ill-prepared to deal with the expanding presence of Colombia’s irregular armed groups. Recent incursions highlight weaknesses in the Venezuelan armed forces, which have suffered casualties. Impacts The penetration of organised crime groups into Venezuela’s disintegrating state and economy will continue to intensify. Organised criminal violence coupled with the violence of military operations will fuel displacement, COVID and civilian casualties. A speedy, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s political impasse is needed to preclude fusion with Colombia’s own protracted insurgency.

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