Tensions may surface over Kenya’s early oil production

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Pilot Scheme ◽  
Oil Revenue

Significance President Uhuru Kenyatta on June 3 inaugurated Kenya’s Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS), waving off the trucks on their journey from Turkana County to Mombasa. The launch follows a breakthrough agreement between Kenyatta and Turkana’s political leaders on an oil revenue-sharing formula after months of discord. Impacts The petroleum bill may now be passed, potentially boosting investor confidence ahead of Tullow’s final investment decision in 2019. Turkana political leaders may struggle to sell the deal to locals disappointed by the climb-down from a 10% share for local communities. Insecurity and poor transport infrastructure will prove further obstacles to oil production.

Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

South Sudanese oil production could remain low

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.

Poor regulation risks investment projects in Mexico

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Communities ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Energy Projects ◽  
Specific Regulation ◽  
Energy Reforms ◽  
Energy Reform ◽  
Community Conflicts

Subject Energy reforms and social conflicts. Significance Since energy reforms came into force in 2014, numerous contracts for hydrocarbons and power projects have been awarded in public tenders. However, concerns over the viability of investments are growing due to a lack of regulation regarding projects’ social impacts. On February 19, El Economista reported that around 110 infrastructure projects are at risk due to conflicts with local communities. Of these, 54 are energy projects, and 31 are products of the energy reform. Other economic activities that often lead to community conflicts include mining, tourism and transport infrastructure. Impacts With companies operating in a liberalised and more transparent environment, community conflicts will be more evident than before. In the absence of specific regulation, companies may improve dialogue with communities to mitigate potential for social conflict. Major disputes could lead to national and international problems, especially in cases involving foreign-owned companies.

Lifecycle-oriented framing of value at the front end of infrastructure projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miia Maarit Martinsuo ◽  
Lauri Vuorinen ◽  
Catherine Killen
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Financing Decisions ◽  
Front End ◽  
Investment Decision Making

Purpose Infrastructure projects are expected to deliver value to their stakeholders long after completion. Project value is multi-dimensional and subjective and evolves over the project lifecycle. How stakeholders frame the expected value is central to the public debate about proposed infrastructure projects and influences the financing decisions; however, this framing is inadequately understood. The purpose of this paper is to develop new knowledge for shaping infrastructure projects by identifying the ways in which stakeholders frame project value at the project front end. Design/methodology/approach Three transport infrastructure projects are compared in a qualitative, document-based study. The authors map the dimensions of value at the project front end and identify stakeholders’ approaches to lifecycle-oriented framing of value. Findings Financial, social and comparative values are dominant in the project front end. The authors frame value into positive and negative dimensions and identify four themes in the lifecycle-oriented framing of value, including uncertainties, timing of cost and benefit realization, project relations and external sponsorship. Research limitations/implications The research is limited through the focus on transport infrastructure projects and project front end only, the selection of cases from a single country and the use of document-based data. The systematic analysis approach has yielded novel analytical frameworks that will be useful for further research. Practical implications This study identifies value dimensions that are specific to transport infrastructure projects and proposes a framework to assist stakeholders and project managers to better assess and negotiate value when designing their projects. Originality/value Regional and comparative values are revealed as novel aspects of value specific to infrastructure projects. The alternative lifecycle-oriented frames offer a new way to understand and structure the co-creation of value and shape negotiation for investment decisions in the project. A portfolio perspective to investment decision making is proposed.

Uganda energy moves pose risks for the president

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
Energy Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Energy Fund ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Imf

Subject Political economy of energy in Uganda. Significance After 20 years of growth averaging 8% per annum, the Ugandan economy has begun to falter. In July, the IMF reported that 2016-17 growth had slowed to 3.9%. Both the IMF and Museveni agree that further investment in infrastructure -- especially energy infrastructure -- will help to alleviate the current pressures. However, recent experience suggests that such investments are not without risks. Impacts Controversies related to the Bujagali dam will raise concerns over the viability of other hydro-electric projects. The depletion of the national ‘Energy Fund’ will reduce the government’s ability to mitigate the impact of shocks in the sector. Reduced investor confidence will undermine Uganda’s attempts to kickstart oil production.

Analytical redefinition of DOL and managerial investment decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 734-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoram Kroll ◽  
David Yechiam Aharon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Production Level ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Theoretical Formulation ◽  
Optimal Production ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operating Leverage ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop alternative analytical measures for the degree of operating leverage (DOL) that reflect the impact of uncertain demand shocks in the product's market on optimal production levels, sales and profits of the firm. Design/methodology/approach – The elasticity measures are constructed according to a theoretical formulation of optimal production level that corresponds to demand shocks for given predetermined levels of fixed cost. Findings – The paper suggests two main findings. First, the analytical marginal DOL is at least twice the traditional DOL depending on the structure of the shock, the production function and demand's elasticity. The traditional DOL is equal to the measure only when large-scale negative demand prompts the firm to abandon production. Second, the paper also provides an analytical measure of DOL in terms of elasticity of profit to sales rather than to production level. Both theoretically and empirically elasticity of profit to sales can be better measured and better reflects risk. Research limitations/implications – This paper should be extended to encompass multiple shocks on demand and supply while investigating the empirical multi variants distribution of the shocks. Practical implications – The model can be used by managers who are well informed about the fixed and variable costs of their firm. The model determines the mean profit- risk trade off which is an important factor in all investment decision problems. Originality/value – Surprisingly and according to the best knowledge, this paper is the first attempt in the literature for alternative analytical DOLs’ formulations that is coherent with basic economic theories of optimal production level under risk.

Kenneth Fisher’s heuristics

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-148
Author(s):  
Carlo Massironi ◽  
Giusy Chesini
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Theory Of Knowledge ◽  
Constructivist Theory ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Radical Constructivist

Purpose The authors are interested in building descriptive – real life – models of successful investors’ investment reasoning and decision-making. Models designed to be useful for trying to replicate and evolve their reasoning and decision-making. The purpose of this paper, a case study, is to take the substantial material – on innovating the investing tools – published in four books (2006/2012, 2010, 2011, 2015) by a US stock investor named Kenneth Fisher (CEO of Fisher Investments, Woodside, California) and sketch Fisher’s investment innovating reasoning model. Design/methodology/approach To sketch Fisher’s investment innovating reasoning model, the authors used the Radical constructivist theory of knowledge, a framework for analyzing human action and reasoning called Symbolic interactionism and a qualitative analytic technique called Conceptual analysis. The authors have done qualitative research applied to the study of investment decision-making of a single professional investor. Findings In the paper, the authors analyzed and described the heuristics used by Fisher to build subsequent generations of investing tools (called by Fisher “Capital Markets Technology”) to try to make better forecasts to beat the stock market. The authors were interested in studying the evolutive dimensions of the tools to make forecasts of a successful investor: the “how to build it” and “how to evolve it” dimension. Originality/value The paper offers an account of Kenneth Fisher’s framework to reason the innovation of investing tools. The authors believe that this paper could be of interest to professional money managers and to all those who are involved in the study and development of the tools of investing. This work is also an example of the use of the Radical constructivist theory of knowledge, the Symbolic interactionist framework and the Conceptual analysis to build descriptive models of investment reasoning of individual investors, models designed to enable the reproduction/approximation of the conceptual operations of the investor.

Proposed Mexican financial legislation sparks concerns

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Legal Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Potential Impact

Significance The move, however, has proven controversial, generating a backlash over its potential impact on commercial banks and the central bank (Banxico), which sees it as a threat to its autonomy. The proposals come amid an unusual surge in remittances flowing into the country. Impacts Any legal change that is seen as affecting Banxico’s autonomy would damage investor confidence significantly. AMLO may stop legislation changes if they cause a depreciation of the peso. Mexico’s economy looks set to become far more reliant on remittance income than it has been in past years.

Mobile investment technology adoption among investors

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Fan
Keyword(s):  
Technology Adoption ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovations ◽  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Mobile Financial Services ◽  
Money Transfers

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine investors' internal characteristics, including investment literacy, risk tolerance and familiarity with mobile financial services, as antecedents of mobile investment technology adoption among American investors.Design/methodology/approachUsing the 2018 National Financial Capability Study and its supplemental Investor Survey, this study examined antecedents, including investors' internal characteristics, in relation to mobile investment technology adoption. Nested logistic regression analyses were performed for adopting mobile apps for investment decisions and for investment trading.FindingsThis study found that objective and subjective investment knowledge, experience using mobile banking for payments and money transfers, and certain ownerships of investment vehicles (such as whole-life insurance policies and ETFs) were significant determinants of mobile investment decision-making. On the other hand, subjective investment literacy, risk tolerance, familiarity with mobile financial services, and portfolio value, as well as certain types of investment vehicles were significantly associated with mobile investment trading.Originality/valueThis study is among the first to examine investors' investment literacy, risk tolerance and familiarity with mobile financial services as investors' internal characteristics in relation to mobile investment technology adoption. The diffusion of innovations theory and related concepts provide theoretical support for this study. The findings provide new insights into mobile investing as an emerging FinTech subject and provide implications for practitioners and FinTech developers, as well as contribute to the literature of mobile investment service adoption among retail investors.

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