Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

South Sudanese oil production could remain low

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.

Lasso oil plans will stoke tensions in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign State ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Oil Company

Significance He aims to increase incentives for private firms and foreign state-owned enterprises to operate in Ecuador, while reducing the role of national oil company Petroecuador. The reforms, if implemented, may have their intended effect on oil production but they will stoke political tensions and will be challenged by indigenous and environmental movements. Impacts Plans to boost oil production will reassure international investors about the government’s ability to service foreign debt obligations. Global campaigns against funding oil investment might limit international investment in the oil sector to some degree. Increased oil production and exports will alleviate balance of payments constraints on economic growth.

Baghdad and Erbil policy moves may deter oil investors

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Injection ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform

Significance Although some important hydrocarbons projects have seen progress, both Baghdad and Erbil have made fresh moves seen as prejudicial by oil sector investors. Uncertainty continues over the authorities’ commitment to contracts, while the Kurdistan region has yet again fallen behind on payments to oil firms. Impacts Increased oil production as OPEC+ limits ease will make progress on associated gas capture and water injection more urgent. A dire electricity situation may pose a threat to political stability. Uncertainties over the upcoming elections in October and poor prospects for bureaucratic reform may further deter investment.

Oil sector damage will slow Yemen's recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Oil And Gas Fields ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Post War ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Gas Fields

Subject Impact of conflict on Yemen's oil and gas sector. Significance Yemen's oil sector has been in serious decline for years due to sabotage, field depletion and underinvestment, although it has remained the mainstay of government finances. Oil and gas fields and facilities are key assets in contention in the current conflict, even though it has halted most production and scared away many foreign operators. Yemen has around 3 billion barrels of oil reserves and 17 trillion cubic feet of gas. Oil revenues are critical to helping address the poverty that underlies much of the country's instability. Impacts Yemen supplies 3% of global LNG, and the loss of this may boost spot prices. Reduced oil revenue will make post-war Yemen even more dependent on aid. Jihadists could capture oil fields and finance themselves through local sales.

Divergent goals will rock Saudi-Egyptian relations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Gulf War ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Regional Order

Significance The oil shipments were part of a five-year deal that Saudi would provide Egypt with 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products per month, but these were stopped in early October amid a row over Egypt's position towards Syria. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Egypt have served as a bedrock of stability in the Middle East for much of the period since the second Gulf War (1990-91), but this subset of the regional order now appears in jeopardy. Impacts If Riyadh withholds investments or future assistance, the Egyptian economy may deteriorate even further. Should Egypt's economic crisis deepen, its political stability outlook would look uncertain at best and unsustainable at worst. This crisis compounds the Kingdom's recent regional setbacks, as the Syrian and Yemeni wars slide towards unfavourable outcomes for Riyadh.

South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.

Tensions may surface over Kenya’s early oil production

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Pilot Scheme ◽  
Oil Revenue

Significance President Uhuru Kenyatta on June 3 inaugurated Kenya’s Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS), waving off the trucks on their journey from Turkana County to Mombasa. The launch follows a breakthrough agreement between Kenyatta and Turkana’s political leaders on an oil revenue-sharing formula after months of discord. Impacts The petroleum bill may now be passed, potentially boosting investor confidence ahead of Tullow’s final investment decision in 2019. Turkana political leaders may struggle to sell the deal to locals disappointed by the climb-down from a 10% share for local communities. Insecurity and poor transport infrastructure will prove further obstacles to oil production.

Rising oil prices will bolster Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Environmental Discourse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yasuni National Park ◽  
Fiscal Conditions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Military Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Budget Crisis ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.

Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Slight Rise

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document