Problems lie ahead as economy softens in Uruguay

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Political ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Poor Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance The government is under increasing pressure over growing crime concerns and dissatisfaction with the economic situation, but deteriorating fiscal accounts limit its options. The worsening image of President Tabare Vazquez and the other two leaders of the governing Frente Amplio (FA) points to an unfavourable outlook for the FA coming into the 2019 general elections. Impacts Rising unemployment may increase mounting crime and security fears. The stubborn fiscal deficit and heavy tax burden will complicate policy-making for this government and its successor. Poor growth prospects in Argentina and Brazil will dim the outlook for Uruguay’s trade and tourism.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

Argentine debt success does not eliminate doubts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
The Government ◽  
Do So

Subject Economic policy-making. Significance The government in April successfully ended the long-running debt default through an agreement with the most intransigent holdout creditors and a bond issue worth 16.5 billion dollars, the largest in Argentina's history. Despite this step, doubts remain concerning the government's ability to reduce the huge fiscal deficit and even its willingness to do so, as renewed access to lending will allow it to ease fiscal adjustment, reducing the high political cost involved. Impacts There is a risk that, with the return of global lending, the government will choose to postpone fiscal adjustment. In the absence of a clear stabilisation plan, efforts to slow inflation will take time. If the economy does not rebound in coming months, the government's performance in October 2017 mid-term elections will be undermined.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

Oman's fiscal woes could endanger the currency peg

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Patronage System ◽  
Local Firms

Subject Oman's economic outlook. Significance Oman faces a massive fiscal deficit in 2016, which government policies are unable to address. The budgetary shortfall in the first seven months of 2016 reached 4 billion Omani riyals (10 billion dollars), outstripping the projected full-year deficit of 3.3 billion riyals. Low oil prices have pushed down revenue, while the government struggles to control spending. Impacts A requirement to employ more Omanis will reduce the competitiveness of local firms. Popular resentment against expatriate workers (who constitute 40% of the population) is likely to rise. The government may curb some elite corruption and excess consumption, but the patronage system will remain entrenched. While 75-year-old Sultan Qaboos is popular, his successor will face difficult economic decisions, increasing the chances of serious unrest.

IMF deal offers mixed Ghana economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Pressures ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana economic outlook. Significance The government has presented a revised 2015 budget that lowers the growth target from 3.9% to 3.5%. The fiscal deficit target has been widened from 6.5% of GDP to 7.3%. The downward revisions underline the economy's structural constraints, which the IMF financial bailout deal will not overcome. Despite a promising start on fiscal consolidation, the economy continues to be plagued by the effects of commodity price dependence. Impacts The recent reduction in fuel and utility subsidies has been made easier given lower oil and product prices. However, social pressures will build around the 2016 election, potentially spurring policy reversals. Negotiations moderating spending in next year's budget will be tougher, especially on wages.

Military moves will not offset Uruguay economic gloom

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Military Establishment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Rights Issue ◽  
The Military

Subject Military moves and economic gloom. Significance The government has faced a political crisis within the military establishment, connected to an honour tribunal related to crimes committed during the 1973-85 dictatorship. President Tabare Vazquez was forced to dismiss seven army generals in the course of a month. The issue coincided with troubling economic data and deteriorating public accounts that represent a threat for Uruguay’s investment-grade rating, at a time when the governing Frente Amplio (FA) appears to be on the back foot in advance of the October general elections. Impacts The human rights issue united the FA but will have limited electoral traction amid more immediate economic concerns. The fiscal deficit will not allow for stimulus spending. An opposition alliance looks likely to be able to unseat the FA in October, at the very least taking its congressional majority.

Long- and short-term threats undermine Taiwan economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Period Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The (gloomy) economic outlook for Taiwan. Significance Taiwan's exports fell 8.8% year-on-year during the January-August period, data showed on September 7. Exports, which equal around 60% of GDP, have now fallen for seven consecutive months. GDP growth plummeted to 0.52% in the second quarter of 2015, from 3.84% in the first. The government forecasts 1.56% growth for the calendar year 2015, the lowest since 2010. Impacts The pessimistic export outlook will dampen Taiwan's stock market performance, especially for manufacturing companies. Downward pressure on wages will restrain people's propensity to consume, dragging down growth prospects for private consumption. Economic sluggishness will put the ruling party, the Kuomintang, at a disadvantage in January's presidential election.

Honduras growth prospects are positive despite risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Reform ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government

Subject Honduras economy update. Significance Preliminary data suggest the Honduran economy performed strongly last year, despite political uncertainty and continuing high levels of violence. Such risks nevertheless look likely to dampen the growth outlook for 2018. Impacts The government is unlikely to be able to get another major reform through the legislature. Increased spending will widen the fiscal deficit, though it will remain below target. The government will face increasing pressure to reduce poverty and tackle corruption, and will struggle with both.

Contagion concerns worsen Uruguay's economic outlook

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance The Argentine financial crisis and economic downturn are affecting Uruguay at a time when its economy is cooling while popular discontent is rising over the difficulty of finding employment and maintaining purchasing power, as well as increased crime concerns. President Tabare Vazquez’s approval continues to fall. The governing Frente Amplio (FA)’s chances of retaining power after the October 2019 elections are declining. Impacts Difficulties in Uruguay’s two largest neighbours will weigh heavily on the economy in coming months. The FA is likely to lose power in 2019 after 15 years in the presidency. The substantial fiscal deficit gives the government no option to try to boost growth and consumption through stimulus.

Mexico murder rates set to rise pre-election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
War On Drugs ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Arena ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Security pre-election in Mexico. Significance The former mayor of Colipa, Veracruz, Victor Molina Dorantes, was shot dead on January 9. His killing follows that of Miguel Angel Licona -- former mayor of Mixquiahuala, Hidalgo -- on January 3. Over 100 former, established or newly elected mayors have been murdered since Mexico launched its 'war on drugs' in 2006, but a recent uptick has seen more than a dozen such killings in the last few months. In total, more than 23,000 murders occurred in 2017, making it Mexico’s bloodiest year on record. Nevertheless, with general elections fast approaching, the government shows no sign of changing tack on its failed security policies, enacting a controversial security law that looks set to cement the military's role in policing. Impacts Newly appointed Interior Minister Alfonso Navarrete will not significantly alter the security policies of his predecessor. The Internal Security Law is more likely to exacerbate violence than bring any meaningful security improvements. If approved by the Supreme Court, the law will reposition the military in the political arena, further disrupting civil-military balances.

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