Military moves will not offset Uruguay economic gloom

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Military Establishment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Rights Issue ◽  
The Military

Subject Military moves and economic gloom. Significance The government has faced a political crisis within the military establishment, connected to an honour tribunal related to crimes committed during the 1973-85 dictatorship. President Tabare Vazquez was forced to dismiss seven army generals in the course of a month. The issue coincided with troubling economic data and deteriorating public accounts that represent a threat for Uruguay’s investment-grade rating, at a time when the governing Frente Amplio (FA) appears to be on the back foot in advance of the October general elections. Impacts The human rights issue united the FA but will have limited electoral traction amid more immediate economic concerns. The fiscal deficit will not allow for stimulus spending. An opposition alliance looks likely to be able to unseat the FA in October, at the very least taking its congressional majority.

scholarly journals The Limits of Possibilities of Religious Politics: The Case of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik in Pakistani Punjab

2021 ◽  
pp. 003802292110510
Author(s):  
Hassan Javid
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Public Life ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Military Establishment ◽  
Religious Parties ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
The Military

Historically, despite the tremendous influence exerted by Islam on public life, religious parties and organisations have historically failed to do well at the ballot box, receiving an average of only 6% of votes cast in elections since the 1980s. Focusing on the case of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a new Barelvi political party and social movement that has campaigned on the emotive issue of blasphemy since being formed in 2015, this article argues that the clientelistic, patronage-based nature of democratic politics in Punjab, coupled with factionalism and competition within the religious right, continues to play a role in limiting the electoral prospects of religious parties. Nonetheless, as was seen in the General Elections of 2018 in which the TLP outperformed expectations, there are particular circumstances in which the religious parties are able to make electoral breakthroughs. While the TLP was able to make effective use of populist rhetoric to garner some genuine support for itself, this article argues that the organisations sustained campaign of protests over the issue of blasphemy fed into broader efforts by the military establishment and opposition political parties to destabilise and weaken the government of the PML-N prior to the 2018 elections.

Economic recovery may prove vulnerable in Uruguay

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance President Tabare Vazquez’s government will face a congressional debate over the 2018-20 budget marked by the high fiscal deficit. Although ratings agencies are showing confidence by renewing Uruguay’s investment grade rating, this will only be maintained if an austere budget is approved -- at a time when the government has lost its lower house majority. Impacts The government faces unsatisfied demands from various sectors which cannot readily be addressed without increased investment and spending. This in turn would undermine the fiscal position, which has been improved by an adjustment that still did not resolve underlying issues. Some improvement in growth will give the government a degree of breathing space.

Dominican power struggles will not impact policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Subject Dominican Republic election outlook. Significance The Dominican Republic on October 6 held primary elections to select candidates for all levels of government, including the presidency, ahead of general elections in May next year. In the ruling Partido de la Liberacion Dominicana (Dominican Liberation Party, PLD), Gonzalo Castillo -- backed by current President Danilo Medina -- defeated former President Leonel Fernandez by just 1.4 percentage points (pp). Fernandez refused to recognise the result, alleging fraud before abandoning the party to run as a candidate for a grouping of smaller parties. The primaries of the opposition Partido Revolucionario Moderno (Modern Revolutionary Party, PRM) were less eventful, with former presidential hopeful Luis Abinader taking 74% of the vote. Impacts Despite the political crisis, the Dominican Republic will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the Western Hemisphere. Pressure to expand social spending will intensify in the run-up to the elections as the government tries to support its preferred candidate. Dominican political instability could exacerbate tensions at the border with Haiti -- a country severely affected by social unrest. The PLD may lose its majority in Congress and the Senate.

Problems lie ahead as economy softens in Uruguay

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Political ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Poor Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance The government is under increasing pressure over growing crime concerns and dissatisfaction with the economic situation, but deteriorating fiscal accounts limit its options. The worsening image of President Tabare Vazquez and the other two leaders of the governing Frente Amplio (FA) points to an unfavourable outlook for the FA coming into the 2019 general elections. Impacts Rising unemployment may increase mounting crime and security fears. The stubborn fiscal deficit and heavy tax burden will complicate policy-making for this government and its successor. Poor growth prospects in Argentina and Brazil will dim the outlook for Uruguay’s trade and tourism.

Mexico murder rates set to rise pre-election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
War On Drugs ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Arena ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Security pre-election in Mexico. Significance The former mayor of Colipa, Veracruz, Victor Molina Dorantes, was shot dead on January 9. His killing follows that of Miguel Angel Licona -- former mayor of Mixquiahuala, Hidalgo -- on January 3. Over 100 former, established or newly elected mayors have been murdered since Mexico launched its 'war on drugs' in 2006, but a recent uptick has seen more than a dozen such killings in the last few months. In total, more than 23,000 murders occurred in 2017, making it Mexico’s bloodiest year on record. Nevertheless, with general elections fast approaching, the government shows no sign of changing tack on its failed security policies, enacting a controversial security law that looks set to cement the military's role in policing. Impacts Newly appointed Interior Minister Alfonso Navarrete will not significantly alter the security policies of his predecessor. The Internal Security Law is more likely to exacerbate violence than bring any meaningful security improvements. If approved by the Supreme Court, the law will reposition the military in the political arena, further disrupting civil-military balances.

The concept of trust in disasters: the Slovenian experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-615
Author(s):  
Marjan Malesic
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of public trust in disaster response actors, i.e. the government, civilian disaster response institutions, the military, NGOs and the media. Design/methodology/approach The data source is the 2015–2016 Slovenian Public Opinion Survey, which used face-to-face interviews (computer-assisted personal interviewing software), and a standardised instrument (questionnaire). A two-stage probability sampling design with stratification at the first stage was applied. The first stage involved a probability proportional to size selection of 150 small areas (statistical areas), where the size measurement was a the number of adult persons in the Central Population Register. The second stage involved the simple random sampling of 12 persons from each of the 150 primary sampling units. A total of 1,024 adult residents participated in the survey. Findings The findings suggest that trust in the government under normal situations is low; however, it becomes slightly higher during disaster conditions. Civilian disaster response institutions (especially firemen and civil protection), the military and NGOs (humanitarian and other volunteer organisations) are highly trusted before and during disasters. Trust in the authorities and media to inform the public in a timely and comprehensive manner about the disaster is also relatively high. Research limitations/implications Perhaps in another period of research, disaster-related experiences of the population might be different, which could certainly change the survey results about trust. Nevertheless, the main finding that low pre-disaster trust can be recovered during a disaster by adequate performance of the institution is not jeopardised. Originality/value The survey results are original.

Smuggling will weigh on Tunisian economy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Border Towns ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance Essid has been working to form a new coalition government since general elections in late December. The new unity government will face tremendous pressure to jumpstart the economy, ensure political stability, and counter growing security threats. One major challenge -- cross-border smuggling -- poses a particularly serious threat to the new government. Smuggling costs the government some 615 million dollars per year, representing nearly 5% of total tax revenues, and undermines legitimate trade, further damaging growth. Impacts If the government fails to address smuggling, it will continue to lose critical revenue. Yet cracking down on smuggling will probably meet with considerable opposition -- particularly in rural areas and border towns. The new government's lack of a decisive mandate will impede reforms.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
General Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Major General

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

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