Oman's fiscal woes could endanger the currency peg

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Patronage System ◽  
Local Firms

Subject Oman's economic outlook. Significance Oman faces a massive fiscal deficit in 2016, which government policies are unable to address. The budgetary shortfall in the first seven months of 2016 reached 4 billion Omani riyals (10 billion dollars), outstripping the projected full-year deficit of 3.3 billion riyals. Low oil prices have pushed down revenue, while the government struggles to control spending. Impacts A requirement to employ more Omanis will reduce the competitiveness of local firms. Popular resentment against expatriate workers (who constitute 40% of the population) is likely to rise. The government may curb some elite corruption and excess consumption, but the patronage system will remain entrenched. While 75-year-old Sultan Qaboos is popular, his successor will face difficult economic decisions, increasing the chances of serious unrest.

Trinidad and Tobago economy improves despite concerns

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Partnerships ◽  
Terrorism Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.

Cabinet confirmation is a respite for Peru's Castillo

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The vote of confidence will provide some leeway to the embattled Castillo presidency. Although critical of government policies, centrist and centre-right parties feared that a ‘no’ vote would add to problems of economic and political instability and facilitate an eventual dissolution of Congress by the executive. Impacts The government will threaten a fresh vote of confidence to counteract renewed congressional opposition. Some cabinet changes are already in prospect. Plans to reform the constitution will be placed on the back burner for the time being. The government will push ahead with tax increases in order to lower the fiscal deficit.

IMF deal offers mixed Ghana economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Pressures ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana economic outlook. Significance The government has presented a revised 2015 budget that lowers the growth target from 3.9% to 3.5%. The fiscal deficit target has been widened from 6.5% of GDP to 7.3%. The downward revisions underline the economy's structural constraints, which the IMF financial bailout deal will not overcome. Despite a promising start on fiscal consolidation, the economy continues to be plagued by the effects of commodity price dependence. Impacts The recent reduction in fuel and utility subsidies has been made easier given lower oil and product prices. However, social pressures will build around the 2016 election, potentially spurring policy reversals. Negotiations moderating spending in next year's budget will be tougher, especially on wages.

Underlying weakness will hold back Moroccan economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Account ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Energy Subsidy

Subject Economic outlook Significance The fall in oil prices has brought considerable benefits to Morocco's external account, as the country is heavily dependent on imported energy. However, its overall economic performance will be held back by fluctuations in agricultural output, the weakness of the European market, corruption and the deficiencies of the educational system. Impacts The current account deficit will fall below 1 billion dollars in 2016, according to the IMF, compared with almost 10 billion in 2012. Low oil prices have helped the government push through energy subsidy reforms, but pension reform will meet stiff resistance. The income from tourism and remittances will struggle to recover owing to euro-area weakness. Reform to the education system -- an essential element in boosting economic performance -- will be a thorny issue.

Problems lie ahead as economy softens in Uruguay

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Political ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Poor Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance The government is under increasing pressure over growing crime concerns and dissatisfaction with the economic situation, but deteriorating fiscal accounts limit its options. The worsening image of President Tabare Vazquez and the other two leaders of the governing Frente Amplio (FA) points to an unfavourable outlook for the FA coming into the 2019 general elections. Impacts Rising unemployment may increase mounting crime and security fears. The stubborn fiscal deficit and heavy tax burden will complicate policy-making for this government and its successor. Poor growth prospects in Argentina and Brazil will dim the outlook for Uruguay’s trade and tourism.

Contagion concerns worsen Uruguay's economic outlook

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance The Argentine financial crisis and economic downturn are affecting Uruguay at a time when its economy is cooling while popular discontent is rising over the difficulty of finding employment and maintaining purchasing power, as well as increased crime concerns. President Tabare Vazquez’s approval continues to fall. The governing Frente Amplio (FA)’s chances of retaining power after the October 2019 elections are declining. Impacts Difficulties in Uruguay’s two largest neighbours will weigh heavily on the economy in coming months. The FA is likely to lose power in 2019 after 15 years in the presidency. The substantial fiscal deficit gives the government no option to try to boost growth and consumption through stimulus.

scholarly journals An analysis of Indonesian government policies against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Roziqin ◽  
Syasya Y.F. Mas’udi ◽  
Iradhad T. Sihidi
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Narrative Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
The Government

PurposeCOVID-19 cases in Indonesia continue to increase and spread. This article aims to analyse the Indonesian government policies as a response in dealing with COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThis article is a narrative analysis with the approach of a systematic literature review.FindingsThis article found that the Indonesian government responded slowly to the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of its spread in March 2020. The government then issued some policies such as physical distancing, large-scale social restriction (PSBB - Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar) and social safety net. These policies will only work if the society follows them. The society could be the key to success of those policies, either as the support or the obstacles.Practical implicationsThis policy analysis with literature review, conducted from March to July 2020 in Indonesia, provides experiences and knowledge in how to respond to the dynamic problems of public policy in dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, especially in the context of a developing country.Originality/valueThe novelty of the article lies in the unique policy response in a diverse society. It suggests that the policymakers should pay more attention to the society’s characteristics as well as the mitigation system as a preventive measure and risk management to make clear policy in the society.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Saudi subsidy reforms unlikely to spark major protests

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political impact of subsidy reform. Significance Saudi Arabia introduced its first major cut to energy subsidies in January, leading to a rise in petrol, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity prices. Further cuts will be necessary to avert a fiscal crisis -- but with cheap energy seen as a basic part of the social contract between the government and the population, such measures are expected to have wide-reaching political repercussions. Impacts A decision to reverse subsidy cuts in the face of protest would undercut government credibility and reduce the prospect of further reforms. Yet persisting with subsidy reforms could damage government legitimacy and political capital among the youth and lower classes. Successful reforms will improve the long-term economic outlook, and the succession prospects of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

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