Mexico murder rates set to rise pre-election

Subject Security pre-election in Mexico. Significance The former mayor of Colipa, Veracruz, Victor Molina Dorantes, was shot dead on January 9. His killing follows that of Miguel Angel Licona -- former mayor of Mixquiahuala, Hidalgo -- on January 3. Over 100 former, established or newly elected mayors have been murdered since Mexico launched its 'war on drugs' in 2006, but a recent uptick has seen more than a dozen such killings in the last few months. In total, more than 23,000 murders occurred in 2017, making it Mexico’s bloodiest year on record. Nevertheless, with general elections fast approaching, the government shows no sign of changing tack on its failed security policies, enacting a controversial security law that looks set to cement the military's role in policing. Impacts Newly appointed Interior Minister Alfonso Navarrete will not significantly alter the security policies of his predecessor. The Internal Security Law is more likely to exacerbate violence than bring any meaningful security improvements. If approved by the Supreme Court, the law will reposition the military in the political arena, further disrupting civil-military balances.

Significance The response underlines the military's continued internal security role but, given that the restive areas are home to large Rohingya populations, also highlights residual political sensitivity about the military's position and the importance of effective government-military relations. Impacts An immediate trigger for civil-military frictions could be a breakdown in peace negotiations with ethnic minority groups. The government will struggle to convince military leaders that wide concessions to armed ethnic groups are needed. Centralisation of power within the NLD will hamper junior civilian leaders gaining experience of working with the military. In time, the military's economic influence will be politically problematic for the NLD.


Subject Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces disqualification. Significance Amid the fallout from the ‘Panamagate’ scandal in 2016, the Supreme Court in April appointed a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to investigate accusations of tax fraud and money laundering against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. With the court now having examined the report of the JIT, pressure is rising on Sharif and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Impacts The government may struggle to respond to demands relating to the Trump administration's Afghan review. Pakistan under Khan would be neutral between Saudi Arabia and Iran; Sharif has leant towards the Saudis. India-Pakistan ties may deteriorate, with the military less keen on improving relations.


Author(s):  
Maduekwe, Vincent Chuks ◽  

The Supreme Court is final not because it is infallible; but it is infallible because it is final” – this status quo of the Supreme Court of Nigeria and its application in various electoral cases, especially in the just concluded 2019 general elections in Nigeria has aroused mixed feelings and raised questions on the credibility of the Nigerian Judiciary and its capability of enshrining sustainable democracy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, according to the report of the Kayode Eso Panel on Reform of the Judiciary, the mindset of an average Nigerian is that “the Nigerian Judiciary hardly redeems itself from the unfortunate image it acquired during the military interregnum when it was described as a judiciary in patent chaos, riddled with corrupt Judges and in need of urgent and radical reform”. This study which sought to explore the infallibility of the Supreme Court and sustainable democracy in Nigeria; the effect of the infallibility of the Supreme Court verdicts on sustainable democracy in Nigeria; and the effects of bribery and corruption of the Supreme Court Justices on sustainable democracy in Nigeria, is an exploratory research which employed qualitative method of research and adopted the Transitional Jurisprudence Model as propounded by Ruti Teitel (2015) to analyze these. The study found that the bribery and corruption of the Supreme Court Justices has significant effect on sustainable democracy in Nigeria; and that the infallibility of the Supreme Court verdicts have significant effect on sustainable democracy in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that there is need for the independence and accountability of the Judiciary with the other arms of the government in Nigeria.


Subject Military moves and economic gloom. Significance The government has faced a political crisis within the military establishment, connected to an honour tribunal related to crimes committed during the 1973-85 dictatorship. President Tabare Vazquez was forced to dismiss seven army generals in the course of a month. The issue coincided with troubling economic data and deteriorating public accounts that represent a threat for Uruguay’s investment-grade rating, at a time when the governing Frente Amplio (FA) appears to be on the back foot in advance of the October general elections. Impacts The human rights issue united the FA but will have limited electoral traction amid more immediate economic concerns. The fiscal deficit will not allow for stimulus spending. An opposition alliance looks likely to be able to unseat the FA in October, at the very least taking its congressional majority.


Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance The government is under increasing pressure over growing crime concerns and dissatisfaction with the economic situation, but deteriorating fiscal accounts limit its options. The worsening image of President Tabare Vazquez and the other two leaders of the governing Frente Amplio (FA) points to an unfavourable outlook for the FA coming into the 2019 general elections. Impacts Rising unemployment may increase mounting crime and security fears. The stubborn fiscal deficit and heavy tax burden will complicate policy-making for this government and its successor. Poor growth prospects in Argentina and Brazil will dim the outlook for Uruguay’s trade and tourism.


2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 561-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuty Raihanah Mostarom

There is a common perception that Muslim religious leaders (ulama) in Singapore do not play any political role for the local Muslim community. Due to the seemingly close relationship between the government and grassroots Muslim organisations it is unsurprising that many presume that the activities of organisations such as the Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS) and the Singapore Islamic Scholars and Religious Teachers Association (PERGAS) are closely monitored by the government. As a result of this environment, the ulama in Singapore do not enter into the political arena. This article argues that the very act of keeping religion out of formal political life in Singapore is a conscious position taken by the local ulama and that in itself is a form of politics. Choosing not to do something is a political choice.


Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


Author(s):  
Y. S. Kudryashova

During the government of AK Party army leaders underprivileged to act as an exclusive guarantor preserving a secular regime in the country. The political balance between Secular and Islamite elites was essentially removed after Erdogan was elected Turkish President. Consistently toughening authoritarian regime of a ruling party deeply accounts for a military coup attempt and earlier periodically occurred disturbance especially among the young. The methods of a coup showed the profundity of a split and the lack of cohesion in Turkish armed forces. Erdogan made the best use of a coup attempt’s opportunities to concentrate all power in his hands and to consolidate a present regime. The mass support of the population during a coup attempt ensured opportunities for a fundamental reorganization of a political system. Revamped Constitution at most increases political powers of the President.


2021 ◽  
pp. 003802292110510
Author(s):  
Hassan Javid

Historically, despite the tremendous influence exerted by Islam on public life, religious parties and organisations have historically failed to do well at the ballot box, receiving an average of only 6% of votes cast in elections since the 1980s. Focusing on the case of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a new Barelvi political party and social movement that has campaigned on the emotive issue of blasphemy since being formed in 2015, this article argues that the clientelistic, patronage-based nature of democratic politics in Punjab, coupled with factionalism and competition within the religious right, continues to play a role in limiting the electoral prospects of religious parties. Nonetheless, as was seen in the General Elections of 2018 in which the TLP outperformed expectations, there are particular circumstances in which the religious parties are able to make electoral breakthroughs. While the TLP was able to make effective use of populist rhetoric to garner some genuine support for itself, this article argues that the organisations sustained campaign of protests over the issue of blasphemy fed into broader efforts by the military establishment and opposition political parties to destabilise and weaken the government of the PML-N prior to the 2018 elections.


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