South African investment climate faces further hurdles

Subject South African competition legislation concerns. Significance Draft amendments to South Africa’s 20-year-old competition legislation have been tabled in parliament, adding a new section that introduces a national security test for potential foreign takeover bids. The legislation is out for public comment and parliament will debate the new measures later this year. The government is aiming for them to be in place by end-2018. Impacts Recently trumpeted foreign investment deals secured by Ramaphosa are largely ‘pledges’ and may prove underwhelming. An above-inflation pay deal for Eskom workers will undermine investor confidence in Ramaphosa’s reform drive. Ongoing corruption allegations against key officials, including the deputy president, will undermine the government's anti-graft rhetoric.

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


Significance The signings come after the government revised a regulation issued earlier this year that in effect made renewable energy uncompetitive. This year, a series of regulation and policy reversals governing Indonesia’s energy and mining sectors have revealed an unstable regulatory environment, with a negative effect on foreign investment. Impacts Weak demand at oil and gas block auctions will put pressure on Jakarta to revise “gross split” production contracts further. Despite regulatory revisions for individual sectors, regulatory inconsistency will further dampen the investment climate. A cabinet reshuffle is likely soon. Regulatory controversies could dent Widodo’s policy credibility ahead of the 2018 regional and 2019 national elections.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.


Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choo-Hui Park ◽  
Hankyu Chu

Purpose The Government of Korea institutionalized the World Korean Business Convention (WKBC) and the World Korean Business Network (WKBN) to promote Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN and the critical variables affecting them. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring important variables affecting Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. It also seeks to examine the relationships among these variables to inquire upon a set of critical questions pertaining to Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland including the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the above purpose, critical variables influencing Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland were identified and four hypotheses that include the inquiries pertaining to the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN were developed in terms of those variables. The hypotheses were empirically tested using the survey data gathered from the participants of the annual WKBC. Findings The current research found that Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ evaluation of the investment climate in the homeland was not favorable. The WKBC was positively evaluated by Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment, There is discrepancy between expectations of the WKBN’s target group (i.e. Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment) and its performance for the group, and there is a difference between ascending and descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs in assessment of investment value of the homeland. Originality/value A majority of studies on diaspora entrepreneurship and development have so far cast light on ascending diaspora entrepreneurs while neglecting descending diaspora entrepreneurs. In this regard, the most interesting finding of the current study to both researchers and policymakers may be the fact that descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs assess the investment value of the homeland differently from ascending Korea diaspora entrepreneurs. The finding calls for further research on causes of the difference, and different natures of descending diaspora entrepreneurs compared to those of ascending diaspora entrepreneurs. Such research will enable policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategic diaspora policies that take the differences into consideration.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Subject The fall in foreign investment last year. Significance The government has launched a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (APIE) to buck a sharp drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year. Breaking with the country's long-standing sector-agnostic approach, the agency will seek to attract investment to specific sectors, including energy, public infrastructure and the food industry. Impacts A more business-friendly administration in Argentina could potentially divert FDI from Chile. Critics of the new FDI regulation maintain that it will dampen inflows. Efforts to attract investment in food and mining services represent a bid to diversify from mineral exports.


Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


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