Gas deal with Israel will bring Egypt major rents

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gas Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Firms ◽  
Energy Hub ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
One Step ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
The Military

Significance Increased gas production has encouraged Egyptian firms to seek out new partnerships. The main developers of Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas fields and an Egyptian firm are finalising a scheme to buy a majority stake in the company that owns the controversial pipeline connecting Israel and Egypt. The purchase, expected to be completed within the coming weeks, would unlock a 15-billion-dollar deal to export Israeli gas to Egypt over ten years and move Egypt one step closer to becoming a regional energy hub. Impacts The gas deal and recent energy liberalisation measures will further concentrate power in the hands of the military-backed government. International firms looking to capitalise on lucrative gas opportunities will share profits with military-led authorities. The partnership will strengthen ties between Egypt and Israel, which are already cooperating on security operations in the Sinai Peninsula. The government will control any popular opposition to the deal.

The concept of trust in disasters: the Slovenian experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-615
Author(s):  
Marjan Malesic
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of public trust in disaster response actors, i.e. the government, civilian disaster response institutions, the military, NGOs and the media. Design/methodology/approach The data source is the 2015–2016 Slovenian Public Opinion Survey, which used face-to-face interviews (computer-assisted personal interviewing software), and a standardised instrument (questionnaire). A two-stage probability sampling design with stratification at the first stage was applied. The first stage involved a probability proportional to size selection of 150 small areas (statistical areas), where the size measurement was a the number of adult persons in the Central Population Register. The second stage involved the simple random sampling of 12 persons from each of the 150 primary sampling units. A total of 1,024 adult residents participated in the survey. Findings The findings suggest that trust in the government under normal situations is low; however, it becomes slightly higher during disaster conditions. Civilian disaster response institutions (especially firemen and civil protection), the military and NGOs (humanitarian and other volunteer organisations) are highly trusted before and during disasters. Trust in the authorities and media to inform the public in a timely and comprehensive manner about the disaster is also relatively high. Research limitations/implications Perhaps in another period of research, disaster-related experiences of the population might be different, which could certainly change the survey results about trust. Nevertheless, the main finding that low pre-disaster trust can be recovered during a disaster by adequate performance of the institution is not jeopardised. Originality/value The survey results are original.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
General Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Major General

Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Infrastructure to boost Ivory Coast post-poll growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Judicial System ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Special Investigation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Violence ◽  
Energy Hub ◽  
Regional Energy

Subject Outlook for infrastructure in Ivory Coast Significance Minister for Petroleum and Energy Adama Toungara last month stated that Ivory Coast needs to invest 20 billion dollars in power infrastructure to 2030 to meet domestic demand and become a regional energy hub. The projection follows pledges from President Alassane Ouattara to accelerate infrastructure investment if he secures a second term in the October presidential elections. Impacts The Special Investigation and Examination Cell's failure to bring any 2010-11 atrocities to court will hurt trust in the judicial system. Opposition hardliners supporting former President Laurent Gbagbo could boycott the poll, risking some electoral violence. However, moderate mainstream opposition represents a larger constituency and is unlikely to opt for violence. Ouattara will avoid pushing reforms that affect the commercial interests of senior military figures, deferring reforms to the gold sector.

Muslim radicals face crackdown in Azerbaijan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Committee ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Weapon ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill's declared purpose is to prevent the import of foreign ideologies and to give law enforcement wider authority, in particular for 'special' security operations, arrests and searches. Its origins lie not in recent events in Nardaran but the destabilisation of the Middle East after the 'Arab spring', the chair of the parliamentary committee on religious organisations and public associations, Siyavush Novruzov, said. The secular regime sees a rising threat in radical Islam, represented by both Islamic State group (ISG) and a multitude of smaller groups. Impacts The government will strive for socioeconomic stability at all costs, expanding benefits and using the State Oil Fund's substantial reserves. The deteriorating regional security situation may undercut Azerbaijan's strategy of becoming a prime supplier of gas to Turkey and the EU. Baku will become more tempted to use anti-terrorism and anti-extremism as a political weapon against the domestic non-religious opposition. Azerbaijan's Shia form 75% of its Muslims, who form 97% of the population.

Trinidad and Tobago economy improves despite concerns

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Partnerships ◽  
Terrorism Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.

Persistent insecurity will test Burkinabe government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Community Support ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

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