Trinidad and Tobago economy improves despite concerns

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Partnerships ◽  
Terrorism Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.

Oman's fiscal woes could endanger the currency peg

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Patronage System ◽  
Local Firms

Subject Oman's economic outlook. Significance Oman faces a massive fiscal deficit in 2016, which government policies are unable to address. The budgetary shortfall in the first seven months of 2016 reached 4 billion Omani riyals (10 billion dollars), outstripping the projected full-year deficit of 3.3 billion riyals. Low oil prices have pushed down revenue, while the government struggles to control spending. Impacts A requirement to employ more Omanis will reduce the competitiveness of local firms. Popular resentment against expatriate workers (who constitute 40% of the population) is likely to rise. The government may curb some elite corruption and excess consumption, but the patronage system will remain entrenched. While 75-year-old Sultan Qaboos is popular, his successor will face difficult economic decisions, increasing the chances of serious unrest.

Underlying weakness will hold back Moroccan economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Account ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Energy Subsidy

Subject Economic outlook Significance The fall in oil prices has brought considerable benefits to Morocco's external account, as the country is heavily dependent on imported energy. However, its overall economic performance will be held back by fluctuations in agricultural output, the weakness of the European market, corruption and the deficiencies of the educational system. Impacts The current account deficit will fall below 1 billion dollars in 2016, according to the IMF, compared with almost 10 billion in 2012. Low oil prices have helped the government push through energy subsidy reforms, but pension reform will meet stiff resistance. The income from tourism and remittances will struggle to recover owing to euro-area weakness. Reform to the education system -- an essential element in boosting economic performance -- will be a thorny issue.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Saudi subsidy reforms unlikely to spark major protests

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political impact of subsidy reform. Significance Saudi Arabia introduced its first major cut to energy subsidies in January, leading to a rise in petrol, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity prices. Further cuts will be necessary to avert a fiscal crisis -- but with cheap energy seen as a basic part of the social contract between the government and the population, such measures are expected to have wide-reaching political repercussions. Impacts A decision to reverse subsidy cuts in the face of protest would undercut government credibility and reduce the prospect of further reforms. Yet persisting with subsidy reforms could damage government legitimacy and political capital among the youth and lower classes. Successful reforms will improve the long-term economic outlook, and the succession prospects of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Uruguay's economy will avoid recession, narrowly

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
Cellulose Plant ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The near-term economic outlook. Significance The statist model preferred by the governing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition clashes with the plan designed by President Tabare Vazquez and his economy and foreign ministers, Danilo Astori and Rodolfo Nin Novoa respectively, to try to attract greater inward investment. This adds to intra-coalition tensions after the defection of a centre-left legislator caused the government to lose its congressional majority. Impacts The fear of losing support may help to concentrate FA minds on smoothing over party splits. A new cellulose plant would boost economic growth but not diversification. The economy will avoid recession, but growth will not pick up strongly in the near term.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

Kazakh policymakers seek growth in non-oil sectors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large State ◽  
East And West ◽  
The Government ◽  
Improve Access ◽  
Debt Levels

Significance The modest GDP increase is attributed to government support for the economy as well as steadier oil prices and the launch of production at the Kashagan oil field. Low debt levels and substantial reserves give the government scope to invest in non-oil sectors. Impacts The large state role in the economy magnifies the risks of policy mismanagement. Continued investment in infrastructure will help position the country as a bridge between east and west. The Nurly Zhol programme will improve access to affordable houses but could have a distorting effect on the construction industry.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

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