Zambian debt crisis could become entrenched

Subject Zambian debt crisis. Significance Debt and corruption concerns have resulted in plummeting investor confidence and escalating domestic and international criticism of President Edgar Lungu's Patriotic Front (PF) government. In turn, the PF has accused the opposition United Party of National Development (UPND) of inciting riots. Impacts Increased mining taxes could see investment, productivity and revenue decline, further undermining budget targets. The kwacha could slide further against the US dollar, exacerbating Zambia’s debt burden. Government arrears with private sector contractors could increasingly go unpaid, while costs for importers may also increase.

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Koutsoupakis

PurposeWhile monetary autonomy is self-explanatory for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin with predetermined supply path, it is of great interest to probe into the monetary structures of Stablecoins. In these supply contracts and expands and capital restrictions apply due to the existence of reserves as the exchange rate arrangement adheres to a price rule.Design/methodology/approachEver since the launch of Bitcoin and its offspring, examination of cryptocurrencies' trading activity from the empirical finance viewpoint has received much attention and continues to do so. The particular monetary arrangements found in Stable cryptocurrencies (colloquially referred to as Stablecoins), however, have not been properly (1) classified and (2) studied within an empirical international finance and banking context. This paper provides an empirical framework analogous to Impossible Trinity for exploring monetary arrangements across Stablecoins wherein reserves are held as price stability is targeted.FindingsThe study findings of existence of the degree of achievement along the three dimensions of the Impossible Trinity hypothesis, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial openness for a representative sample able to cover all varieties of Stablecoins, provide fresh empirical insights and arguments to this growing literature with respect to the success of their embedded exchange rate stabilization mechanisms. While the hypothesis can be supported for all cryptocurrencies in question, the trade-off combination among exchange rate stability, capital openness and monetary independence varies with the categorical types of Stablecoins.Research limitations/implicationsIf Stable cryptocurrencies, therefore, claim the role of global monetary assets freed from sovereign limits and national boundaries, it is critical to explore whether they adhere to traditional monetary frameworks. It goes without saying that in this work the author does not use a complete catalogue of all the available Stablecoins, rather a complete catalogue of all the possible asset classes of Stablecoins. While there is a significant difficulty in finding Algorithmic Stablecoins and, so far, there is plethora of Stable Token initiatives, a broader sample to further examine these under this paper's empirical framework is suggested. Enrichment of the robustness analysis by constructing additional proxies, possibly building time series for the proposed cmo1 subindex and using additional estimation methods is encouraged.Practical implicationsStablecoins have been developed aiming to address the issue of excessive price variation in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Holders of Stablecoins enjoy the combined advantages of using a blockchain-based digital infrastructure in fulfilling the functions of store of value and media of exchange and of using a traditional currency, which merely plays the role of the unit of account (and in some circumstances the trusted reserve to which is convertible to). Understanding the varieties of Stablecoins and quantifying the components for success of their price stabilization may result in designing better Stablecoins.Social implicationsBlockchain and cryptocurrencies have introduced new challenges to money and banking. Cryptocurrencies, which independently float such as Bitcoin, have gained the interest so far due to price variation that allows for gains. But these should be by far not considered to be a substitute to traditional means of payment. Lately, Stablecoins have increasingly gained attention for that USD Tether/Bitcoin pair (a Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar at parity) has outrun the US dollar/Bitcoin pair as the most traded pair in digital exchanges marking the strong position and high demand for Stablecoins.Originality/valueThis approach uncovers the varieties of Stablecoins with respect to their monetary constraints compared to the rest of the cryptocurrencies, which independently float. In this paper, the author provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of the exchange rate mechanisms conditional on Stablecoin asset classes accompanied with an empirical study from the monetary viewpoint. This is the first work in this attempt. The empirical framework employed is analogous to the traditional theory of international monetary economics referred to as Impossible Trinityz.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/JES-06-2020-0279


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-234
Author(s):  
Kelly Strong ◽  
Scott Glick ◽  
Gazala Syhail

Purpose This study aims to focus on the factors influencing project cost at US public universities and compares them to similar projects in the US private sector. It also presents an analysis of the potential reasons for the difference or similarities in the two sectors. Design/methodology/approach This study utilized an exploratory, comparative case study methodology performed on a small sample of public university projects and two sources of private sector cost data. Findings The results infer that most of the US public projects have comparable costs to that of their US private sector counterparts. The cost data from the university projects were further examined to explore if there were any possible relationships between the types of delivery methods used, sustainability certifications achieved and two project performance indexes – cost and duration. Research limitations/implications A more thorough analysis with a larger dataset is required to make generalizable conclusions. However, the process used in this study does provide a good overview of how facility managers could organize their own cost comparison study to evaluate their project expenditures. Practical implications This research provides a starting point for future research into the topic of US public sector project costs when compared to US private sector counterparts and the impact of delivery system and sustainability on cost of US public sector projects. Originality/value Research on this topic is scant; as such, this paper provides a starting point for future research and offers insights into the potential impacts of project delivery method and choice of following a sustainability certification option.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Haiping Qiu ◽  
Min Zhao

Purpose The world currency is endowed with two inherent contradictions, namely, the general contradiction of all currencies and the special contradiction between the quality and quantity of the world currency. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In the wake of the Second World War, the USA, with its strong economic and military strength, established an international monetary system centered on the US dollar (USD). This gave USD the status of “world currency” and bounded it to the US imperialist hegemony with mutual integration and interaction, making it possible for USD capital to conduct international exploitation and wealth plundering extensively around the world. Findings The contradiction between the capital logic and the power logic, which is inherent in capital accumulation models of the new imperialism, also indicates the inevitable decline of USD. Originality/value This constitutes an important feature of the new imperialism. However, as a sovereign currency, USD has inextricable and inherent contradictions while exercising its function as the world currency.


Subject The longevity and outlook for currency pegs. Significance The abandonment of the Swiss franc's three-year-old peg to the euro on January 15 put into question the longevity of pegged exchange rate arrangements. It also highlights how unusual such arrangements are today. Impacts The SNB will still have to continue to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to stabilise the Swiss franc. The SNB move will not cause Danish authorities to stop pegging the Danish krone to the euro. The near- and medium-term longevity of the Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar will not be questioned.


Significance Modest progress is underway in rebalancing towards more consumption and less reliance on exports and investment. GDP growth is on target, helped by buoyant housing and automobile sales. Many of these have been financed by debt though, adding to concerns that prioritising GDP growth has left the economy too reliant on credit. The debt burden is a concern, particularly corporate debt. Impacts The renminbi is at a six-year low and higher US rates could weaken it further, spooking markets. Foreign reserves are at a five-year low; while import cover is still strong, eroding macro fundamentals are a concern. Strong high-tech and equipment manufacturing growth must be built upon to develop a larger and more sophisticated private sector. The focus on growth targets set in 2010 risks debt resolution costs rising as they are deferred.


Significance The September 1 blast at the Cape Canaveral launching site is a setback for Musk's goal of breaking open the market for government and private sector space launch contracts. SpaceX has attempted to demonstrate that it can compete with established launch companies, which are backed by US aerospace giants Lockheed Martin and Boeing. SpaceX's entrepreneurial methods have suggested significant disruption to the global launching business. Impacts Defence procurement reform would boost the US military's capacity to leverage private sector technological innovations. Efforts to reduce US dependence on Russian-manufactured rockets may lose steam if hawkish Senator John McCain is not re-elected. Washington's deployment of THAAD missile defence systems to South Korea will spur Beijing's efforts to develop anti-satellite capabilities.


Significance The island is in a debt crisis, with the governor acknowledging that it cannot pay off all its debt. While the overall debt burden is not excessive by national standards, a shrinking economy and workforce has made servicing those debts impossible. Given the island's uncertain political status, how to restructure is an open question. Impacts The inability of PREPA to invest in capital projects increases the market potential for home solar panels. The drought response will look to the example of California, but with significantly fewer resources. The crisis may acquire prominence via the Democratic primary, with Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley visiting the island.


Significance The US indictment accuses the St Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, its backers and staff of interfering in the election by running false social media accounts. This account of Russian trolling comes soon after US and UK accusations of Kremlin responsibility for a June 2017 cyberattack that disrupted computer systems in Ukraine and elsewhere. Impacts Private sector firms will play a growing role in attributing state-sponsored cyber attacks. Governments will become increasingly reliant on private sector capabilities, whose distance can save them diplomatic embarrassment. 'Exploits' made public could be used in hostile cyber operations.


Significance US President Donald Trump declined to certify on October 13 that continued sanctions relief for Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in the US national interest. Reintroducing nuclear-related sanctions targeting third-country companies doing business with Iran -- ‘secondary sanctions’ -- could have a significant impact on European investments in Iran. Impacts With financing a requirement for business engagement, banks’ hesitation to engage with Iran will curb European investments. Transatlantic sanctions policy coordination is likely to deteriorate further, with the private sector caught in the crossfire. High-value hydrocarbons and aircraft contracts may make investing in Iran worth the risk for large firms, but other sectors may not follow.


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