UK ambitions in South-east Asia will grow post-Brexit

Subject UK political, security and economic ties with South-east Asia. Significance China earlier this month reacted angrily to UK Defence Minister Gavin Williamson’s suggestion that a new UK aircraft carrier would be sent to the Pacific and that the United Kingdom would use “lethal force” against countries violating international law. Williamson indicated late last year that the United Kingdom might seek a more permanent military presence in South-east Asia. Impacts Post-Brexit, the United Kingdom will aim to negotiate bilateral and multilateral trade deals with South-east Asian countries. The United Kingdom will station more diplomatic personnel in South-east Asia, including to the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. Increased UK presence in the South China Sea would be welcomed by the United States and its security partners.

Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.


Subject Taiwan's trade policy. Significance Washington's abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a comprehensive free trade agreement between economies on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, is prompting Taiwan to seek a new direction in trade policy. Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, is seeking to increase trade and investment with partners other than China -- particularly with India and South-east Asia -- and pursue a bilateral trade agreement with the United States. Tsai's Presidential Office has already established a special office to promote trade links with India and South-east Asia. Impacts Taiwan will be subject to intense China-US rivalry, with both seeking to draw the island away from the other. Beijing will put pressure on Taipei to resume cross-Strait economic expansion efforts. Trade with India will expand, but will still be dwarfed by exports to China. Tsai's 'New Southbound Policy' initiative is unlikely to reduce Taiwan’s reliance on the China market significantly.


Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 233-245
Author(s):  
Yasmine Dominguez-Whitehead ◽  
Felix Maringe

PurposeThis paper provides a cross-national analysis of PhD supervision models, milestones and examination procedures in order to compare PhD programs and their practices.Design/methodology/approachA comparative approach is employed, which systematically interrogates PhD supervision models, milestones and examination procedures in the United Kingdom, South Africa and the United States via a comprehensive review of the practices and literature.FindingsThe findings indicate the ramifications of the different approaches and highlight the benefits and drawbacks associated with the different models.Originality/valueBy making explicit the dominant supervision models, milestones and examination procedures that exist in the United Kingdom, South Africa and the United States, the authors shed light on the somewhat obscure path to earning a PhD degree.


Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.


Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.


Subject MiFID II implementation and compliance Significance The EU’s flagship investor protection reform -- the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) -- will come into force on January 3, 2018, Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner responsible for financial stability, confirmed on October 17, saying that there would not be a further delay. Despite already having been given an extra year's extension, banks are struggling to comply in time because of the directive's complexity. Regulators, too, are behind in expanding their capacity to enforce it. Impacts Firms across the world that do any of their business within the EU will have to comply, not just those registered in the EU. All firms trading in financial instruments must comply but those where this is a small part of their business may be caught unawares. MiFID II will come into effect before the United Kingdom leaves the EU and is likely to be written into UK law post-Brexit. The United States is keen to deregulate, but US firms whose EU activity is not compliant will be punished, possibly harming US-EU relations.


Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.


Subject Emerging US policy towards South-east Asia under the Trump administration. Significance On May 5, the 30th US-ASEAN Dialogue opens in Washington, to be co-chaired by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. This follows Vice-President Mike Pence’s visit to Indonesia of April 20-22, the first to South-east Asia by a cabinet-level official from the Trump administration. The White House used that occasion to announce that President Donald Trump will attend the APEC meeting in Vietnam and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in the Philippines in November. Impacts Trump may co-chair a US-ASEAN Summit with Philippines president on the EAS’s margins, which could improve frayed bilateral ties. Congress could frustrate any Trump administration plans to sanction countries with trade surpluses with the United States. An ASEAN-US free trade agreement is unlikely soon. Trump has invited Vietnam’s prime minister to visit Washington later, which could make Hanoi more bullish towards China.


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