Omani debt may face further downgrades

Subject Outlook for Omani debt. Significance Over the last two years, all three major credit rating agencies have cut Oman’s sovereign debt rating to junk status (meaning a rating below BBB-), most recently Moody’s on March 5. This has happened despite strengthening oil prices and positive internal developments, because of a growing debt load, resistance to fiscal reform and governance concerns. Impacts Funds forced to sell Omani bonds, due to their junk status, will buy BBB-rated sovereigns. A pause in Omani bond issuance could raise market demand for similarly rated sovereign issues in the region, such as Bahrain. Negatively rated oil-exporting sovereigns may speed up fiscal reforms to avoid Oman’s fate.

Significance Days before this announcement, the government asked Congress to approve a primary deficit of up to 96.65 billion reais (some 1.5% of GDP) for this year. The sharp deterioration in fiscal performance in recent years led the three main credit rating agencies to strip Brazil of its investment grade status between September 2015 and February 2016. A profound and prolonged recession and dysfunctional politics that make it difficult to address Brazil's fiscal shortcomings have also increased concerns over the sustainability of the country's sovereign debt. Impacts The depth of the current crisis could lead to political conditions for bolder economic reforms. However, that best-case scenario is out of reach for the current government. Even fortunate future governments would only enjoy a narrow window of opportunity to seek ambitious reforms.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Gaillard

Purpose – This paper aims to shed new light on the inability of credit rating agencies (CRAs) to forecast the recent defaults and so-called quasi-defaults of rich countries. It also describes how Moody’s sovereign rating methodology has been modified – and could be further improved – to solve this problem. Design/methodology/approach – After converting bond yields into yield-implied ratings, accuracy ratios are computed to compare the respective performances of CRAs and market participants. Then Iceland’s and Greece’s ratings at the beginning of the Great Recession are estimated while accounting for the parameters included in the new methodology implemented by Moody’s in 2013. Findings – Market participants outperformed Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in terms of anticipating the sovereign debt crisis that hit several European countries starting in 2008. However, the new methodology implemented by Moody’s should lead to more conservative and accurate sovereign ratings. Originality/value – The chronic inability of CRAs to anticipate public debt crises in rich countries is dangerous because the countries affected – which are generally rated in the investment-grade category – are substantially downgraded, amplifying the sovereign debt crisis. This study is the first to demonstrate that Moody’s has learned from its recent failures. In addition, it recommends ways to detect serious threats to the creditworthiness of high-income countries.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
McBride Peter Nkhalamba

PurposeThis study is a comparative analysis of the magnitude of economic growth as a key determinant of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings in 30 countries in Africa, Europe, Asia and Latin America from 2010 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis applies the fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) panel least squares (PLS) models.FindingsThe authors find that the magnitude economic coefficients are marginally small for African countries compared to other developing countries in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Results of the probit and logit binary estimation models show positive coefficients for economic growth sub-factors for non-African countries (developing and developed) compared to negative coefficients for African countries.Practical implicationsThese findings mean that, an increase in economic growth in Africa does not significantly increase the likelihood that sovereign credit ratings will be upgraded. This implies that there is lack of uniformity in the application of the economic growth determinant despite the claims of a consistent framework by rating agencies. Thus, macroeconomic factors are relatively less important in determining country's risk profile in Africa than in other developing and developed countries.Originality/valueFirst, studies that investigate the accuracy of sovereign credit rating indicators and risk factors in Africa are rare. This study is a key literature at the time when the majority of African countries are exploring the window of sovereign bonds as an alternative funding model to the traditional concessionary borrowings from multilateral institutions. On the other hand, the persistent poor rating is driving the cost of sovereign bonds to unreasonably high levels, invariably threatening their hopes of diversifying funding options. Second, there is criticism that the rating assessments of the credit rating agencies are biased in favour of developed countries and there is a gap in literature on studies that explore the whether the credit rating agencies are biased against African countries. This paper thus explores the rationale behind the African Union Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.631 (XXVIII) adopted by the 28th Ordinary Session of the African Union held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in January 2017 (African Union, 2017), directing its specialized governance agency, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), to provide support to its Member States in the field of international credit rating agencies. The Assembly of African Heads of State and Government highlight that African countries are facing the challenges of credit downgrades despite an average positive economic growth. Lastly, the paper makes contribution to the argument that the majority of African countries are unfairly rated by international credit rating agencies, raising a discussion of the possibility of establishing a Pan-African credit rating institution.


Significance Poland's rating, therefore, remains at A2, despite persistent concerns about the policies of its one-year-old nationalist government, in particular, the threats to the independence of the country's institutions. Impacts Central Europe's inflation rates are at unprecedentedly low levels, with Poland and Hungary still experiencing deflation. Central bank action will be key, particularly the ECB, which disappointed markets on September 8 by downplaying the need for more stimulus. This is despite oil prices rising sharply since mid-January, with Brent crude nearly 70% up to just over 47 dollars per barrel. Investors' 'reach for yield' amid negative bond yields across Europe and Japan will fuel concerns about an EM debt market 'bubble'. Rating agencies' assessments of sovereign creditworthiness are being disregarded as backward-looking and revealing little new information.


Subject Outlook for the Solis administration during the second half of its term. Significance President Luis Guillermo Solis is currently Latin America's least popular president, due largely to his perceived inability to legislate in the face of opposition obstruction. While economic performance has shown signs of strengthening over the course of this year, this has done little for the government's standing. Impacts Opposition control of key positions in the legislature will exacerbate government challenges. Uncertainty about fiscal reform will weigh heavily on the growth outlook. Low international oil prices will continue to act as a deflationary driver.


Subject The latest annual report of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on credit ratings agencies (CRAs). Significance The latest annual report of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on credit rating agencies (CRAs) suggests that practices that contributed to the 2007-08 financial crisis persist, and that the prevailing CRA business model continues to incentivise high credit ratings rather than accurate ones. The underlying conflict of interest inherent in the prevailing CRA business model is well-recognised, but there is a lack of broad political support to address the problem. Impacts The report will increase pressure on the SEC to strengthen its CRA enforcement policy. The report is shaping the terms of political debate and providing fodder, especially for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. Renewed financial market turbulence and strains in the global economy could provide fresh tests for CRAs.


Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.


Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.


2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Bian

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging Chinese credit rating agencies (CRAs), and their development, regulatory regime and challenges. The Chinese financial system has made many improvements; in particular, the regulatory regime has reached a more effective level. However, it should be admitted that some aspects still require further development. Compared with other developed markets, the Chinese credit rating industry is still young. Under these circumstances, questions are raised about the performance of the CRAs in China. Whether the legal framework is effective enough? A further point, in terms of the development, is what are the major obstacles lying ahead for the Chinese CRAs? Design/methodology/approach – This paper will concentrate on the study of Chinese CRAs. Starting with a brief introduction and analysis on the Chinese CRAs, it will further examine the rating methodologies of the Chinese CRAs. Following this, the regulatory regimes will be analyzed in detail, from the perspectives of the securities, banking and insurance market. Moreover, the paper will identify the key problems under the current regulatory regime. Last but not least, a conclusion and some future suggestions for the development of the regulatory regime will also be made based on the earlier observations and study. Findings – The current development stage and future reform requirement of the Chinese credit rating industry. Originality/value – Provide a full dimension and in depth analysis on the Chinese credit rating industry.


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