Sudan's military will leverage foreign relations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Though Sudan’s crisis is essentially domestic -- with the military holding on to power after the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir despite widespread popular calls for civilian government -- the TMC is actively looking for ways to exploit foreign engagement in the crisis in its favour. Impacts Economic pressures are likely to prompt the TMC to seek further Arab financial assistance. Security forces will continue to use repressive measures against protestors. Domestic political resistance to the TMC may deepen.

Military to retain domestic security role in Guatemala

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Military ◽  
Focus Point

Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.

Jerusalem deal will have limited impact on violence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
Jewish Holidays ◽  
The Military ◽  
Temple Mount ◽  
The Temple

Significance His comments come as Israel and Jordan (which is the custodian of the site) move forward with plans to reduce tension at the site, which has been a flashpoint of conflict for decades, most recently last September, when Muslim and Jewish holidays overlapped. The area, known to Muslims as al-Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and Jews as the Temple Mount, is one of the most contentious issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians. Impacts Tensions in late April around the Passover holiday (April 22-30) could escalate as nationalist Jews attempt to pray on the Temple Mount. The agreement strengthens Jordan's claim to custodianship of Jerusalem's holy sites while undermining Palestinian claims to Jerusalem. Jordanian-Israeli trust and cooperation will expand, especially in the military and security realms. A violation of the agreement or provocative visits by Israeli MPs could trigger clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. Renewed violence could undermine Israeli-Jordanian diplomatic and military cooperation, and the tentative Israeli-Turkish detente.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the southern insurgency. Significance Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow. Impacts The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans. Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process. Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.

Regional issues frustrate Nairobi’s foreign strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrocarbon Exploration ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Scale Integration ◽  
Fatal Attack ◽  
Scale Integration ◽  
The Military

Significance The trip comes shortly after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Somalia can pursue a claim against Kenya over a maritime boundary dispute. The ruling was the latest in a series of foreign relations defeats that have called into question the effectiveness of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s foreign policy. Kenya focuses on building regional support for its military action in Somalia and promoting regional integration through large-scale integration projects, while diversifying its portfolio of international partners and marshalling African criticism of perceived Western hypocrisy. However, a series of challenges, including a fatal attack on the military in Somalia and failure to secure the chair of the African Union (AU) Commission, have undermined confidence in the competence of the Kenyatta government on the international stage. Impacts Fears about corruption and political instability discourage regional neighbours from implementing touted infrastructure plans. Kenya will vigorously pursue the maritime border case as it has already granted hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation rights. Regional security considerations may shift as the military effort in Somalia winds down.

Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

New military rule is entrenching itself in Chad

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Chad Basin ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Significance Although Deby and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Chad’s political transition from military to civilian rule, the meeting’s emphasis was on security issues in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, in Libya, and within Chad itself. Impacts Deby is investing substantial energy in foreign relations, not just with France but also with neighbouring states. If Deby and the CMT ultimately decide to prolong the transition, foreign objections will likely be fairly minimal and brief. Despite outcry from human rights groups over the security forces’ treatment of protesters in April and May, accountability is unlikely.

Emboldened Boko Haram will undermine Nigerian military

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Leadership Turnover ◽  
Operational Efficacy ◽  
The Military

Subject Boko Haram outlook. Significance The Nigerian Air Force announced on August 20 that it carried out “massive” bombing attacks earlier this month against Boko Haram forces regrouping around their former stronghold in the Sambisa Forest. This follows soon after the military allegedly killed Momodu Bama, second-in command to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Yet despite these renewed military efforts, the Nigerian army faces two still-capable Boko Haram factions, each of which has staged multiple deadly attacks in recent months. Impacts The Islamic State-linked Boko Haram faction has emerged as the most dangerous security threat in the Lake Chad Basin in the short term. The military will struggle to differentiate between Boko Haram factions, undermining operational efficacy. Leadership turnover within the security forces will not overcome the systemic problem of under-equipped and underprepared troops. Neighbouring countries, such as Niger and Cameroon, will bolster border security amid worsening Boko Haram and other criminal threats.

Egypt’s police will try gradually to regain strength

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Disobedience ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The Political ◽  
State Control ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Subject The role and influence of Egypt's security services. Significance After the 2011 revolution, the security forces found themselves marginalised, losing their political sway, largely to the benefit of the military. The army’s decision-making and economic pre-eminence has moved from strength to strength, illustrated by last month’s constitutional amendments. The security services have, however, reprised many of their previous deployments and remain vital to ensuring tight state control. Impacts The political architecture and balance of power within the state are unlikely to shift in the medium term. Civil disobedience or any type of mobilisation will receive a harsh response. Ever more repressive tactics will heighten citizens’ sense of indignity. Without help from the military, the police would still be overwhelmed by a recurrence of protests on the scale of 2011.

Election results will intensify Algeria's crises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Opposite Effect ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Military

Significance The elections revived political parties that had been marginalised by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s administration and had been criticised by the ‘Hirak’ protest movement. Tebboune had intended the polls to put an end to the Hirak protesters and to concentrate his power but they have had the opposite effect and, rather than resolving Algeria’s political crisis, they have made it worse. Impacts A parliament at odds with the president will mean that Algeria will be unable to implement policies to address its economic crisis. The persistence of the Hirak movement raises the chance of a confrontation with security forces, which could lead to widespread unrest. Tebboune may resign under pressure from the military if economic conditions worsen and demonstrations become violent.

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