Military to retain domestic security role in Guatemala

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Military ◽  
Focus Point

Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Drug haul highlights Costa Rica’s security challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Infrastructure

Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.

Army dependence will hinder law enforcement in Mexico

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Apparent Lack ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Slow Progress

Subject The militarisation of policing in Mexico. Significance On December 8, Defence Minister Salvador Cienfuegos questioned the government’s domestic security strategy, saying that insecurity and violent crime “are not issues you can resolve with gunfire”. His remarks come ten years after the launch of a military campaign against organised crime, championed by former President Felipe Calderon (2006-12). Since then, criticism has grown from the military regarding the lack of progress made in restructuring and improving the effectiveness of civilian security forces, and the apparent lack of political will to regulate the role of the army, which is still at the heart of the government’s security policy. Impacts Frustration within the armed forces will continue for the remainder of the administration as police reform makes slow progress. The forces’ continued lack of legal protection in carrying out their law enforcement duties will leave them exposed to allegations of abuse. Without strengthening the justice system's ability to keep convicts in prison, no security forces will succeed against organised crime.

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Panama security gains will be challenging to maintain

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
International Security ◽  
Central American ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace And Security ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Novel Approaches

Subject Despite being situated in one of the world's most notorious drug trafficking regions, Panama enjoys comparative peace and security. Significance Panama is emerging as an outlier in Central America, with homicide rates falling as a result of novel approaches to dealing with gang violence and drug trafficking. This raises questions about whether the country offers lessons that could be applied elsewhere in the region. Impacts Panama will remain at the forefront of international security cooperation. Corruption and public pressure for a tough approach could undermine security gains in Panama. There is little prospect of other Central American countries being able to replicate Panama's security strategy.

Jerusalem deal will have limited impact on violence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
Jewish Holidays ◽  
The Military ◽  
Temple Mount ◽  
The Temple

Significance His comments come as Israel and Jordan (which is the custodian of the site) move forward with plans to reduce tension at the site, which has been a flashpoint of conflict for decades, most recently last September, when Muslim and Jewish holidays overlapped. The area, known to Muslims as al-Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and Jews as the Temple Mount, is one of the most contentious issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians. Impacts Tensions in late April around the Passover holiday (April 22-30) could escalate as nationalist Jews attempt to pray on the Temple Mount. The agreement strengthens Jordan's claim to custodianship of Jerusalem's holy sites while undermining Palestinian claims to Jerusalem. Jordanian-Israeli trust and cooperation will expand, especially in the military and security realms. A violation of the agreement or provocative visits by Israeli MPs could trigger clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. Renewed violence could undermine Israeli-Jordanian diplomatic and military cooperation, and the tentative Israeli-Turkish detente.

Persistent insecurity will test Burkinabe government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Community Support ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.

Sudan's military will leverage foreign relations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Though Sudan’s crisis is essentially domestic -- with the military holding on to power after the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir despite widespread popular calls for civilian government -- the TMC is actively looking for ways to exploit foreign engagement in the crisis in its favour. Impacts Economic pressures are likely to prompt the TMC to seek further Arab financial assistance. Security forces will continue to use repressive measures against protestors. Domestic political resistance to the TMC may deepen.

Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the southern insurgency. Significance Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow. Impacts The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans. Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process. Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.

Army is a blunt tool for global counterterrorism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Blunt Tool ◽  
Issue Public ◽  
The Military ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Subject The implications of deploying troops domestically as a counter to terrorism. Significance In the aftermath of the attacks against the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, France deployed thousands of troops to patrol the streets and protect potential targets. The role of the military in domestic counterterrorism is a long-standing and controversial issue. Public pressure on decisionmakers to respond to terrorist attacks can be immense, yet the effectiveness of deploying the military domestically on a large scale is debatable. Impacts Large-scale troop deployments can have a negative effect on tourism. More visible patrols provide more targets for terrorists. They could also alienate those communities whose support is needed to combat extremism.

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